amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

1,576 IF everything turns to gold, otherwise, a no-brainer sell

Tomorrow is today, Amoeba

1576 might happen this week Amoeba.
Might happen this week.

Nice Seat you got there. Right on the sidelines. I guess the Cypriots and the Kleptocrats are in the news. Everyone knows that everything revolves around the Cypriots and the Russian Kleptocrats...

1,576 would happen IF - everything you said above magically turns to gold

OTHERWISE: a no brainer sell, and I'm not the only one, if the recent IFTs are any indication.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: 1,576 IF everything turns to gold, otherwise, a no-brainer sell

You'll see a Dow at 14,973 and a SPX at 1576 before April 9th - I think. That's only 13 trading days including today.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: 1,576 IF everything turns to gold, otherwise, a no-brainer sell

And Jeremy Siegel (who) sees S&P 500 hitting 1,700 by end of 2013 - don't miss the fun.

 

[Boghie]

Re: 1,576 IF everything turns to gold, otherwise, a no-brainer sell

Amoeba,

You cannot miss market gains when they are happening. However, you can soften losses as they happen.

Why are you 100% out of the market? Why not be 40% out or 50% out or 60% out? Less than a month ago you were 30% in the market. If you have something in the market you get part of the gains. Are you that certain of the image in your crystal ball? You have largely missed a 100% gain in the market from the lows four years ago. That loss is going to be an absolute killer for your retirement.

If you were 30% in equities and you took a 10% loss in one day (before you could adjust) than you would lose 3% of your asset value. Isn't that very unlikely event worth the risk of at least going positive over inflation on the year?

Oh well...

 

[amoeba]

Re: 1,576 IF everything turns to gold, otherwise, a no-brainer sell

I made nearly a half percent in that "less than a month ago 30% in" bet, and most of that wasn't on S-fund (I hit the bond fund on an updip for most of that gain). Anyway, my monthly return (0.47%) is about rank 690 out of 1100 tracker members, and that could rise.

Feeling good, approaching that magical 1% positive return barrier, tripling the G-fund. Next month should be lots of fun, eh?

 

[Boghie]

Re: 1,576 IF everything turns to gold, otherwise, a no-brainer sell

1569 COB on 2012/03/28, and by being completely out of the 'C Fund' you are missing on dividend reinvestment...

Ouch...

I am underperforming my personal goals - making 'C Fund' returns and/or finding myself in the Top Quintile - but have harvested a good chunk that of the return. Not a grand and glorious bottom quintile return. That may happen yet; some very respected people on the AT are sitting this market out, but... I can now take a 10% market correction and still be positive.

I can understand risk management. I think the market is frothy and awaiting a normal Summer Swoon. Thus, I have not had a Full On Bull Allocation at any point this year. However, sitting in the G Fund guarantees inflation rate returns - and sitting in the 'F Fund' is sitting on top of a soap bubble awaiting either Bond Investor or FED actions. Making less than a point YtoD is leaving you at risk of a normal correction driving you below inflation - thus losing purchasing power.

If you are nearing retirement than whatever you are doing might be fine, but if you are more than five years out...

All in all it might be best to gamble on a normal market year with a normal Summer Swoon. But, at the very least I would think it best to start migrating into equities in 5%+ chunks per month. If I was not nearing retirement and I was earning 2% a year in 12% markets I would realize that I was in trouble. If we have a 10% correction in June/July than you could give yourself a chance for a 5% return this year by moving 50% into C/S/I in August or September - and a better return if the correction is deeper. Miss that (if the crystal ball is cloudy or if the market doesn't correct) and you got nothing or will potentially go negative with one bad market timing move...

 

[amoeba]

Re: what year is that supposed to happen?

oooooo:

Wouldn't it be special if the "real" jobs number came in whacky? I'm sort of interested in whether markets will show support if it comes in ON forecast (~185K or so) or extend the selloff nonetheless; from the ADP, it looks like mostly service sector increases.

 

[amoeba]

Has the top been put in already?

Next 5-10 trading days should answer the subject question; if no further breakdown, then buying could come in. However, my personal prediction is that the job number comes in on or above target, BUT the market shows further and deeper selling - not immediately - it will take 2-5 trading days to sort out, and then the big trades will push the indices down ~5% off the peek, or more. Fairly stiff resistence over the last 10 sessions to downward pressures. Hard to call this one. Could break either way.

 

[Handballer]

Re: what year is that supposed to happen?

