amoeba's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Who won on the fiscal cliff deal (early retirees with alot of cap gains).

"Market timing is based on 'orobabilities' that make us successful over time. Too much focus on a single trade causes the fear levels to rise. As this poccurs, market timers become hesitant and cautios, trying to avoid mistakes. The risks of choking under pressur (not making a trade) build. All market timers, at times, feel fear. But successful market timers manage their fear, while losing market timers are controlled by it." Successful market timers actually make their profits off the fears of the majority of investors. So remember, bull markets don't like company and that's the way it should be.

 

[JTH]

Re: sideways action continues

Amoeba, you are getting utterly slaughtered on the Auto Tracker this year, it breaks my heart. It reminds me of a time I got cocky with Coolhand playing it conservative, he kindly put me in my place, reminding me that we are not all on the same playing field, we each have out own expectations and retirement goals, and this is something that can't be measured within the Auto Tracker. You my friend have character, unlike others who magically disappear from the forum, you stand your ground and forge your own path, your unshakable independence cannot be measured. Thank you for being true to yourself.

 

[sniper]

Re: Does anyone know what Obama meant when he said, today.....

Boghie,

good explanation, I was just curious since I'm rather new to these boards compared to a lot of regulars so I don't know many people's histories here.

So did amoeba win a tsp talk mug in 2008?

on another note, would LMBF method be a viable strategy for someone nearing retirement? it appears to be safe and wins in down years (though did lose 11% in 2008, but that's not bad considering how many did worse)

 

[Boghie]

Re: Does anyone know what Obama meant when he said, today.....

Boghie,

good explanation, I was just curious since I'm rather new to these boards compared to a lot of regulars so I don't know many people's histories here.

So did amoeba win a tsp talk mug in 2008?

on another note, would LMBF method be a viable strategy for someone nearing retirement? it appears to be safe and wins in down years (though did lose 11% in 2008, but that's not bad considering how many did worse)

Amoeba was in the AutoTracker for half the year so I don't think he was eligible for the "Mug of Greatness for One Month Duration" or the "Mug of Amazing Greatness". I never won one either. A few around here never have to wash their mugs:laugh:.

Anything that swings 100% into a single fund accepts 100% of the risk of that investment class for the duration of the swing. So, the LMBF might mitigate a bit in a long downturn by getting you into bonds relatively quickly. But, any 100% holding in anything leaves you open to a crash in that thing. A blend will mitigate the crash more reliably, but will limit the upside as well. 2008 was so awful that F/C/S/and I all dumped into the pit together. Arms and legs, dogs and cats all plopped in the sewer. So, LMBF probably plopped you in the G for most of the year and migrated out in October like I did - just to eat a huge turd like I did.

Actually, the more I look at how it works the more I like it. Stream of Thought... Don't like the 100% thangy, but I do like the trend following. Hmmmmm... Maybe LMBF with 50% of my holdings. Could work to get a little alpha...

 

[JTH]

Re: what medicare entitlement cuts means most likely this....

You don't have to live like a refugee

 

[Birchtree]

Re: what medicare entitlement cuts means most likely this....

I used to listen to Tom Petty practice in Gainesville when his group was known as 'Mudcrutch' - so many years ago now.

 

[amoeba]

Just been away.....it's a long year yet......

My god:

All that sneering and snickering; how my thread keeps going on without me (haven't posted in 2 months here) is a mystery. Back to basics, I did go somewhat into both the bond and stock funds, due to what may be an interim low on the former and some continued momentum in the latter and no real break in what is a steep uptrend. The claims data was only mildly positive....what has been more influential was the Fed statement and chairman's testimony that QE willl go on pretty much for-ever (i.e., until unemployment "normalizes" at something like 4-5%, which could be never).

Expect home prices to spiral out of control with continued low interest rates, no new taxes, and some eventual implosion of all of it. But nobody is thinking soon; everyone is betting on Congress issuing yet another CR, another raise of debt ceiling, and another round of arguing about (but getting to no resolution) about the debt.

I picked the TSP pen and a shirt (friends don't let friends buy and hold )in 2008 for being in the top 10. I think I made ~2% that year while the average was minus 40%.

 

[JTH]

Re: Just been away.....it's a long year yet......

My god:

All that sneering and snickering; how my thread keeps going on without me (haven't posted in 2 months here) is a mystery. Back to basics, I did go somewhat into both the bond and stock funds, due to what may be an interim low on the former and some continued momentum in the latter and no real break in what is a steep uptrend. The claims data was only mildly positive....what has been more influential was the Fed statement and chairman's testimony that QE willl go on pretty much for-ever (i.e., until unemployment "normalizes" at something like 4-5%, which could be never).

Expect home prices to spiral out of control with continued low interest rates, no new taxes, and some eventual implosion of all of it. But nobody is thinking soon; everyone is betting on Congress issuing yet another CR, another raise of debt ceiling, and another round of arguing about (but getting to no resolution) about the debt.

I picked the TSP pen and a shirt (friends don't let friends buy and hold )in 2008 for being in the top 10. I think I made ~2% that year while the average was minus 40%.

