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Re: Positioning ahead of nonfarms friday after holiday - fireworks time

I will find that avatar for you dammit...I swear I have seen an avatar that has a crawling bug...Tom...back me up...i last saw it maybe a year ago...
 
Re: Positioning ahead of nonfarms friday after holiday - fireworks time

asylum has that avatar...hold on while I get my pitchforks
 
Re: Positioning ahead of nonfarms friday after holiday - fireworks time

amoeba said:
Fireworks time:

I believe that tomorrow will see some moderate volume and volatility increase; the SPY and QQQ are hovering near their 20 and 50 EMAs, or in between them, and will break; I suggest this will be slightlly negative tomorrow. I expect a SPY interday low of 1,598and close of 1,609, for a loss of about 0.19%. I think friday will be a a bigger move on low volume - around 30 points in the S&P - and I can't tell which way yet. Monday will be a follow-through (same direction) as whatever friday sees.
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aha:

my effort to generate interest in my account talk has descended to mockery; judging from the mirror-image misjudgement of even a day's forecast; I deserve it. Neer the less, to bring an end to it - no thank you - spare me further suggestions on an avatar, I like the half-smile as it is; and let's get our eyes back on the ball.


My bet still is an end-of-day, low volume fractional decline - setting up for some more significant movement friday and monday. We'll see.
 
post-fireworks gift horse predicted

For Friday, July 5, 2013, I predict the jobs number will come in line, revisions to last month minor, low volume and volatility. S&P to crest 20 EMA significantly, close at 1,626 (C-fund share price to rise 0.84%).

Next week could be lower, however.
 
Re: post-fireworks gift horse predicted

amoeba said:
For Friday, July 5, 2013, I predict the jobs number will come in line, revisions to last month minor, low volume and volatility. S&P to crest 20 EMA significantly, close at 1,626 (C-fund share price to rise 0.84%).

Next week could be lower, however.
Click to expand...

That would assume it closes above the 50 MA, which it hasn't had the strength to do so far...

Closing above 1626 would be significant for the bulls and I just don't see it happening.
 
Could be 1,640 tomorrow

RealMoneyIssues said:
That would assume it closes above the 50 MA, which it hasn't had the strength to do so far...

Closing above 1626 would be significant for the bulls and I just don't see it happening.
Click to expand...

The index will blow through both the 20 and 50 MA; but there's not much significance being a holiday. The move "could" be much more, and by that, I mean up to 1,640; but if you aren't in and/or don't cash out - you will rue monday.

I suspect there will be some early IFT's piling up before friday noon........
 
Re: Could be 1,640 tomorrow

amoeba said:
The index will blow through both the 20 and 50 MA; but there's not much significance being a holiday. The move "could" be much more, and by that, I mean up to 1,640; but if you aren't in and/or don't cash out - you will rue monday.

I suspect there will be some early IFT's piling up before friday noon........
Click to expand...
Based on the action in the FTSE today, up 3%, I think you are right about us blowing through resistance on Friday. The only way we don't is if the employment number is bad, which I don't see happening.
 
Re: Positioning ahead of nonfarms friday after holiday - fireworks time

amoeba said:
aha:

my effort to generate interest in my account talk has descended to mockery; judging from the mirror-image misjudgement of even a day's forecast; I deserve it. Neer the less, to bring an end to it - no thank you - spare me further suggestions on an avatar, I like the half-smile as it is; and let's get our eyes back on the ball.


My bet still is an end-of-day, low volume fractional decline - setting up for some more significant movement friday and monday. We'll see.
Click to expand...

Amoeba... Not that it much matters to you... But I enjoy your posts! Happy Independence Day to you. I also like your half smile avatar.. But if you ever chose to change it, I think a picture of a real amoeba would be way cool. Some are quite colorful and interesting. But I agree with you ...let's keep our eyes on the ball... And dang just wish could figure out what's happening with market. I tend to think it is going up.. For a week.
 
Incomplete followthrough means continued climb monday 7/8/13

Well, the SPY fell between my first (1,626) and second revised (1,640) daily prediction - around1,630 - easily cresting the 50 and 20 EMAs. Same for small caps, I-fund has a ways to go, hovering below the 200 EMA, while one of the forward indicators I have been following (ITB), just broke BELOW the 200 EMA, largely based on the spector of rising interest rates.

A closer look into the favorable headline jobs number reveals alot of part-timers; accordingly, I think once sorted out, this correction (meaning less than 10% drop) is not over. However, short term momentum and the someone middling friday reaction should result in a moderate, but significant climb, monday 7/8/13 - but the rest of the week remains questionable - if not risky.