Thanks to you, I moved from all S to G50%, F50%. What a wonderful brain you have. For this, I give you a Like.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: what year is that supposed to happen?

amoeba,

good to see you putting some money to work today - actually refreshing. This market is poised for a serious break out to the upside. The Nikkei is going to show us the way forward.

 

[amoeba]

Re: what year is that supposed to happen?

amoeba,

good to see you putting some money to work today - actually refreshing. This market is poised for a serious break out to the upside. The Nikkei is going to show us the way forward.

Upward resistance has clearly broken, in the face of a really poor jobs report; suspect alcoa earnings; and breakdown of commodity prices (copper, oil); so if this is the reaction to lame news, its unclear how anything short of global economic collapse could move the indices downward.

I should be able to clear 1% for the year by COB today.....we'll see if this continues.....next psych barrier is 1,600 in the SPY, not too far away.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: what year is that supposed to happen?

Someday, I don't know when, bullish sentiment will rise to dangerously high levels - currently at 19%. And that's when contrarians will want to be pulling money off the table. Sentiment is a contrary indicator - markets do well when people are pessimistic.

 

[amoeba]

I feel like aTSP God now.....

....that I've broken 1% for the year (1.25%+ for the year COB 4/11/13). Yee HAW!!!! Looks like Birch's beloved I fund is in for another big day tomorrow.

 

[amoeba]

I am no TSP-god anymore....zero'd out for the year again!

Upward resistance has clearly broken, in the face of a really poor jobs report; suspect alcoa earnings; and breakdown of commodity prices (copper, oil); so if this is the reaction to lame news, its unclear how anything short of global economic collapse could move the indices downward.

I should be able to clear 1% for the year by COB today.....we'll see if this continues.....next psych barrier is 1,600 in the SPY, not too far away.

Wrong again.....zero'd out for the year and then some.....cutting some of my losses in the hope of a deadcat tomorrow but this does not look good right now. Crap!

 

[amoeba]

Next question: where is the bottom?

Wrong again.....zero'd out for the year and then some.....cutting some of my losses in the hope of a deadcat tomorrow but this does not look good right now. Crap!

If I'm lucky - I will remain in pository for the year; barely - and essentially out of equities; with enough F-fund to catch any further momentum in that - if it lasts.

The next question, however, is if this dip (between the 20 and 50 EMAs of the major indicies) will be like the last two - short - or will it linger, or worse, move much more deeply. 5-10% dips occur at least once a year - so will there be more pain? and where (and when) is this bottom? I can hardly venture a guess - - - I thought it would have this past monday (wrong about that). Volumes are picking up....in the downward direction right now.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Next question: where is the bottom?

If you were to ask me I'd say we were standing on the bottom today - most weakness is getting bought up at the 50 day EMA. The next decent move is going to be higher - much higher.

 

[vegasmith]

Re: Next question: where is the bottom?

And if you ask me I'd say the winter and spring gains are drying up. Now is the time to be cautious and pool your money. This summer is approaching fast and why mess with 50 day EMA buy-ins and potentially catch a falling knife. If you get out, stay out till 200 EMA's at this point.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Next question: where is the bottom?

If I'm lucky - I will remain in pository for the year; barely - and essentially out of equities; with enough F-fund to catch any further momentum in that - if it lasts.

The next question, however, is if this dip (between the 20 and 50 EMAs of the major indicies) will be like the last two - short - or will it linger, or worse, move much more deeply. 5-10% dips occur at least once a year - so will there be more pain? and where (and when) is this bottom? I can hardly venture a guess - - - I thought it would have this past monday (wrong about that). Volumes are picking up....in the downward direction right now.

Had to give yourself some of the huge gains made earlier this year. Concur that now is not the time to be fully invested, but when...

A 10% 'correction' is nothing. If I wasn't largely out I would eat it.

 

[amoeba]

crushed again

Once again, I timed a move within 3 days of a huge downward move (or continued downward move); zero-ing out my meager gains for the year. I tried to double down into one of them, losing more, before bailing; only to see the market rise.

I had almost made it to that lofty 1% gain territory for the year.

I didn't see this coming at all...fairly sizable volume too....beating up stock and bond TSP funds. I had expected light volume and a potential positive bias coming into (and after) the holiday. Wrong about all of that, so far. I listened to BB this morning, and read the Fed minutes, and don't see what may have caused today's move there.

No predictions or motives for my moves this month.....just felt like there was no where to put money without losing it to risk or inflation....and I chose risk.

I'll take some lumps for this one. I deserve it.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: crushed again

The selling today was all program trading - nothing to worry about.