amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

program selling based on what?

The selling today was all program trading - nothing to worry about.

Except I have no idea what was being programmed to produce a big sell; the number of times BB said the words "QE" and "end" in the same sentence?

I ended up above negative return for the year....is all I can say positive about today. Hope this doesn't linger into the holiday.

 

[amoeba]

letting it ride - not at stop loss (yet)

letting most of it ride bcz haven't lost (or gained) that much (I have a limit); see what tomorrow (5/24/13) brings; hopefully positive/low volume pre-holiday bias.

 

[amoeba]

downward momentum continues in face of good durable goods# and light volume

bailed:

not because I didn't believe in the trade, but only because my loss limit (2%) was hit in under 3 days before noon; including today, it will be ~negative 2.5% at least. What on earth? That durable goods # should have stopped this; I replayed BB's response (famous last words) about tapering QE in the "next few meetings", so maybe that is lingering, or it is just good ol' multiple contraction/correction, and nothing else matters.

In any case, time to lick my wounds, and regroup.

 

[Boghie]

Re: downward momentum continues in face of good durable goods# and light volume

Ouch Amoeba, just ouch...

Concur with FWM. If you looked at both today's S&P500 and yesterdays it is apparent that enough folks are buying to keep things ok. We are down a little over 2% from the all time high. The question is, are da'Boyz doing the buying or the selling.

Regardless, if you invest in equities you absolutely have to have the stomach to deal with a 2% correction. You have to be able to deal with more than that. Normal markets move more than that in pure noise. Now, you have nothing left if the market cuts the 'losses' in half on Tuesday.

I'm actually looking at getting in a bit more into equities at SMA50s (as close as I can get blending the three equity funds). Hopefully this thing will drop a little more...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: downward momentum continues in face of good durable goods# and light volume

Stock Bubble: Wait for it to Pop | Toby Connor | Safehaven.com

 

[amoeba]

bad trade but losses cut

Bad trade could have been much worse, I picked the worst of the worst (I and F):

I am looking at the DMA's and, as BB said, "the data." We'll see next friday. I'm not that interested in the consecutive tuesday aberration; I don't care how long or short it continues.

 

[Boghie]

Re: bad trade but losses cut

It might actually be time to start looking into purchasing more of the 'I Fund'... It is down almost 6% from the recent highs...

The 'F Fund' is another story. It isn't even worth the effort to math out. We will have no idea when the FED stops buying the crap, and we have no idea when folks will open up their quarterly statements and exclaim - Yowser, I was dumb enough to think this was safe!!! Gotta run. Gotta go.

Personally, I think the public sector debt grinders are in for loads of trouble. Who really wants to invest in someone who buys their groceries via credit card???

 

[amoeba]

Re: bad trade but losses cut

famous last words boghie:

I is down another 2% as we speak; nawww - I think we are in a seasonal sell-off in early june (see JTH's account talk) - as well as a testing mode on the 50 EMA (for C and S; I is already broken); I think the jobs data will be more or less on target.....there could just be a sentiment shift right now.

Hard to say. I am just about done with F-fund unless there is a much more extreme reading; I even held out for the 6/3/13 dividend (didn't help much, but I shoulda woulda coulda dumped it, but dumb me held onto the IFT as opposed to staying positive for the month, oh well).

As far as debt grinders go - - - - the public gets who they voted for, and the decisions that were made - - - namely, a lame POTUS who delegates, agrees to nonsensical partial deal that eternalizes tax breaks for the rich (20% upper limit on cap gains, after what was it - - - your first 200K, or was it even higher?) and now wants to renegotiate or something like that.

I don't even wish anyone good luck - - - - at the end of the current CR - - - - expect de ja vous gridlock all over again. And that's not far off (10/1/13).

 

[amoeba]

for either posterity or the 2 other forum members that read my account talk.....

I bailed today: Don't wanna have anything to do with the jobs report tomorrow, especially after a gift horse deadcat bounce today; and didn't we just have one of those deadcats earlier this week? how quickly we forget. anyway.....I ditched the last of that infernal F-fund....I think I'm outta that for the rest of this season until BB can keep his yap shut. Or better yet, quit manipulating the markets with green ink (or is it red?).

I think tomorrow is fractional change, and next monday sharply down. We'll see.

Out.

 

[Boghie]

Re: for either posterity or the 2 other forum members that read my account talk.....

Kinda concur. Sort of...

