amoeba's Account Talk

[Handballer]

Re: going short into weekend - risk trade worked - another coming up next wk!!!

I mean a risk trade for those who want it.........we will have large volume, seasonal end of may positive, against a jobs report that was decidedly missed negative last month.......could be a big gain, or a big loss, for whoever has their IFT's, or TSP in the C/S funds already. Not me.....I'm done for the month

And - the F-fund share price rat-F'd me - so I was slightly down instead of up on friday close. Oh well, I know that happens.

Anyone in the I-fund is so toasted that they must just lenjoy beating themselves in the face with the claw end of a hammer - in front of a mirror.

I guess thats better than someone eating your face and shedding it to pieces.

 

[amoeba]

Calamity until late June assured. Oh the humanity!!!

Mr. Sentiment_Survey is getting his hat handed to him, before being kicked out the window:

Friday's trade was no joke, but it was muted, a mere 30 pts in the SPY down after a jobs report like that? And a revision to the past month?

If there ever was ability to predict the coming of a pitch black trading day, this is it - no time to even say get out - it could be as soon as monday (June 4, 2012). No room in the lifeboats for anyone still in the market. You'd have better luck surviving the last run of the Hindenberg. Oh the humanity!!!

 

[Boghie]

Re: Calamity until late June assured. Oh the humanity!!!

Mr. Sentiment_Survey is getting his hat handed to him, before being kicked out the window:

Friday's trade was no joke, but it was muted, a mere 30 pts in the SPY down after a jobs report like that? And a revision to the past month?

If there ever was ability to predict the coming of a pitch black trading day, this is it - no time to even say get out - it could be as soon as monday (June 4, 2012). No room in the lifeboats for anyone still in the market. You'd have better luck surviving the last run of the Hindenberg. Oh the humanity!!!

Amoeba, we aren't even at the low of last summer's swoon.

 

[alevin]

Re: Calamity until late June assured. Oh the humanity!!!

But we are on bar 8 down on DeMark weekly count. One more to go-weekly. After that, I'll reassess.

 

[ILoveTDs]

Re: Calamity until late June assured. Oh the humanity!!!

Mr. Sentiment_Survey is getting his hat handed to him, before being kicked out the window:

Friday's trade was no joke, but it was muted, a mere 30 pts in the SPY down after a jobs report like that? And a revision to the past month?

If there ever was ability to predict the coming of a pitch black trading day, this is it - no time to even say get out - it could be as soon as monday (June 4, 2012). No room in the lifeboats for anyone still in the market. You'd have better luck surviving the last run of the Hindenberg. Oh the humanity!!!

Amoeba - I'm half with you and half not. I agree this market is going to continue to tank. However, their is always room on the life boat. For those that want to cut their losses and come to the dark side (or as many of you call it "the lilly pad" I prefer dark side), I welcome you with open arms. For those that want to gamble their retirement away and are to stubborn to walk away from a stone cold Black Jack table because a good hand is bound to come around, best of luck to you. I however will be at the bar having a beer waiting for the BJ table to warm back up.

Finally, IMHO Monday will not be to late, many players sold Friday not wanting to hold over the weekend. They will come to their sense's and realize its just a job's report and buy back in Monday. Additionally we have had 4 down days in a row, a good hand is due. It will tank after that though LOL.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Calamity until late June assured. Oh the humanity!!!

Capitulation has passed - I will not surrender to fear. A huge rally is approaching. I think the RSI must be below 22 again and we will bounce sharply higher. We are now seeing the great buy signal for 2012. I'll be buying more coal.

 

[Handballer]

Re: Calamity until late June assured. Oh the humanity!!!

Capitulation has passed - I will not surrender to fear. A huge rally is approaching. I think the RSI must be below 22 again and we will bounce sharply higher. We are now seeing the great buy signal for 2012. I'll be buying more coal.

Thanks for the words Birch. I see a 5% rally this coming week. That makes me happy

 

[Boghie]

Re: Calamity until late June assured. Oh the humanity!!!

We are at or near a buy point.
At least in U.S. Equities.
Watch ContrarianJeff.

The only real issue is politics. I think President Obama is out of ammo and the FED will not be rescuing us from a normal correction. So we will float lower, stabilize, and then if the politics work out we will boom like 2009. For those of us with the ability to hold our water during the chop it probably isn't a bad time to be holding or buying. For me, my Dramamine (G Fund) will help me sail through June and my Big Hemi (C/S Funds) will get me to where I want to be - even if it has to drag the F Fund.

In the end, I will start migrating back into a more equities balanced allocation later this month.

Don't want to miss all of the rally, do I?

 

[amoeba]

PATIENCE, everyone (then maybe buy)

We are at or near a buy point.
At least in U.S. Equities.
Watch ContrarianJeff.

The only real issue is politics. I think President Obama is out of ammo and the FED will not be rescuing us from a normal correction. So we will float lower, stabilize, and then if the politics work out we will boom like 2009. For those of us with the ability to hold our water during the chop it probably isn't a bad time to be holding or buying. For me, my Dramamine (G Fund) will help me sail through June and my Big Hemi (C/S Funds) will get me to where I want to be - even if it has to drag the F Fund.

