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Re: Market is supposed to be looking farther ahead than it is.....

amoeba said:
Like Q4?:

Not to say Q2 results are showing anything worth buying into; but here's the deal; I thought others would buy, so I bought in advance of them....a little....and now, end of month - I am willing to sit for 2 biz days or a few more to let the dust settle.

Upside from here is limited - possibly 1,420 in the SPY; Downside - and as I've said before to come later this year - is MUCH lower - a drop below 1,250 - and that's being optimistic.

Economics will continue to disappoint this calender year....when (not if) there is a reality check by the market traders - - - remains to be seen.
Click to expand...

That is what I thought in Jan/Feb, but it never happened... what says we won't continue climbing up like the beginning of the year?
 
Re: Market is supposed to be looking farther ahead than it is.....

amoeba said:
Like Q4?:

Not to say Q2 results are showing anything worth buying into; but here's the deal; I thought others would buy, so I bought in advance of them....a little....and now, end of month - I am willing to sit for 2 biz days or a few more to let the dust settle.

Upside from here is limited - possibly 1,420 in the SPY; Downside - and as I've said before to come later this year - is MUCH lower - a drop below 1,250 - and that's being optimistic.

Economics will continue to disappoint this calender year....when (not if) there is a reality check by the market traders - - - remains to be seen.
Click to expand...

Wow,

A 9% drop - or worse. And, only if you do not get out after 5%. And, only if you are 100% in the "C Fund". It would probably be worse in the "S Fund". And, who knows about the "I Fund". If you hold 60% in equities it would take about a 15% drop to equal the 9%. Actually probably a few points more if you hold the bond fund.

Unless we are talking about 2008 than we will all have time to move to funds that are not being hammered.

My 'G Fund' holdings are sitting pretty looking for just such an opportunity. But, I'm neither taking all my chips off the table or going all in. Does this market really feel like either a crash or a scene of irrational exuberance? Why treat it as such.
 
Re: Market is supposed to be looking farther ahead than it is.....

Boghie said:
Wow,

A 9% drop - or worse. And, only if you do not get out after 5%. And, only if you are 100% in the "C Fund". It would probably be worse in the "S Fund". And, who knows about the "I Fund". If you hold 60% in equities it would take about a 15% drop to equal the 9%. Actually probably a few points more if you hold the bond fund.

Unless we are talking about 2008 than we will all have time to move to funds that are not being hammered.

My 'G Fund' holdings are sitting pretty looking for just such an opportunity. But, I'm neither taking all my chips off the table or going all in. Does this market really feel like either a crash or a scene of irrational exuberance? Why treat it as such.
Click to expand...

9% is not a crash. The long term average for corrections (10% drop and recovery) is about two per year. 9% would be normal fluctuation. 1,250 is coming this year....1,500 is(probably) not.
 
aww come on...give me just a little credit...will you?

Boghie said:
MaStA,

If Amoeba is a very conservative investor than he is on track for a 4% average return with an 8% risk factor. Personally, I would mix the allocation better to bring the risk down, but 'risk' in this sense is really just a variant of variance - yuk, yuk... All it means is that one can expect a normal return in this allocation of between -4% through +12%. If Amoeba sees a +12% this year he will wipe out all his market timing losses for the past few years!!!

As I said, I would jigger the allocation so it isn't a barbell, but who knows. At least he is giving himself a chance for gains...

Also, you are correct. Those two funds should be divergent. But, the bond fund has a much smaller risk variance than the mid/small cap fund. For example, if the market holds today at the current prices, Amoeba will gain 0.37%.

All he/she really has to watch for is that the bond fund is very bubbly. I would buy into the C Fund to reduce some risk, but...
Click to expand...

Aww, come-on:

I made 1% in two days, hedging S with F fund, and you say C-fund "reduce(s)....risk"? If the bond fund is bubbly - what do you think C-fund is.....with earnings guidance down....? They are both bubbles. This is a challenging time.....I can live in G-fund for a few more days if necessary without feeling bad about it.
 
Re: aww come on...give me just a little credit...will you?

amoeba said:
Aww, come-on:

I made 1% in two days, hedging S with F fund, and you say C-fund "reduce(s)....risk"? If the bond fund is bubbly - what do you think C-fund is.....with earnings guidance down....? They are both bubbles. This is a challenging time.....I can live in G-fund for a few more days if necessary without feeling bad about it.
Click to expand...

Amoeba,

It might seem amazing, but when you are 100% out of the market, and the market booms, you are 100% out of the money. And, see the recent dump (moderate, for sure) in the 'F Fund' as folks realize that quantitative easing (and the European equivalent) is just a pipe dream. That means that bonds will revert to the mean - but it does not guarantee bonds will revert to the mean this week or this month.