What kindof crash is the 4% destruction of wealth we have sustained since the recent highs?
We were doing that - and twice that - in a single day in 2008/09.

And, I could sustain a 'C Fund' loss of about 12% before I zero out. Not too worried about it. Might move 10% one way or the other next week - or I might wait a bit till I see the whites of the market's eyes. Those IFTs can be the gold standard in a moving market, eh...

 

[amoeba]

Re: for either posterity or the 2 other forum members that read my account talk.....

FWM is on target for the S, except that the 50 EMA has (in S and C), been hit only 2 days this whole year - hardly a golden opportunity; you can't say the same for the I, or the F:, it's more visible in other indices like housing (ITB), but that is now treading water with the 20 and 50 EMA's ready to cross. Don't know if it will hold up. Still have an IFT, still waiting a bit to use it perhaps, this month.

 

[amoeba]

Technicals? close, or no cigar.

50 EMA in SPY hit today. barely. very tough call bcz of other info (interest rate rise, crude build, etc.). could not pull trigger today. got burned knee jerking last time.

 

[amoeba]

clueless....eyes on FED

I have a feeling this market will break one way or another, beginning this week.....just clueless as to which.....

 

[amoeba]

FED speaks...slide continues...hoping for a big gap end of day...deadcat friday

I have a feeling this market will break one way or another, beginning this week.....just clueless as to which.....

That was 3 days ago, and now we know; it's a sizable 2-day move down, with ^VIX at a ~2 year high; I-fund at a low for the year; everything else dragged down with it. I went all in, hoping that there would be a significant gap below 1,612, but can't tell yet. Also, we are looking at a 200+ million trade on the SPY, 2 consecutive days; the first time since 6/6-7. I am looking for some serious deadcat action tomorrow. However, the noon deadline on highly volatile days make it a bit of a dice roll.

My tolerances are gonna be 2% further downside, maybe less for upside. I'm a bit surprised by the light IFT action today. Maybe less surprised depending on what tomorrow brings.....

Amoeba out.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: FED speaks...slide continues...hoping for a big gap end of day...deadcat friday

Allow me to shake your hand - all in is the courage that's necessary to make some money. You're slowly turning into a contrarian and that's a good thing. Welcome into the pool.

 

[amoeba]

Re: FED speaks...slide continues...hoping for a big gap end of day...deadcat friday

Got the big gap; crushed the 50 EMA; and heaviest SPY volume (320M+ shares) since May 18, 2012 (actually November 11, and 29, 2011, if you want to split hairs):

Each of these crusher days was followed by a 1.5-2% rebound in the very near term (1-5 trading days); so let's that cat bounce! And any intervening days....prior to the cat bounce, were fractional.

So let's hear it (cha ching?).

 

[sniper]

Re: FED speaks...slide continues...hoping for a big gap end of day...deadcat friday

Got the big gap; crushed the 50 EMA; and heaviest SPY volume (320M+ shares) since May 18, 2012 (actually November 11, and 29, 2011, if you want to split hairs):

Each of these crusher days was followed by a 1.5-2% rebound in the very near term (1-5 trading days); so let's that cat bounce! And any intervening days....prior to the cat bounce, were fractional.

So let's hear it (cha ching?).

ok who kidnapped the real amoeba and hacked his account? :laugh:

 

[amoeba]

Re: FED speaks...slide continues...hoping for a big gap end of day...deadcat friday

ok who kidnapped the real amoeba and hacked his account? :laugh:

Nobody. I just don't see this selling volume being sustained more than a few days without a break...the news just isn't that bad.....of course....I am just about never right on these things.

 

[amoeba]

betcha nobody sleeps late this friday

A 2%+ move before noon (friday 6/21/13) would be nice; and I would cash out on it.......and cya after independence day. C'mon....hip hip!!!

 

[amoeba]

ptooey! wrong again.

A 2%+ move before noon (friday 6/21/13) would be nice; and I would cash out on it.......and cya after independence day. C'mon....hip hip!!!

hip hip ptooey!

markets just collapsed near the IFT deadline; the recovered; but the projected move was south of support at the time so I bailed. Volume was, again, very high.....not the 2008-2009 take no prisoners, but enough for concern; I made it outta here with marginal gain. I am expecting further deterioration next week - nothing to indicate a bounce from here - that should have started today.....but NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Need to stop the selling to reach a bottom, and it looks to be taking longer than I predicted.