Handballer
Active member
Re: obvious typo
We got 2 thirds of it today. I hope that moment is the next two days.
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amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
give to the rich now, take from the old later (late february)
I threw 15% in on 12/31, which turned out to hold me above water after doubling up on both stocks and bonds (before the FOMC minutes, signaling the possible end of fed bond-buying EOY 2013).
I'm hanging in there......shoved down to about the 600's in the rankings already.
Met my target for 2012 (to beat the G fund). Only took 35 IFT's.
My target for 2013 is to double the G fund. I'll try to hold myself to under 50 IFT's, if possible.
FWM made the correct call on the FC; albeit a real gong show at the end. I would not have signed it - not enough taxes, and more spending (instead of less). I suppose if that 20% Cap gains tax holds past February, stocks should gain. What a gift to the millionaires.....that is going to be a hard one to take back.....the rest is coming from entitlement cuts to old people, I suppose. So is Obama now a republicrat or what?
I guess I am in the market, with buying on any dips until at least mid-Feb......then it starts again.
I threw 15% in on 12/31, which turned out to hold me above water after doubling up on both stocks and bonds (before the FOMC minutes, signaling the possible end of fed bond-buying EOY 2013).
I'm hanging in there......shoved down to about the 600's in the rankings already.
Met my target for 2012 (to beat the G fund). Only took 35 IFT's.
My target for 2013 is to double the G fund. I'll try to hold myself to under 50 IFT's, if possible.
FWM made the correct call on the FC; albeit a real gong show at the end. I would not have signed it - not enough taxes, and more spending (instead of less). I suppose if that 20% Cap gains tax holds past February, stocks should gain. What a gift to the millionaires.....that is going to be a hard one to take back.....the rest is coming from entitlement cuts to old people, I suppose. So is Obama now a republicrat or what?
I guess I am in the market, with buying on any dips until at least mid-Feb......then it starts again.
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: give to the rich now, take from the old later (late february)
Amoeba,
I think you think retirement investing is rigged and gamey... If it is rigged and the rich constantly make their illicit Romney Style Gangsta Gains by investing in equities why don't you hold equities like the gangstas? I have used Quicken since 2004. There has been one negative year since 2004. I know there was a lousy few years from early 2001 through early 2003, but there were huge boom years for the previous five years.
I like your current allocation for a very, very conservative allocation. You will catch 35% of market gains (and increasing till you re-balance) rather than your normal 0%. Trying to market time with 100% moves has resulted in you looking up and hoping for 2X 'G Fund' returns. You miss almost all of the gains that normal markets offer you. I mean, I was in a full Turtle allocation with 30% in equities figuring that I would catch a little and reduce risk a lot. Your current allocation will normally return between -1% through +9% annually with an average of 4%. Anywhere in that range is basically equally likely.
Why not play the more major long term trends rather than messing with daily or weekly trends? Give your equities a chance to give you normal gains rather than watching them show up in other peoples accounts. Hoping for 3% returns is not a good place to be unless you are nearing retirement. Ask this questions - (1) are equities 'frothy', then migrate out; (2) are equities 'panicy', then migrate in. Not kinda frothy like this week, but frothy like 2006 and 2007. Not kinda panicy like last week, but panicy like 2008 and 2009. Otherwise, maybe have core equity holdings and market time with 20% or 30%.
Amoeba,
I think you think retirement investing is rigged and gamey... If it is rigged and the rich constantly make their illicit Romney Style Gangsta Gains by investing in equities why don't you hold equities like the gangstas? I have used Quicken since 2004. There has been one negative year since 2004. I know there was a lousy few years from early 2001 through early 2003, but there were huge boom years for the previous five years.
I like your current allocation for a very, very conservative allocation. You will catch 35% of market gains (and increasing till you re-balance) rather than your normal 0%. Trying to market time with 100% moves has resulted in you looking up and hoping for 2X 'G Fund' returns. You miss almost all of the gains that normal markets offer you. I mean, I was in a full Turtle allocation with 30% in equities figuring that I would catch a little and reduce risk a lot. Your current allocation will normally return between -1% through +9% annually with an average of 4%. Anywhere in that range is basically equally likely.
