bmneveu
Well-known member
Not a bad snipe for someone as conservative as yourself. And in the middle of a crazy month too. Well done!
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amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
Not a bad snipe for someone as conservative as yourself. And in the middle of a crazy month too. Well done!
feel's like a falling knife
Thanks, but its only 0.10%, which is better than my -2.17% on my last attempt - which I held way too long - even through a 0.99% gain - which I lost, and then some. The friday failure to capture any significant gain after a ~4% loss the prior two sessions, and the high volume, is worrisome. If there is a bounce monday - which I doubt - I think it will be sold off before the close.
Feels like a falling knife.
Thanks, but its only 0.10%, which is better than my -2.17% on my last attempt - which I held way too long - even through a 0.99% gain - which I lost, and then some. The friday failure to capture any significant gain after a ~4% loss the prior two sessions, and the high volume, is worrisome. If there is a bounce monday - which I doubt - I think it will be sold off before the close.
Feels like a falling knife.
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: feel's like a falling knife
Doesn't it feel more like a mid-summer night's bad dream. I mean, shouldn't it be time for the massive 5% or 10% mid-season correction? I convinced myself that we were in 2009 and would not have one. This one actually feels very short term and very shallow. Isn't a Falling Knife something greater than a 4% decline? Just asking...
Doesn't it feel more like a mid-summer night's bad dream. I mean, shouldn't it be time for the massive 5% or 10% mid-season correction? I convinced myself that we were in 2009 and would not have one. This one actually feels very short term and very shallow. Isn't a Falling Knife something greater than a 4% decline? Just asking...
Re: feel's like a falling knife
you're right on all counts.....of course, you don't know if you're in a correction until you are actually in one; it's just a feeling.....since there wasn't any significant reversal in trading volume in favor of advances.....it just doesn't feel right. If the 20 EMA crosses the 50 in the SPY, expect the 200 to be challenged (1,520); if not, expect the 50 to be recaptured (1,618).........and.........before the end of the month. Meaning I will have missed out.....but these scenarios could hardly be farther apart.
IOW, I have no idea what WTFlip is going on here. But the selling pressure friday.....when.....in the recent past it has been light volume and rebound pattern, is dramatically different. Hence, I'm out till July.
you're right on all counts.....of course, you don't know if you're in a correction until you are actually in one; it's just a feeling.....since there wasn't any significant reversal in trading volume in favor of advances.....it just doesn't feel right. If the 20 EMA crosses the 50 in the SPY, expect the 200 to be challenged (1,520); if not, expect the 50 to be recaptured (1,618).........and.........before the end of the month. Meaning I will have missed out.....but these scenarios could hardly be farther apart.
IOW, I have no idea what WTFlip is going on here. But the selling pressure friday.....when.....in the recent past it has been light volume and rebound pattern, is dramatically different. Hence, I'm out till July.
Its feels like, is, a duck (falling knife); be patient
A little bit more relaxing without any IFT's:
And having booked a smidge of profit, which I expect was the last opportunity this month anyways. Now the bad news (or good, depending on where you are positioned); we are in a correction; expect the 200 EMA's to be completely taken out, forming a right shoulder; in the neighborhood of no higher than ~760 in the S-fund - or about 5% lower than current (6/24/13, noon). Dunno if this level will be an opportunity, but this week is certainly not one.....unless you are selling to cut losses. I should be in the middle of the pack on quarterly returns (negatory 1.5%) by the end of the day. Not much to crow about.
Enjoy.
Amoeba
A little bit more relaxing without any IFT's:
And having booked a smidge of profit, which I expect was the last opportunity this month anyways. Now the bad news (or good, depending on where you are positioned); we are in a correction; expect the 200 EMA's to be completely taken out, forming a right shoulder; in the neighborhood of no higher than ~760 in the S-fund - or about 5% lower than current (6/24/13, noon). Dunno if this level will be an opportunity, but this week is certainly not one.....unless you are selling to cut losses. I should be in the middle of the pack on quarterly returns (negatory 1.5%) by the end of the day. Not much to crow about.
Enjoy.
Amoeba
Re: Its feels like, is, a duck (falling knife); be patient
In order to increase the interest in my account talk thread, I am now making predictions to a second decimal place for the C-fund:
Tomorrow will be a fractional downer, 0.47% loss.
My short attention span precludes me looking farther ahead, but one day is a start, right?
In order to increase the interest in my account talk thread, I am now making predictions to a second decimal place for the C-fund:
Tomorrow will be a fractional downer, 0.47% loss.
My short attention span precludes me looking farther ahead, but one day is a start, right?
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: Its feels like, is, a duck (falling knife); be patient
Are you retiring tomorrow:cheesy:
All out, eh. Hard to make any money in an up market being all out. Just saying...
Are you retiring tomorrow:cheesy:
All out, eh. Hard to make any money in an up market being all out. Just saying...
No fireworks expected for next 24 hours
Well, If I woulda stayed in where I started losing money (in the I-fund, last month) I would be warming benches at the hell rock bottom of the tracker. I got bit by a mid-day reversal on the day I exited; followed by a heavy volume sell, and then the last two days - including much lighter volume, today. Just everything all over the place. I don't see the market rocketing up to 1,700 before the end of June.
Oh yeah, my prediction for tomorrow - ummmmm - working on that second decimal place; I'm gonna saaaaaayyyyyyyyyy! - drum roll please..............
DOWN!!!! SPY to fall by 0.12% Somewhere around 1,599 - no fireworks tomorrow; just enough to keep suckers interested in this "rally".
