amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Hope cancelled

If you've been watching the tracker closely, you'll see I missed a golden opportunity to lose 4% when I cancelled my IFT 2 wks ago to go into equities at a SPY of 1,450 or so.

Hoping for a right shoulder on this one; a wider Romney lead (instead of a narrowing one) would help. C ya.

Hoping is one thing. Of course, that didn't happen, but I had already went in ~45% at ~1,410 or so and here I sit negatory for the quarter after being up 1% 2 days ago. I'm thinking somewhere around 10% off the peak of 1,460, not more than 1,320, would be the next stopping point. I expect the 200 EMA to be cut through like soft butter tomorrow, and then some next monday. Looks like patience with debt, unemployment, has finally run out and this slide will continue until there are more permanent plans (not can kicks).

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Hope cancelled

I'm actually glad to see you are still active with the program - and you are getting better as you age. 2013 could really be a robust year to be long.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Hope cancelled

Whoa, that's a nice move into S fund at 85% - keep up the good investing and don't worry about the pain.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Hope cancelled

BT: It was a shot in the dark; I thought I was exiting positive at the noon deadline but the last 30 minutes was not to be. Anyway, all the 200 MA's (including S) are now broken with lower lows...volume did drop to normal, but with a decline of another 1/2%.....if that's optimism I wonder what will happen when yo bama and friends raise the cap gains of the big earners from 15 to 39.6% (i.e., same as earned income). And us serfs get clobbered with other expiring tax cuts.

Answer: rich will sell to avoid taxes + poor will have less to spend = less consumption, more unemployment, and every man for himself.


what did I say a week or so ago? "CU at 1,370"? Let's make that 1,320 - sometime post turkey day. The high for the month (1,428) has already been put in.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Hope cancelled

BT: It was a shot in the dark; I thought I was exiting positive at the noon deadline but the last 30 minutes was not to be. Anyway, all the 200 MA's (including S) are now broken with lower lows...volume did drop to normal, but with a decline of another 1/2%.....if that's optimism I wonder what will happen when yo bama and friends raise the cap gains of the big earners from 15 to 39.6% (i.e., same as earned income). And us serfs get clobbered with other expiring tax cuts.

Answer: rich will sell to avoid taxes + poor will have less to spend = less consumption, more unemployment, and every man for himself.


what did I say a week or so ago? "CU at 1,370"? Let's make that 1,320 - sometime post turkey day. The high for the month (1,428) has already been put in.

Got about 54% sittin' in G/F awaitin' for that day!!!

But, if the market starts booming I'm in for 46%

 

[amoeba]

Reasons why I think the market has more tanking ahead

1. VIX staying low; signifies limited shorting/cost of shorts; overoptimistic (hopers rule)

2. Hopers won the election; hope and a nickel won't get you a ham sandwich, it might get you a debt downgrade

3. Fiscal cliff solution - will involve LARGE cap gains tax increases; which will be sold into before they take effect

4. Greece/Spain - can kicking

5. Domestic issues won't go away

6. Market is partly buoyed by discretionary items, toys (AAPL), misperceived as staples. Sales will soften up on these.


Gee those charts didn't look that bad at 12 noon. Don't be a sucker like me and wait for a bounce that ain't coming.

 

[JTH]

Re: Market is supposed to be looking farther ahead than it is.....

Climb the wall of worry. The. Stock market is nimble, while the economy is slow and lethargic, it is rare when the two are in sync.

 

[amoeba]

rare syncopation is now....easy to tell where this market is going next.....

Climb the wall of worry. The. Stock market is nimble, while the economy is slow and lethargic, it is rare when the two are in sync.

And that synchronicity is right now (slowing, lethargic economy AND failing stock market); while last week - I thought a bounce of some kind was in order; I'm wrong - and nobody is going to be buying anything, anytime soon.

It's easy to see where this market is going next....down....and without mercy. I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't a single significant up day (>1%) in the next ten.

Selling volume picked up, again, towards the close. Very disappointing, overall, slightly less pain for me and the 8% I have left in equities.

 

[amoeba]

Horsecrap comments from house leaders produces bounces = sell

So the meeting "was productive", no details whatsoever, and the market bounces 10 minutes later?

Baloney.


Selling opportunity. Anybody who believes that horsecrap after rejection of Simpson-Bowles, same congress, is a sucker.

Anyway, I'm glad they made their comments before the IFT deadline, so nobody could figure out that it was BS over the weekend. HAHA!!!

 

[Boghie]

Re: Horsecrap comments from house leaders produces bounces = sell

Amoeba,

You are managing your long term account using day to day emotional and political reasoning. I almost moved more to safety but found little value. If your can't guarantee a wise prediction on the turn around you should have a reasonable amount in the equities funds. That way you can participate in the large gains at an inflection point. Migrating even more of my assets to the Dead Pool where the Lilly Padders are swimming in will limit me to watching early growth and not participating in any of it. Any reduction in equities would change my potential for losses on the edges.

In fact, I have to be thinking of increasing my equities position.

Since this doesn't feel like 2008 I will not trade like its 2008. It will soon be time to buy with all that blood in the streets...

 

[amoeba]

I'm not the only one who doesn't buy the rhetoric.