Why not play the more major long term trends rather than messing with daily or weekly trends? Give your equities a chance to give you normal gains rather than watching them show up in other peoples accounts. Hoping for 3% returns is not a good place to be unless you are nearing retirement. Ask this questions - (1) are equities 'frothy', then migrate out; (2) are equities 'panicy', then migrate in. Not kinda frothy like this week, but frothy like 2006 and 2007. Not kinda panicy like last week, but panicy like 2008 and 2009. Otherwise, maybe have core equity holdings and market time with 20% or 30%.
Go plot the S-fund or Russell 2000 if you want to see frothy....
2006-2007? That was the bigs; what about right now? (If anyone wants to see frothy, try the Russell 2000, now at an all time high).
There is no fiscal cliff deal - just a short can kick. Nevertheless, I'm expecting some near term buildup on lower volume. We'll see.
2006-2007? That was the bigs; what about right now? (If anyone wants to see frothy, try the Russell 2000, now at an all time high).
There is no fiscal cliff deal - just a short can kick. Nevertheless, I'm expecting some near term buildup on lower volume. We'll see.
sniper
Active member
Re: give to the rich now, take from the old later (late february)
I'm 100% sure it is rigged, wall street is like any sleazy vegas casino, it's designed so the house wins, unless you know how to play the game.
I'm 100% sure it is rigged, wall street is like any sleazy vegas casino, it's designed so the house wins, unless you know how to play the game.
clester
Well-known member
Re: give to the rich now, take from the old later (late february)
I agree. But it's the only game in town.
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: Go plot the S-fund or Russell 2000 if you want to see frothy....
Amoeba, I also think the market might be ready for a politically induced enema. But, that is not the same as saying it is frothy.
I think gubmint treasury bonds are frothy. I still cannot figure out why I own any of them ('F Fund'), but the science tells me to:nuts:. I have reduced that part of my allocation to compensate for my amazing market timing strategy though.
Another way of thinking about the Russell 2000 (basically our 'S Fund') is that it has fully recovered from five years ago and is now making headway. It is something like 15% over its 2007 highs. The 'C Fund' is basically even, just now making headway. The 'I Fund' is still catching up. So, we have lost five potential years of growth from an unknown overbought market. My guess is that we are now in a real Zen Buddha Balance. If we could just get our gubmint spending in order we could move on from here.
Amoeba, I also think the market might be ready for a politically induced enema. But, that is not the same as saying it is frothy.
I think gubmint treasury bonds are frothy. I still cannot figure out why I own any of them ('F Fund'), but the science tells me to:nuts:. I have reduced that part of my allocation to compensate for my amazing market timing strategy though.
Another way of thinking about the Russell 2000 (basically our 'S Fund') is that it has fully recovered from five years ago and is now making headway. It is something like 15% over its 2007 highs. The 'C Fund' is basically even, just now making headway. The 'I Fund' is still catching up. So, we have lost five potential years of growth from an unknown overbought market. My guess is that we are now in a real Zen Buddha Balance. If we could just get our gubmint spending in order we could move on from here.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Go plot the S-fund or Russell 2000 if you want to see frothy....
We've been having a bull market streak when many people don't even realize we're in a bull market. Just listen carefully and you'll hear the hiss of air coming out of the bond market - not the sound of bull tinky landing on a flat rock. We are in the early stages of a continued mega trend secular bull that will last for several more years. You just have to go with the flow. The venturi effect will eventually be in full force to cover many market sectors.
We've been having a bull market streak when many people don't even realize we're in a bull market. Just listen carefully and you'll hear the hiss of air coming out of the bond market - not the sound of bull tinky landing on a flat rock. We are in the early stages of a continued mega trend secular bull that will last for several more years. You just have to go with the flow. The venturi effect will eventually be in full force to cover many market sectors.
JimmyJoe
Member
Re: Go plot the S-fund or Russell 2000 if you want to see frothy....
Thanks for another reminder as to why I need to stay in.
S is 250% above its five year lows, and some still call it a buy.
