amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Re: signs of trouble ahead? but not much.....

My inability to properly strategize and invest continues, but for the sake of insanity, I continue with my daily prediction, confident in my efforts to build to a weekly prediction - less confident that I will be right even a quarter of the time:

Tomorrow will witness the first of several larger moves - this first one, tomorrow (7/16/13) will be an exhaustion sell on the order of a negative 0.51% decline in the C-fund; more of a decline in the S-fund. Market could bop around directionless for a few days - unless there is a psychological challenge level, say, to or just short of 1,700 in the SPY? There isn't any economic data which would justify it, but who ever said there has to be.

If this happens (a barrier challenge), and tomorrow is down sharply - then it could be a shorter-term albeit risky opportunity. Not for the faint.

 

[Boghie]

Re: signs of trouble ahead? but not much.....

0.51% one way or the other is well within a normal market day...

You have to allow that deviation from the mean if you are investing in the 'C Fund'. Now, instead of worrying about a half point here and there should't one be more worried about:

Date S&P500 Percent

29-Sep-2008 1106.39 -8.79%
30-Sep-2008 1166.36 5.42%
1-Oct-2008 1161.06 -0.45%
2-Oct-2008 1114.28 -4.03%
3-Oct-2008 1099.23 -1.35%
6-Oct-2008 1056.89 -3.85%
7-Oct-2008 996.23 -5.74%
8-Oct-2008 984.94 -1.13%
9-Oct-2008 909.92 -7.62%
10-Oct-2008 899.22 -1.18%
13-Oct-2008 1003.35 11.58%
14-Oct-2008 998.01 -0.53%
15-Oct-2008 907.84 -9.03%
16-Oct-2008 946.43 4.25%
17-Oct-2008 940.55 -0.62%
20-Oct-2008 985.4 4.77%
21-Oct-2008 955.05 -3.08%
22-Oct-2008 896.78 -6.10%
23-Oct-2008 908.11 1.26%
24-Oct-2008 876.77 -3.45%
27-Oct-2008 848.92 -3.18%
28-Oct-2008 940.51 10.79%
29-Oct-2008 930.09 -1.11%
30-Oct-2008 954.09 2.58%
31-Oct-2008 968.75 1.54%
3-Nov-2008 966.3 -0.25%
4-Nov-2008 1005.75 4.08%
5-Nov-2008 952.77 -5.27%
6-Nov-2008 904.88 -5.03%
7-Nov-2008 930.99 2.89%
10-Nov-2008 919.21 -1.27%
11-Nov-2008 898.95 -2.20%
12-Nov-2008 852.3 -5.19%
13-Nov-2008 911.29 6.92%
14-Nov-2008 873.29 -4.17%
17-Nov-2008 850.75 -2.58%
18-Nov-2008 859.12 0.98%
19-Nov-2008 806.58 -6.12%
20-Nov-2008 752.44 -6.71%
21-Nov-2008 800.03 6.32%
24-Nov-2008 851.81 6.47%
25-Nov-2008 857.39 0.66%
26-Nov-2008 887.68 3.53%
28-Nov-2008 896.24 0.96%
1-Dec-2008 816.21 -8.93%

There were some wonderful head fakes in that mess. I got caught in a few of them. We could make some money together if we could read that data (and the data that led to it). We could make some money if we could figure out a reasonable allocation that would have survived that period. I was lucky, not good. I would rather be good, not lucky...

Right now my meager collection of brain cells is tracking on covariance - but, I think that would miss the value of investments having their own waves. I have no clue, but it is there somewhere...

 

[amoeba]

BB commentary pending; pins and needles

Unbelievably light trading today, 76 million SPY shares, suggests all eyes on the fed and BB's remarks tomorrow:

No matter how much he tries to be neutral, anything but a stiff upper lip will produce a reaction, and absent that - it will be a big one. My guess is that it will be negative....not the comments themselves....but the market reaction - and it will be 1 hour after the IFT deadline, so if you wade in on the expectation of an overactive downside move, it will be a guess.

Mine for 7/17/13 is an intermediate drop in the C-fund share price; down 1.21%; SPY to close 1,660, give or take 1 point.

 

[amoeba]

BB talked, market listened

BB speaks, people listen:

No end in sight for QE and, even after it ends, no end in sight for low interest rates, and he says, will hold securities for a "period of time" so may not sell these either.

Translation: pump the market. Expect a new high every day. Prediction for 7/19/13 is up 0.74% in the C-fund share price. SPY close at 1,701. Putting a few chips in the pot for this one (40% S fund). I am also predicting an exhaustion sell monday, so watch out, but no break in the uptrend.

 

[amoeba]

No news is good news, or is it?

Just about flat everywhere:

Very low volume; economics meeting expects. or thereabouts; the drift up to 1,700 did not quite happen, but then no breakdown either and no reason to.

Threw another pile of chips at this; now 75% in the market; spread around a bit. I have no good experiences to learn from. No matter how short, or long, I have held position, I have ended up wanting.

I expect this (low volume, low volatility) to continue through the week; expecting a test and close above 1,700 this week. Expected C-fund close will be up 0.12% tomorrow (7/23/13). SPY close at 1,697.

