amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Re: Toldyaso - next prediction: -4% more negative for rest of june 2012

40% = -1.02% today better than more>>>>>>>>>>>>>

To clarify - the negative 4% was not for our moderator, but for the equity funds and SPY (C) in particular; which is flopping from it's highs in the 1,400's back when? late April.....to 1,300 and change now.

I'm holding firm......1,280 by short week's end; high volatility on low volume before the holiday weekend, so alot of the drop will come early.....as it is today.

I could be right (or wrong). If our leaders are any indication (3/30 have >30% in ANY equity fund), there ain't a whole lot of optimisim out there. Wait for the next, bigger, dip to buy. Equities? I say see ya - until much later (November).

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Toldyaso - next prediction: -4% more negative for rest of june 2012

At #547 on the tracker you are 1 above me - and you are too heavy so get off of me. Perhaps I escaped today.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Toldyaso - next prediction: -4% more negative for rest of june 2012

100% out of the market, ouch...

My fat arse is now holding down Birch...

But, don't worry, I'll lighten things up a bit...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Toldyaso - next prediction: -4% more negative for rest of june 2012

I believe we just finished the best June since 1999 - that may indicate a glorious July is baking. New leadership remains apparent and the economy will release ample power with jobs and profits. It's high time to ride the rails.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Toldyaso - next prediction: -4% more negative for rest of june 2012

I believe we just finished the best June since 1999 - that may indicate a glorious July is baking. New leadership remains apparent and the economy will release ample power with jobs and profits. It's high time to ride the rails.

Birch are you talking overall or a specific fund? June of 2000 was great for the S fund, 12.01%. The I fund was 3.95% and C fund was 2.44%. But the C fund was better in 1999 at 5.54%. Of course it was in 2000 that the S & I fund started up in the TSP.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Toldyaso - next prediction: -4% more negative for rest of june 2012

Well,

Birch caught 100% of the Friday boom.
I caught 30% of the boom
Amoeba got 0%

I really don't know why it boomed on Friday, and I cannot trust it. But, because I don't know why - and because it did boom - than I have to ask: Why time the market with 100% of your allocation? It is obvious we are not looking at a crash. So, why time with everything?

Just wondering...

 

[burrocrat]

Re: Toldyaso - next prediction: -4% more negative for rest of june 2012

So, why time with everything?

Umm, to win a coffee cup? (They look like really nice coffee cups).

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Toldyaso - next prediction: -4% more negative for rest of june 2012

Staying all in at my age makes the heart pump stronger.

 

[ILoveTDs]

Re: Toldyaso - next prediction: -4% more negative for rest of june 2012

Why time the market with 100% of your allocation? It is obvious we are not looking at a crash. So, why time with everything?

Just wondering...

Why go 100%, because your system or gut or instinct tell you to go. If it doesn't tell you to go stay 100% out.

Or you could buy and hold or go L Fund. But if your playing to win, your playing 100%. Side note, don't play to win if your punching out soon.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Toldyaso - next prediction: -4% more negative for rest of june 2012

Now at #323 with +6.11% - working my way back to you babe.

http://pragcap.com/wall-street-analysts-excessively-bearish

 

[amoeba]

Re: Toldyaso - next prediction: -4% more negative for rest of june 2012

Now at #323 with +6.11% - working my way back to you babe.

http://pragcap.com/wall-street-analysts-excessively-bearish

So let me get this straight - market goes up bcz why? Answer: nobody knows - but it did; all stars are aligned for a second correction on this one; the auto sales were merely in-line, TM's was a fluke due to comparison with tsunami interrupted sales last year, the European issues are NOT solved - although the market reaction seems to suggest people think they area, and the real truth comes friday - on the jobs report.

There's a possibility that someone thinks they know something about the report - but if it's anywhere near concensus, and that concensus is horrible (~70,000) - the market will tank. Let's say it comes in 140,000, is that good? No. That's lame too. What if it comes in ~30,000?, and last month is revised down from its dismal showing?