My prediction for the C-fund share price change monday is about 5 pts in the S&P, or about 0.30 in the share price. Anything north of 1,640 will cause a reverse deadcat - meaning sell off big on tuesday.

No huge economic numbers coming, but there will be digestion of the jobs and interest rate changes this week.
 
Re: Incomplete followthrough means continued climb monday 7/8/13

I think our summer correction is over. Just a guess. As the ObamaCare fiasco unwinds itself we will get da'Boyz back into the game before they were ready.
 
second top gap filled - 7/9/13 to be modestly down

Downdrift predicted:

The SPY stopped right on the number - 1,640 - above which I would have said pullback; but still on a mini-streak. This will end tomorrow. C-fund share price to drop by about 0.38%; S&P to close at 1,632. There's some questions raised by interest rates, housing sector, China, and elsewhere, but nothing that is expected to produce a spike in volatility, at least a large one - tomorrow.


Could be a second top forming. Not sure.
 
Re: Positioning ahead of nonfarms friday after holiday - fireworks time

Heard on Fox business that Fed is to talk again on Wednesday....so even though Indexes for S and C funds are breaking to positive on MACD and Slow Stochastic and bollard bands are spreading for S fund index (DWCPF)...With prices looking to explode upward for S fund....I wonder what impact Fed comments will have . I want to jump in per my strategy but Fed comments areGoing to have impact ...so again... Not trusting entry point for tomorrow. Also I think S could be overbought but not sure. Lots of commentary that we are set for a hit. Uggghhhh
 
Re: Positioning ahead of nonfarms friday after holiday - fireworks time

DreamboatAnnie said:
Heard on Fox business that Fed is to talk again on Wednesday....so even though Indexes for S and C funds are breaking to positive on MACD and Slow Stochastic and bollard bands are spreading for S fund index (DWCPF)...With prices looking to explode upward for S fund....I wonder what impact Fed comments will have . I want to jump in per my strategy but Fed comments areGoing to have impact ...so again... Not trusting entry point for tomorrow. Also I think S could be overbought but not sure. Lots of commentary that we are set for a hit. Uggghhhh
Click to expand...
the water is always cold when you first dive in...after awhile it doesn't seem that bad...the longer you swim around the more fun you have
 
Prediction way off.....deserves another

Hmmm - My prediction was off both in direction and amount - way off - and as DBA says, this is overbought:

So I guess this deserves another. The scenarios are -

Door #1: Market challenges its all-time high (SPY) around 1,679, tomorrow, or

Door #2: Mid-day reversal, ending in moderate volume decline, to about 1,641.

I pick Door #2. C-fund shares to drop ~0.56%
 
Re: Prediction way off.....deserves another

C fund shares will hoist $22.50 by the end of the week. July promises to be explosive.
 
Another bad prediction....try this one for a change

After studying the Fed minutes, which I did not expect, and considering the countervening factor:

I predict a follow-through, with an historic high in the SPY tomorrow; 1,670. C-fund shares to rise by 1.12% on 7/11/13.

I am not sure how long this particular streak of 4-5 updays will continue, if at all.
 
Re: Another bad prediction....try this one for a change

Amoeba,

You trade within 1 Standard Deviation of S&P500 Daily Returns. That is, you tend to make moves based on normal market noise. Market noise is about -1% through +1%. Any move within this range happens about 70% of the time. It is VERY bad to be out of the market based on nothing more than market noise since the market moves up in general.

I am trying to get the 2nd Standard Deviation of actual S&P500 Daily Returns. Personally, I will probably consider those noise as well. They should occur about 95% of the time. Reality is a bit different. The returns a peaky and they have fat tails. That source summarizes the StD for each decade and from 1950 onward. Very nice, but would have liked the actual percentage breakdown. But, basically 96% of the time the S&P500 daily returns fall within 2 StDs.

I am interested in computationally tracking on market downward turns. I got the Top/Bottom 20 days from Wikipedia and that demonstrated a correlation but it wasn't fine enough. I think I am interested in the Top/Bottom 50. That might catch the turns. I want to avoid market head fakes.

Anyway, consuming one of your two IFTs on a -0.50% Daily move means that you are out of the market a huge percentage of the time.
 
signs of trouble ahead? but not much.....

Last week witnessed a grossly overextended rally fueled by reaction to Fed comments:

This ignored a tick up in jobless claims, declining oil inventories, rising PPI, and hence, other slight signs of inflation. Plus - volatility has fallen to concerning (low) levels.

I am expecting this week to be flat, but tomorrow (7/15/13), to be slightly negative; A 0.17% drop in the share price of the C-fund, with perhaps a further drop on wednesday.

I see no near-term opportunity to make money at these levels; but markets can, and have in the past - gone to much farther overextended levels and multiples. I say no. Staying out for now.
 
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