 

[Boghie]

Re: No news is good news, or is it?

Summer is a time for stomach churn. You should have enough in equities to get some bang, but not so much that you bang out.

My guess is that you are over-allocated in equities and you will bang out within a week. Maybe if that happens look into cutting your equities by slices - like drop to a 50% holding. And, hold that. Don't burn an IFT - which you can do by burning it in a week or by getting all out and needing to burn one in early August to get an equities position. Again, I don't think you can sleep with a 75% holding. We shall see...

 

[amoeba]

Re: No news is good news, or is it?

This year is very odd with the steep July move; as well as cresting a SPY P/E of 15 for the first time in years; I am watching this closely - my tolerance (for gains or losses) doesn't have to be high with 2 more IFT's coming up in a week. I think I can end up ahead on this one.....we'll see......

 

[Boghie]

Re: No news is good news, or is it?

I actually like your allocation, for what it is worth...

I should have checked it before opening my yak. A nice balanced allocation...

 

[amoeba]

Re: No news is good news, or is it?

Careful now:

I'm not in the top 1,000 yet. I wouldn't what to put the boogey on one's self by complementing me.

 

[amoeba]

In a cubicle, lunch smells from neighbor

The title is why I'm gonna make this short and go for a walk - every day, my neighbor cooks something in the lunchroom, very icky smell, and brings it to thine cubicle and snorts, and clinks spoons, and it SMELLS for 1/2 an hour. I need a promotion, or some more money....aaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhh:

OK - now that you know I'm nutz, here's todays musings - I bailed on I-fund hoping for a FV bonus, and still holding ~55% total C/S. Today was confusing, no reason, rhyme, for any movement, but it did end the day down a little, so my hopes to end the month in pository are temporarily on hold; I still see nothing negative in the near term - although there is some (non)Fed speak that QE taper will begin this September. Anyhow, I'm expecting the home sales to surprise tomorrow, and the markets to recover from the temporary minor blip down. C-fund to close tomorrow up 0.63%, and the SPY end-of-day at 1,703.

 

[rcknfrewld]

Re: In a cubicle, lunch smells from neighbor

I just read the <1% IFT thread, then I read it again, then I read it again, and again...now I don't know which end is up and my head hurts...I'm under the impression you are well versed with <1%IFTing...is there some rule book you follow when<1%IFTing...kind of like the cheat sheet football coaches use to see if they should go for two or not..for ex, you should round down when....you should round up when...

 

[amoeba]

You talking to me?

I just read the <1% IFT thread, then I read it again, then I read it again, and again...now I don't know which end is up and my head hurts...I'm under the impression you are well versed with <1%IFTing...is there some rule book you follow when<1%IFTing...kind of like the cheat sheet football coaches use to see if they should go for two or not..for ex, you should round down when....you should round up when...

well - as if I could even predict the stock market for a single trade (I can't); I can answer that question:

A) you may use the first, two IFT's for ANY move; into or out of any fund.

B) after those two IFT's; you may use any number of additional IFT's to move INTO the G-fund.

C) after the first IFT's; you may use any number of additional IFT's to ROUND UP (or down) by <1% in ANY fund. For example 1.01% in the I-fund and 98.99% in the G fund may be rounded to 2% I and 98% G.


As for today's trading......I did it again......exactly picked the end of a rally, let it go up one day, then lost it all - and held on.....the last two times I did this; I had a pre-set limit of 2% down in a fund before bailing.....that was breached in 4 days the first time (I cut losses, eventually buying back in at 1,585), and then - by mid-day one day later, the market clanked to 1,570 (the bottom). I actually ended up 0.1% on that highly risky move.....thinking I could get back in the next month, expecting a second top and lower right shoulder by the second week of July. Of course that didn't happen at all...kept rising like a moonshot....until I buy.

My risk tolerance (i.e., the % below buy-in share price), is lower for these latest IFT's (because it was closer what looked like the top). I'm near that already and still holding 1/2 equities (C/S). I went in thinking the economics supported a lag, but not a drop. And the home sales are not that bad - the miss is almost noise - and hardly unexpected given interest rate rises (rates are still not that high).

So I'm left with technicals - meaning - the market is topped, is headed for its 20 EMA's or lower (1,660), and doing so like water torture (a series of days). Since I'm coming up on the end of the month, I can probably bail without a miss of a bounce.........although I'd really like to catch an up day before doing so.

Tomorrow, unfortunately, I am expecting a further drop in the C-fund based on technical momentum, down to 1,677 tomorrow (7/25/13). C-fund share price to shed another 0.48%; more if the weekly claims breach 360,000.