Truth in the pudding is what the market indices actually do. It's perception-based - even if that is totally wrong perception - it is what it is. My prediction was way, way off, for June. Hardly could have been more off.....

Friday? I say in line (~65,000 jobs) and market drops a mere 1.5%; next monday when the group returns from vacation? Down another 3%.....whether that happens, and if it is a buying opportunity (or selling opportunity- if it doesn't happen) remains to be seen.

 

[amoeba]

pitch black darkness - can see nothing ahead

sideway drifting of markets on low volume, this is a tough one, market is barely reacting to news, and there's not much good out there.

Low participation, vacations, just not alot of conviction......hard to put money anywhere.........

 

[Bquat]

Re: pitch black darkness - can see nothing ahead

sideway drifting of markets on low volume, this is a tough one, market is barely reacting to news, and there's not much good out there.

Low participation, vacations, just not alot of conviction......hard to put money anywhere.........

I have an empty pocket. You can put it there.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: pitch black darkness - can see nothing ahead

The SPX is close to going over 1375 - that'll make you happy I'm sure.

 

[Boghie]

Re: pitch black darkness - can see nothing ahead

BT et al.,

Amoeba is actually sharing in the gains this time.
He has some assets invested in the equities funds.

But remember, Amoeba, if the equities funds dump 10% over the next 20 minutes you will lose 3.5%. Oh, the humanity:nuts:

 

[MaStA]

Re: pitch black darkness - can see nothing ahead

BT et al.,

Amoeba is actually sharing in the gains this time.
He has some assets invested in the equities funds.

But remember, Amoeba, if the equities funds dump 10% over the next 20 minutes you will lose 3.5%. Oh, the humanity:nuts:

According to the Autotracker he has 65% in the F fund and 35% in the S fund....seems counter productive since they usually go in opposite directions as they are today.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: pitch black darkness - can see nothing ahead

It has taken several years to get him to venture more than 3% in any fund - he deserves my admiration.

 

[Boghie]

Re: pitch black darkness - can see nothing ahead

According to the Autotracker he has 65% in the F fund and 35% in the S fund....seems counter productive since they usually go in opposite directions as they are today.

MaStA,

If Amoeba is a very conservative investor than he is on track for a 4% average return with an 8% risk factor. Personally, I would mix the allocation better to bring the risk down, but 'risk' in this sense is really just a variant of variance - yuk, yuk... All it means is that one can expect a normal return in this allocation of between -4% through +12%. If Amoeba sees a +12% this year he will wipe out all his market timing losses for the past few years!!!

As I said, I would jigger the allocation so it isn't a barbell, but who knows. At least he is giving himself a chance for gains...

Also, you are correct. Those two funds should be divergent. But, the bond fund has a much smaller risk variance than the mid/small cap fund. For example, if the market holds today at the current prices, Amoeba will gain 0.37%.

All he/she really has to watch for is that the bond fund is very bubbly. I would buy into the C Fund to reduce some risk, but...

 

[Boghie]

Re: pitch black darkness - can see nothing ahead

Oh my...

Amoeba just bailed from equities. A complete 2008 era failure dumped 8% in a day. He would have lost less than 2.8% in a complete collapse. Now he will gain nothing if the market starts inching upwards.

At least he is above the 'G Fund' and might be ahead of inflation.

This in a market that is +10%.

Yowser.

 

[amoeba]

Market is supposed to be looking farther ahead than it is.....

Like Q4?:

Not to say Q2 results are showing anything worth buying into; but here's the deal; I thought others would buy, so I bought in advance of them....a little....and now, end of month - I am willing to sit for 2 biz days or a few more to let the dust settle.

Upside from here is limited - possibly 1,420 in the SPY; Downside - and as I've said before to come later this year - is MUCH lower - a drop below 1,250 - and that's being optimistic.

Economics will continue to disappoint this calender year....when (not if) there is a reality check by the market traders - - - remains to be seen.