Why not set a normal market allocation and then play on the margins - say market time with 10% - 20% moves. That way you can catch days like this even if you believe we are in a period of impending doom. A market of doom will give you time to moderate market losses - at least if you are not 100% in the S or something...
 
I'll tell you what the pipe dream is.....equities being positive for this year.

Boghie said:
Amoeba,

It might seem amazing, but when you are 100% out of the market, and the market booms, you are 100% out of the money. And, see the recent dump (moderate, for sure) in the 'F Fund' as folks realize that quantitative easing (and the European equivalent) is just a pipe dream. That means that bonds will revert to the mean - but it does not guarantee bonds will revert to the mean this week or this month.

Why not set a normal market allocation and then play on the margins - say market time with 10% - 20% moves. That way you can catch days like this even if you believe we are in a period of impending doom. A market of doom will give you time to moderate market losses - at least if you are not 100% in the S or something...
Click to expand...

Thanks for the tip....consistent with my disagreement with it (expectation of quantitative easing is buoying STOCKS more than BONDS)....I went 50% in F fund.....shall we go for a 10th straight down monday?
 
Re: I'll tell you what the pipe dream is.....equities being positive for this year.

I'll take the other side of that bet. Monday could possibly rocket up another 250 Dow points.
 
Re: I'll tell you what the pipe dream is.....equities being positive for this year.

Equities have to fall by 10%+ to zero out. I'll take that!!!

Anyway, I don't have to be all in to reach my goal of average return. Actually, I could go Full G and make my retirement goal for the year. Honestly, I could drop some points and do fine. So, everything is now a plus.
 
No "Dow" on TSP

Birchtree said:
I'll take the other side of that bet. Monday could possibly rocket up another 250 Dow points.
Click to expand...


We don't have "Dow" as an option in the TSP; but I guess we all win today, fractionally. Tomorrow your beloved I fund starts to get toasted, again.
 
Re: No "Dow" on TSP

I'll take raspberry jam on my toast if you please - be sure it has been strained through a nylon stocking first to remove pits. The bears are covering.
 
Re: Market is supposed to be looking farther ahead than it is.....

burrocrat:

That's pretty god damned funny; and I didn't even read the article - just the headline. har har har.

Lordy - wutta lame call I made on the F-fund - oh well - put my money on my words - and paid accordingly......hanging in there, for now........

For those who are humored by my bad market sense, here's another prediction..........equities to tank next week by 4% or more.

See ya at 1,350 and I'm not buying in at those levels either......too high.

Out.
 
Re: Market is supposed to be looking farther ahead than it is.....

amoeba said:
burrocrat:

Lordy - wutta lame call I made on the F-fund - oh well - put my money on my words - and paid accordingly......hanging in there, for now........

For those who are humored by my bad market sense, here's another prediction..........equities to tank next week by 4% or more.

See ya at 1,350 and I'm not buying in at those levels either......too high.

Out.
Click to expand...
getting a taste today. F hasn't been too bad.
 
Re: Market is supposed to be looking farther ahead than it is.....

Charles Nenner expects stocks lower next 12 months - just thought you'd like to know.
 
Mystification continues.....

My mystification continues:

Other than no-where else to put money, there isn't much to support these market levels, yet here we are - 2+ months since my last post and market has - until recently - gone the other way (to 1,460 instead of south of 1,350).

EFA has outperformed SPY, on a mix of potential issues (currency, cliff, election, earnings, european speculation), and I have no clue where this will end up. AAPL has flopped around with its imperfect I5 performance, NFLX is all over the map, as POTUS wins speaking time war in the debates.

Shoulder for the SPY should be right around 1,400, for those in the mood to take a chance, and at the right time of the month for us TSP'ers with IFTs left. Not sure if I will yet. Last 2 fridays down, this one may bounce on domestic sentiment and light volume. OTOH, significant leg down under 1,400 could deadcat before breaking down farther. Even if earnings disappoint, there's still not much of a place to put money to work that will beat inflation.
 
Re: Mystification continues.....

I'm glad to see you have gotten in deeper - now you have the opportunity to make some money. Even if you have to eat a little pain you'll be rewarded.
 
Re: Mystification continues.....

Birchtree said:
I'm glad to see you have gotten in deeper - now you have the opportunity to make some money. Even if you have to eat a little pain you'll be rewarded.
Click to expand...

If you've been watching the tracker closely, you'll see I missed a golden opportunity to lose 4% when I cancelled my IFT 2 wks ago to go into equities at a SPY of 1,450 or so.

Hoping for a right shoulder on this one; a wider Romney lead (instead of a narrowing one) would help. C ya.
 
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