No worries, this is what happens when you leave the kids alone unsupervised

Every bear has his day...

 

[amoeba]

Re: Just been away.....it's a long year yet......

holy moly:

Dare I pray to meet a goal of 1% annual return by the end of March? More than doubling the G-fund so far (my new year's goal). While that TSP talk pen is really nice, it's the t-shirt (posted in my "office" (cubicle) that generates most of the discussion. I sure would like a coffee mug to show off some day!

 

[amoeba]

Re: Who won on the fiscal cliff deal (early retirees with alot of cap gains).

Looks like the cops may come to the party to tone down the noise:

a) Fed - can't say anything better than it did before (no end to QE until unemployment "normalizes" or some such), so expect no bounce, and possible drop;
b) Congress - can't do any better than another CR, and more sequester/arguing;
c) contagion - probably will be resolved by end of month, but a what cost?

JTH-id'd gaps in AGG are being filled in the mean time. Still a chance at closing the month at a year so far return of 1%; sell in march so you don't get parched.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Who won on the fiscal cliff deal (early retirees with alot of cap gains).

The market, once it completely stabilizes above SPX of 1576, will be able to proceed into the critical summer months on a much sounder footing now and the dominant path for stock prices in the months ahead will likely be higher. It's time for a much bigger bite.

 

[amoeba]

what year is that supposed to happen?

The market, once it completely stabilizes above SPX of 1576, will be able to proceed into the critical summer months on a much sounder footing now and the dominant path for stock prices in the months ahead will likely be higher. It's time for a much bigger bite.

hmmm:

could you specify the decade that the SPX will do that? what are you considering "sounder footing now" (an economy without QE? when?). The summer isn't usually "critical"; unless, there's a major change in the housing markets, which is possible (in my opinion, out of control price inflation, again, this time due to far too low interest rates, and freelunchers who ditched their past houses at government expense - through bank bailouts - and are now bank in the market).

Those who make mistakes and aren't held accountable are bound to repeat them. And that's alot of people this time. Fed may end up having to push the brakes to the floor, but probably will be later than they should (in my opinion, right now).

 

[Birchtree]

Re: what year is that supposed to happen?

I'd predict a new all time high for the SPX above 1576 some time before April ends - hope you get some of it.

 

[amoeba]

Re: what year is that supposed to happen?

I'd predict a new all time high for the SPX above 1576 some time before April ends - hope you get some of it.

My guess is anywhere between tomorrow and the end of the decade; in any case - I think by April 30, 2013 would be a bit early in that range.

I'm gonna say probably sometime in late October, 2013, would be more realistic (as the earliest); give it some time for home starts/sales, employment, and budget, data to form some firmer direction, and signals from the fed that these data are good enough to withdraw QE stimulus.

Tomorrow I believe will continue down some more. I'm treading water right now. When you gonna make a move?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: what year is that supposed to happen?

When am I gonna make a move? Let's get cereal here - as a buy and holder I don't envision making a move in my TSP tugboat for another year or maybe two. I'm right where I want to be in large caps and will ride the volatility when it surfaces. I'm content with my position and with what the bull will provide. The bullish contrarian in me recognizes that the small investor's low level of allocation is a very bullish sign as equity allocation is still well shy of its past levels seen at market peaks - fear is still dominant in the homes of mom and pop - and that's a positive. Brave people will make a fortune buying in these days, and then we'll all wonder what the scare was about.

 

[Boghie]

Re: what year is that supposed to happen?

My guess is anywhere between tomorrow and the end of the decade; in any case - I think by April 30, 2013 would be a bit early in that range.

I'm gonna say probably sometime in late October, 2013, would be more realistic (as the earliest); give it some time for home starts/sales, employment, and budget, data to form some firmer direction, and signals from the fed that these data are good enough to withdraw QE stimulus.

Tomorrow I believe will continue down some more. I'm treading water right now. When you gonna make a move?

Tomorrow is today, Amoeba

1576 might happen this week Amoeba.
Might happen this week.

Nice Seat you got there. Right on the sidelines. I guess the Cypriots and the Kleptocrats are in the news. Everyone knows that everything revolves around the Cypriots and the Russian Kleptocrats...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: what year is that supposed to happen?

The lukewarm, steady buying that has persisted in March so far is exactly the kind of buying that typically accounts for most of the stock market's gains most of the time. Amoeba, major downside market action usually does not occur with indexes either above or supported by upward sloping 200-day moving averages.

 

[rcknfrewld]

Re: what year is that supposed to happen?

Am I missing something here....how can you make so many transfers

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Re: how can you make so many transfers?!

Am I missing something here....how can you make so many transfers

Excellent example of how to make more than 2 transfers! First 2 are obviously OK. The next 2 only make transfers to G. Which you can make as many as you want!

And this does not even include the '<1% IFTs' that are possible after the first 2, in which you can transfer small amounts from G back into the other funds. (See sticky on '<1% IFTs')

Good teaching example, Amoeba!!

 

[rcknfrewld]

Re: how can you make so many transfers?!

I sees....never looked at it that way...thanks