Well, If I woulda stayed in where I started losing money (in the I-fund, last month) I would be warming benches at the hell rock bottom of the tracker. I got bit by a mid-day reversal on the day I exited; followed by a heavy volume sell, and then the last two days - including much lighter volume, today. Just everything all over the place. I don't see the market rocketing up to 1,700 before the end of June.
Oh yeah, my prediction for tomorrow - ummmmm - working on that second decimal place; I'm gonna saaaaaayyyyyyyyyy! - drum roll please..............
DOWN!!!! SPY to fall by 0.12% Somewhere around 1,599 - no fireworks tomorrow; just enough to keep suckers interested in this "rally".
Re: No fireworks expected for next 24 hours
I predict now a 0.13% rise in the C-fund tomorrow (4th consecutive up day); with SPY falling slightly short of the 50 EMA (~1,614) on light volume (<110 million shares).
I predict now a 0.13% rise in the C-fund tomorrow (4th consecutive up day); with SPY falling slightly short of the 50 EMA (~1,614) on light volume (<110 million shares).
JTH
Well-known member
Re: No fireworks expected for next 24 hours
I predict you will not be right...
View attachment 24298
I predict you will not be right...
View attachment 24298
better opportunity after fireworks
And you are right about me being wrong, in addition, I have not been correct in either amount, or direction, on a single day....this will end right now. I predict the market to drift upwards - approaching, but not exceeding the 20 EMA, to about 1,612 - to be specific, a 0.78% gain in the C-fund share price. I am not going in, however, because I suspect there will be a better buying opportunity the week following the holiday.
Out
And you are right about me being wrong, in addition, I have not been correct in either amount, or direction, on a single day....this will end right now. I predict the market to drift upwards - approaching, but not exceeding the 20 EMA, to about 1,612 - to be specific, a 0.78% gain in the C-fund share price. I am not going in, however, because I suspect there will be a better buying opportunity the week following the holiday.
Out
Re: better opportunity after fireworks
Fine - here's one you might care about:
The 200 EMA (~1,520) will be broken this summer; this happens on 6-8 month intervals, never more; and the period the market has been above the 200 EMA, is closing in on the most in the last five years. So down it goes. To 1,520 (1,525 at least); so you can ride it down if you wish (I'm not). It could also go up to 1,675. I don't think so but we shall see.
Fine - here's one you might care about:
The 200 EMA (~1,520) will be broken this summer; this happens on 6-8 month intervals, never more; and the period the market has been above the 200 EMA, is closing in on the most in the last five years. So down it goes. To 1,520 (1,525 at least); so you can ride it down if you wish (I'm not). It could also go up to 1,675. I don't think so but we shall see.
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: better opportunity after fireworks
I don't care about a 0.78% move.
That doesn't mean I don't care about a 5.7% move. And a 5.7% move in the S&P500 will likely cost me less than 4% - leaving me still positive YToD.
Why burn a golden IFT on market noise. A 5% move might imply a larger move, but a move of less than 1% implies nothing but sound and fury. I will have time to use an IFT in either direction, but I don't want to use it if there is no dangerous trend line. And, there is no dangerous trend line. Who really cares about a normal summer correction. It would be a nice Alpha move to miss it, but to miss a 10%+ market this year has been a definite blow.
I don't care about a 0.78% move.
That doesn't mean I don't care about a 5.7% move. And a 5.7% move in the S&P500 will likely cost me less than 4% - leaving me still positive YToD.
Why burn a golden IFT on market noise. A 5% move might imply a larger move, but a move of less than 1% implies nothing but sound and fury. I will have time to use an IFT in either direction, but I don't want to use it if there is no dangerous trend line. And, there is no dangerous trend line. Who really cares about a normal summer correction. It would be a nice Alpha move to miss it, but to miss a 10%+ market this year has been a definite blow.
rcknfrewld
Active member
Re: feel's like a falling knife
for some reason whenever I click on your account I expect to see that avatar of that crawling bug...who has that avatar...I think you should steal it...your name for whatever reason always reminds me of that...
for some reason whenever I click on your account I expect to see that avatar of that crawling bug...who has that avatar...I think you should steal it...your name for whatever reason always reminds me of that...
Positioning ahead of nonfarms friday after holiday - fireworks time
Fireworks time:
I believe that tomorrow will see some moderate volume and volatility increase; the SPY and QQQ are hovering near their 20 and 50 EMAs, or in between them, and will break; I suggest this will be slightlly negative tomorrow. I expect a SPY interday low of 1,598and close of 1,609, for a loss of about 0.19%. I think friday will be a a bigger move on low volume - around 30 points in the S&P - and I can't tell which way yet. Monday will be a follow-through (same direction) as whatever friday sees.
Fireworks time:
I believe that tomorrow will see some moderate volume and volatility increase; the SPY and QQQ are hovering near their 20 and 50 EMAs, or in between them, and will break; I suggest this will be slightlly negative tomorrow. I expect a SPY interday low of 1,598and close of 1,609, for a loss of about 0.19%. I think friday will be a a bigger move on low volume - around 30 points in the S&P - and I can't tell which way yet. Monday will be a follow-through (same direction) as whatever friday sees.
rcknfrewld
Active member
Re: Positioning ahead of nonfarms friday after holiday - fireworks time
have you seen that avatar...with the crawling bug...come on react to me
have you seen that avatar...with the crawling bug...come on react to me
Re: Positioning ahead of nonfarms friday after holiday - fireworks time
the name comes from the sprawling masses I create in office (and camping tent) - which look like an amoeba; not necessarily market trading behavior. That I do alot of....both quickly and poorly.
the name comes from the sprawling masses I create in office (and camping tent) - which look like an amoeba; not necessarily market trading behavior. That I do alot of....both quickly and poorly.
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