In the end, I will start migrating back into a more equities balanced allocation later this month.

Don't want to miss all of the rally, do I?

PATIENCE, everyone, until the knife-catchers realize what Boghie predicts (FED is meeting ~3rd week this June), and get washed out. Look for the ^VIX north of 30

 

[ILoveTDs]

Re: Calamity until late June assured. Oh the humanity!!!

Finally, IMHO Monday will not be to late, many players sold Friday not wanting to hold over the weekend. They will come to their sense's and realize its just a job's report and buy back in Monday. Additionally we have had 4 down days in a row, a good hand is due.

Day's like this I'm glad we have the IFT limit, because I would have soooo been in the S Fund today if we had unlimited IFTs.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Calamity until late June assured. Oh the humanity!!!

Hhhhhhmmmm...

The market may have moved before the end of the month. Nice to have something in to catch the early returns - which are usually the best you are going to get.

I'm absolutely paralyzed on whether to move in more or not. Ahem, I think I'll sit out a few days and see if the thing sustains. Making 40%+ of these gains makes me a happy guy. Losing 40%- of a decline was completely workable. What I like is that I can be a crappy market timer and make money!!! That's me:cheesy:.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Calamity until late June assured. Oh the humanity!!!

Hhhhhhmmmm...

The market may have moved before the end of the month. Nice to have something in to catch the early returns - which are usually the best you are going to get.

I'm absolutely paralyzed on whether to move in more or not. Ahem, I think I'll sit out a few days and see if the thing sustains. Making 40%+ of these gains makes me a happy guy. Losing 40%- of a decline was completely workable. What I like is that I can be a crappy market timer and make money!!! That's me:cheesy:.

I gave it a whirl on a 2-day move (now 45% in C/S/I); I had originally thought bond prices would bounce back, but put 10% in S as a hedge and glad I did. I'm just trying to pick of a couple tenths of a percent this month - not expecting a whole bunch outta this move.

 

[Handballer]

Re: Calamity until late June assured. Oh the humanity!!!

Hhhhhhmmmm...

The market may have moved before the end of the month. Nice to have something in to catch the early returns - which are usually the best you are going to get.

I'm absolutely paralyzed on whether to move in more or not. Ahem, I think I'll sit out a few days and see if the thing sustains. Making 40%+ of these gains makes me a happy guy.Losing 40%- of a decline was completely workable. What I like is that I can be a crappy market timer and make money!!! That's me.

I wish I had your skill.

 

[amoeba]

did not like what BB had to say -

sounds like no near term stimulus:

cold shower on the market until I hear different/better; 250,000 new jobs would help; another <100K showing, with slowing/unstable international markets, would not. Started averaging out already. Held most of my pathetic 0.14% gain yesterday; still about as much as my average good month; when I'm not losing. Nice to see something to the left of the decimal place that isn't negative......

 

[Boghie]

Re: did not like what BB had to say -

Amoeba, da'Boyz really don't care about Bernanke's helicopters anymore.

They are looking past him and toward November.

This summer will be a wash.

 

[amoeba]

lame job claims + market goes up anyway = free lunch exit time

sweet:

poor economic data (job claims, euro bond rates) and some sort of wierd bounce with late afternoon high volume buying anyway. No explanation from me.

But I'll take the gain, or errr, the loss (I lost 0.1% of the gain since moving 45% in); and sit on a pile of F-fund until it reaches another 65 year high later this month. Or maybe it won't.

 

[nnuut]

Re: lame job claims + market goes up anyway = free lunch exit time

This:

June 14, 2012, 1:56 p.m. EDT U.S. stocks rise as data fan Fed hopes

By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks jumped Thursday as economic data fed into investors’ hopes of further moves next week by the Federal Reserve to bolster the economy. U.S. stocks rise as data fan Fed hopes - Market Snapshot - MarketWatch

 

[amoeba]

Toldyaso - next prediction: -4% more negative for rest of june 2012

This:

June 14, 2012, 1:56 p.m. EDT U.S. stocks rise as data fan Fed hopes

By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks jumped Thursday as economic data fed into investors’ hopes of further moves next week by the Federal Reserve to bolster the economy. U.S. stocks rise as data fan Fed hopes - Market Snapshot - MarketWatch

Yeah, right. Told ya so. Now get ready to go where no man has gone before - well in the last year, namely, below 1,200 in the SPY this year. But don't worry, if you stick your head in the sand until the end of the month, you'll only lose another 4% (~1,280) since the "hopers" that politicans/centralbanks continue throwing anything that sticks - will hang on for awhile.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Toldyaso - next prediction: -4% more negative for rest of june 2012

Amoeba,

Nnuut will only lose about 1.6% if the market 'crashes' 4%. And, he is sitting at 6%.
But he stands to make something if the market decides to boom.

You have to be correct, NNuut doesn't. That is why being 100% in or 100% out doesn't work. You have to be lucky to win. Sitting in a 100% 'G Fund' allocation in mid March 2009 was a killer. Sitting 40% in the market for October 2008 hurt.

 

[nnuut]

Re: Toldyaso - next prediction: -4% more negative for rest of june 2012

40% = -1.02% today better than more>>>>>>>>>>>>>