 

[rcknfrewld]

Re: You talking to me?

so rounding up means you are buying more shares at the days closing price...rounding down means you selling your shares at the days closing price...the whole point being you can buy more shares at a cheaper price by rounding up when you think the market will close down... or you can lock in gains by rounding down when you think the market will finish up

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Re: You talking to me?

so rounding up means you are buying more shares at the days closing price...rounding down means you selling your shares at the days closing price...the whole point being you can buy more shares at a cheaper price by rounding up when you think the market will close down... or you can lock in gains by rounding down when you think the market will finish up

Yes...sorta. :blink: You are able to do the same kind of trades you do with the original IFTs, just that it is <1%. You still have to predict the closing price, since you put in your IFT by noon, and the sell or buy occurs at COB. So, yes, 'you can buy more shares at a cheaper price by rounding up when you THINK the market will close down'....but if it closes UP, you have just bought shares at a higher price. But it is so small that it really doesn't matter that much. I tried it a few times earlier, but gave up since you end up 'right' about as much as you end up 'wrong', and like I said, it's such a small amount anyway.

It does allow you to 'stay in the game' when you are out of your 2 IFTs, so it can be fun. Some people swear by it....ChessGuy for one. You can go back in either of our account talks and search for <1% and see how we did. But be careful, I got criticized by some of the 'moderators' for writing too much about it! (they said the FRTIB monitors our posts and may take it away if we get overly enthusiastic about it :toung: )

I am thinking about getting out of equities tomorrow as my second IFT. If I do, I will leave 2% in each of C,S,I,L2050, and L2040 so I can play the <1% game if I so desire!!

 

[amoeba]

part D) of the <1% rule

so rounding up means you are buying more shares at the days closing price...rounding down means you selling your shares at the days closing price...the whole point being you can buy more shares at a cheaper price by rounding up when you think the market will close down... or you can lock in gains by rounding down when you think the market will finish up

yes. And don't forget this part:

D) Additional IFT's done by rounding of <1% can ONLY be done after the TSP system updates your account.

example: So, if you have 30%I and 70%G on monday, and on tuesday, your expect a gain that would increase so that you have 30.1% I and 69.9% G; you can ONLY do the additional IFT after the TSP system updates your account, which will be 5-6 hours after the market closes, or around 10pm EST. It doesn't matter that the market closed at 4 pm. You have to wait for it to show up on the TSP system before you do the additional IFT.

 

[amoeba]

soft resistance, lower lows, not much action

There is resistence south of 1,680; but it is soft, with lower intraday lowers for the past 3 days, this one coming on a traditionally more-than-not-up friday. Overall, earnings are NOT impressing (me).

Monday will witness continued, light action, with a modest negative close (C-fund down 0.32%; SPY close at 1,678).

 

[Boghie]

Re: soft resistance, lower lows, not much action

The nicest thing about <1% moves is that you can actually increase your equity holdings somewhat significantly (kinda, and very hard to measure...).

For example, you can attempt to bump up (round up) existing holdings in the C, the S, the I, the L2020, the L2030, the L2040, and the L2050 when you have no IFTs left. If successful, you should have something like a 3% - 4% bump in equity holdings. If not successful, you really don't do anything. But let us say you panic out of the market on August 10th with your last IFT - but you craftily save one percent in all those funds - you at least have some ability to bump up your equity holdings about 3% at a time. A week of that and you are 10% - 15% more allocated to equities. Just in time for the summer swoon.

I would not waste my time with <1% moves into one fund. Why mess with gaining a half point in an allocation...

 

[Boghie]

Re: soft resistance, lower lows, not much action

Amoeba,

I see you are 100% out of equities within the allotted week. Personally, the stable increase in the S&P500 through most of Friday kinda implies that da'Boyz are buying in. They try to buy into the market at a measured pace so they do not get the speculators bidding the prices up.

Why did you get out? Especially 100% out. Is there an attack from outer space about to take place? Maybe Israel will fly F16s over Jordan, over Iraq (with a refueling pit stop), and into northern Iran, then bomb something, then fly back, refuel with the flying liquid bomb over Iraq, fly over Jordan, and back to smiling friends and family? Maybe a Thermal Nuclear War with Canada? What are you seeing?

 

[amoeba]

Re: soft resistance, lower lows, not much action

Amoeba,

I see you are 100% out of equities within the allotted week. Personally, the stable increase in the S&P500 through most of Friday kinda implies that da'Boyz are buying in. They try to buy into the market at a measured pace so they do not get the speculators bidding the prices up.

Why did you get out? Especially 100% out. Is there an attack from outer space about to take place? Maybe Israel will fly F16s over Jordan, over Iraq (with a refueling pit stop), and into northern Iran, then bomb something, then fly back, refuel with the flying liquid bomb over Iraq, fly over Jordan, and back to smiling friends and family? Maybe a Thermal Nuclear War with Canada? What are you seeing?

I saw nothing......the move was based on the magnitude of the differential between my original expectation and the actual mid-day C-fund index (I expected ~1,700 vs an intra-day noon price of 1,679); the flattening of the double top; the allowance of 2 more IFT's beginning this thursday; and the seasonally weak period in early August.

Risk of staying in or out is moderate. But I'm expecting a sorting out this week, see how Monday's trade goes, and later on in the week with the Fed and employment data. Hard to say. My gut feeling is that downside risk is greater than upside at the moment. I'm wondering if Monday will put in a lower intraday and how that will close. Hard to say.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: soft resistance, lower lows, not much action

He does have a point - probably from the land of point.