And yet another way of thinking of the Russell is that it is 250% above the 2009. We have gained five years of frothy growth due to government overspending.....which is about to end. Well, probably...OK, well....maybe something else. Wait a minute.......we can't spend more....oh yeah....maybe we can......but that's right....there's nowhere else to put money.....bcz bond-buying is ending....then again, those FOMC minutes REALLY didn't commit, did they? See how easy it is to time this market. Not so much, is it?.
Holy Hell overbought dude.......of course......I am letting 10% ride anyway bcz others think differently.
And yet another way of thinking of the Russell is that it is 250% above the 2009. We have gained five years of frothy growth due to government overspending.....which is about to end. Well, probably...OK, well....maybe something else. Wait a minute.......we can't spend more....oh yeah....maybe we can......but that's right....there's nowhere else to put money.....bcz bond-buying is ending....then again, those FOMC minutes REALLY didn't commit, did they? See how easy it is to time this market. Not so much, is it?.
Holy Hell overbought dude.......of course......I am letting 10% ride anyway bcz others think differently.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Re: give to the rich now, take from the old later (late february)
Ouch.
Ouch.
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: give to the rich now, take from the old later (late february)
Amoeba,
Isn't your last IFT of the month (spent on the 8th) worth more than a 10% adjustment? Yowser. And, while concerned about the Fed pumping money - which is getting pumped into the 'F fund' - you sustain assets in the riskiest of the equity funds we have. This move will have minimal affect on the risk of your account - in fact, I would bet your original 25/40/10/10/15 was less risky than your current 0/75/0/10/15 allocation. Now all you have is dumpy little '<1%' moves toward investments.
But, you can always bail completely out to cash - or whatever it is in the 'G Fund'.
My guess is that the 'F Fund' is in a gross bubble that will pop once the Fed stops buying as much of our Federal Junk Bonds. Have you noted that the return on the 'G Fund' went up? Does that mean that the Fed is lightening up on the pedal.
Amoeba,
Isn't your last IFT of the month (spent on the 8th) worth more than a 10% adjustment? Yowser. And, while concerned about the Fed pumping money - which is getting pumped into the 'F fund' - you sustain assets in the riskiest of the equity funds we have. This move will have minimal affect on the risk of your account - in fact, I would bet your original 25/40/10/10/15 was less risky than your current 0/75/0/10/15 allocation. Now all you have is dumpy little '<1%' moves toward investments.
But, you can always bail completely out to cash - or whatever it is in the 'G Fund'.
My guess is that the 'F Fund' is in a gross bubble that will pop once the Fed stops buying as much of our Federal Junk Bonds. Have you noted that the return on the 'G Fund' went up? Does that mean that the Fed is lightening up on the pedal.
Re: give to the rich now, take from the old later (late february)
The ultimate choice is yours and yours only. Don't let anybody tell you what to do with your money. We can suggest and ask why someone moved from one fund to another. Read, read, read and learn, learn learn. Track some of the leaders and get a feel for how and why they do what they do. The "I" fund has been doing well since summer of 2012, but the "S" fund has been doing better than both the "C" and "I" funds. Good luck.
The ultimate choice is yours and yours only. Don't let anybody tell you what to do with your money. We can suggest and ask why someone moved from one fund to another. Read, read, read and learn, learn learn. Track some of the leaders and get a feel for how and why they do what they do. The "I" fund has been doing well since summer of 2012, but the "S" fund has been doing better than both the "C" and "I" funds. Good luck.
TSP-roulette
Well-known member
Re: give to the rich now, take from the old later (late february)
Or perhaps you might want to try the premium services temporarily just to see how that would work for you. I did that in the past but got out for no particular reason; as Nasa1974 indicates, read and learn, track the leaders, read their posts, read Tom's daily comments, the various blogs, check the autotracker frequently and as mentioned by NASA1974, the choice is ultimately yours. Good luck.
Or perhaps you might want to try the premium services temporarily just to see how that would work for you. I did that in the past but got out for no particular reason; as Nasa1974 indicates, read and learn, track the leaders, read their posts, read Tom's daily comments, the various blogs, check the autotracker frequently and as mentioned by NASA1974, the choice is ultimately yours. Good luck.
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