I don't know Amoeba ...the one thing you CAN count on congress to do, is kick the can down the road.
Both sides have strong incentive to do that, and enjoy the holiday week coming up.
House of Reps has especially strong incentive to put Fiscal Cliff on hold because they have much more important national issues to deal with, like continuing to try to manufacture, piece together a Benghazi conspiracy of something or another. or invesitigate Petraeus's bimbo's (lol).
Anyway,, I was out, but jumped back in today because this could push us back upward for the next few days, barring any unexpected news.
But it will get ugly later in Dec when they DON'T come to an agreement and you definately want to lock in any gains and run before that.

Booghie makes a very good point about short term emotions affecting trading decisions on a longer time scale.
I would also say that you don't want long term emotions affecting a trade decision on a shorter time scale.
I'm very confident (as most CNBC experts are) that there are going to be prolonged ugly battles by the end of the year on debt ceiling/taxes etc.
But I do know that Congress hates working thru a Thanksgiving Holiday, and wants to show people that they can agree on something. Thus both sides have extra incentive to kick the can down the road.
With the market being in oversold territory and us entering what is typically a very good, low volume period statistically (short Thanksgiving holiday period) this brief agreement will likely be reached either today, over the weekend or early next week. Either way, there is a better chance for some short term gains instead of more downside. So I moved back in, not expecting to stay in more than a few days, and will wait for a better entry point in Dec...or maybe stay out and park it in the F. We'll see.

Whats that famous line in the 1987 movie Wall St?
"Gordon, you once told me don't get emotional about stock...so don't"

FWM:

I'm not sure that you, and others, understand the lack of "kickability" of this can. It is a deal or sequester. No other choices. It is a republican Congress, they will have no problem coming up with something without working on holidays; the issue is that this President won't sign it. There isn't any way to raise the debt ceiling under current circumstances without severe consequences; namely, downgrade, and rising interest rates on that debt, which will add to it. There's some blather about "temporary" solutions and "patches"; but nobody knows what it means, and how it could possibly avoid those consequences. I don't buy it, and, judging from the market's mild reaction today - I'm not the only one.

I do think you are kidding about those "more important" national issues (bimbo, benghazi) or that politics has anything to do with manufacturing data (which we noticed came in light this week).

I just hope that blip today holds to the close, so I can be cashed out for the disappointment to come.

 

[amoeba]

Another big volume friday becomes ostrich heaven

So:

Would you look at that? Lookin up at 1,400? S-fund belched up every gain since 1/26/12. Dunno about you.......but looks like alot of sideways action.

The people have spoken....we shall now reap what we sowed....meaning, another 5-10% less in our equity TSP shares in the next 3-6 months (~1,260-1,320 in the SPY). That long enough term for you? If not, give me your prediction. Wait till those first shopping sales come in too.......following a stock market correction.

Ostrich heads in the sand to soon suffocate or come up to take air.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Another big volume friday becomes ostrich heaven

Amoeba,

Not certain, but politically and fiscally we might be similar...

However, picking 2012/01/26 as a comparison date is rather specious. And, odd. The S Fund is up almost 8% YtoD - a common yardstick. And, most alert folks would not just watch their holdings dive. However, to believe that one could absolutely predict the start date of a 'recovery' (I airquote recovery because we are not even in correction yet) is as specious as using a hand picked date as a benchmark. That is why an allocation works better than an all-in all-out concept - at least in my humble opinion. Your allocation will catch 0 Kelvin out of a recovering market. Mine will catch a nice piece and will give me time to migrate more into the market.

I cannot predict the actions of Congress, our Black Swan President, or the Eurotrash leadership. I do know businesses do not like losses and will do their best to grow and compete. Those two forces will pull and push on one another - but will not cause a 2008 style crash till the gubmints around the world cannot sell their crappy bonds. Then who do you think comes out smelling like roses. Gubmint bonds or corporate equities (after a burp and a belch, eh).

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Another big volume friday becomes ostrich heaven

Remember, buy and hold is your best friend in a long term volatile bull market.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Another big volume friday becomes ostrich heaven

Remember, buy and hold is your best friend in a long term volatile bull market.

Yeah, BT, that is why I didn't make a move today. My equity holdings were not beat up enough for me to re-balance into them in any meaningful way. We were only talking a point off. Looks like that was even shaved a bit today as well. I want to get out of my conservative allocation soon.

 

[amoeba]

One birthday wish, a few comments on the boob toob, and the dip is over

Guess again:

Obama thinks wishing happy birthday to a republican will get him the Bill he wants? Really? Don't bet on it. There's always a slim chance that POTUS pulls a Romney, and sign a bill that sticks it hard to the middle class (i.e., buzz cut entitlements) while giving a free lunch to the rich; but he keeps saying he will do/did this and that, he's a man of his word and so forth. He doesn't matter. The Senate majority doesn't matter. The House does, and that is that. So either change his mind, or get ready for more of the same.

 

[ILoveTDs]

Re: One birthday wish, a few comments on the boob toob, and the dip is over

So either change his mind, or get ready for more of the same.

I'm ready for more of the same, another +8% year please

 

[amoeba]

obvious typo

I'm ready for more of the same, another +8% year please

obvious typo (make that -8%); honestly who knows this week; I see nothing but darkness in the intermediate term (3-6 months).

 

[Birchtree]

Re: obvious typo

It's always darkest before the dawn. It was dark out there - real dark. And yet, we should have all bought more. If you believe that earnings are sustainable, stocks and TSP certainly do not look expensive yet.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: obvious typo

Not to wheedle the cluckers but they are missing the corn - I look for a 300 point day at any moment. It can come out of the blue and clean out the coop.