amoeba's Account Talk

[PessOptimist]

Re: No news is good news, or is it?

Birchtree, your references to things from the past always make me smile...and wonder if others dismiss them as "birchisms" or actually google them.

My regards to Arrow.

PO

 

[jpcavin]

Re: No news is good news, or is it?

Birchtree, your references to things from the past always make me smile...and wonder if others dismiss them as "birchisms" or actually google them.

My regards to Arrow.

PO

I do!

Birch, is that in reference to Oblio's transformation?

 

[amoeba]

no lower intraday low, but lower close; expect more of same.

There is resistence south of 1,680; but it is soft, with lower intraday lowers for the past 3 days, this one coming on a traditionally more-than-not-up friday. Overall, earnings are NOT impressing (me).

Monday will witness continued, light action, with a modest negative close (C-fund down 0.32%; SPY close at 1,678).

A bit off; down 0.37% instead of my predicted 0.32% (ha ha; random numbers will predict better than me); I see today as a denial hoper's hold; that there will never, ever, be a correction, this year.....so it will take some time to shake these Ostrich heads out of the sand. More of the same tomorrow. Light action, slightly down. Not much more than noise.

Prediction for 7/30/13: -0.43% share price in C-fund; SPY to close at 1,677

 

[amoeba]

cannot tell - looks like a sell on no news coming?

Hmmm: wrong direction, wrong amount yesterday. Try again?

7/31/13 trading will witness slight downside action, based on combination of weaker than expected confidence, as aspected (weak) GDP, and more non-commital FOMC statements.

1,680 resistance firming.

My guess is a close right at 1,680; C-fund share price down 0.28%.

Expect the 1,670 first top (2 months ago) to be challenged in early August. No sense of what might come thereafter.

 

[Boghie]

Re: cannot tell - looks like a sell on no news coming?

Guessed that we were heading for a small summer swoon, so cut my equities to 60% or so...

Guessed wrong, and still got 60% of the gain.

Like it

Another point or two of gain and that littlish number on the left of my balance will bump up. I will have tripled my balance since January 2005 or so... So very yummy... I can almost live off of a 72(T) withdraw plan. It would be a Social Security Dog Food plan, but not bad for someone with lots of earning years left.

The market gains 75% of the time. If you are 100% out of the market 75% of the time you will not gain with it. Just saying...

 

[amoeba]

Lower resistance broken; now what? (I'll tell you what I think)

I'll tell you:

I think there is a metagap created by the 8-9 biz day string in the S-fund (July 3-22, 2013) which will be filled; that one is in a range of at least 840-881; which was barely touched today.

The S-fund cycle takes two forms; one of those is a rapid correction where there is 3/5 days negative ~4-5%; followed by a grind up (e.g., Jun3 19-25; April 12-18); the other is a "fakeout" where 1 or more of those down days is insignificant, such as on May 22, so it doesn't reach a true bottom until much later and lower (in that case, it was June 24).

I've played these wrong multiple times this year, entering too early in the decline.....I think the safer way is to wait it out for a turn back up.
Judging from the S-fund behavior this year, I see the intermediate correction bottom somewhere in the lower end of the range (840) - but it could be a little higher, or significantly lower.

At this moment, my best guess is another 4% down this month.

I-fund is really departing from C-fund recently; I haven't figured that one out - can't tell if it is leading (and C-fund will follow) - or if it following (and will decline next week); or the relation between the behavior of these funds has somehow gotten disconnected for some good or bad reason (e.g., the first positive growth number for EU recently?)

 

[amoeba]

what's more likely next week?

According to the latest forum poll and sentiment survey, more likely to have a visit from extraterrestrials than a reversal (uptrend) in the market....and not likely to have either, imo. Stay tuned.

 

[amoeba]

Re: what's more likely next week?

hmmm:

Market is drifting lower, but on moderate volume; not sure what to make of this --- locally --- home sales have started decline slightly around me I suspect due to interest rates and a huge run-up in prices (50% in 1 yr, median home sale); some of that is interest rate-independent (i.e., all cash investors). There's also more shadow inventory coming into the market.....so what happens when the Fed stops purchasing mortgage debt? (answer: interest rates will rise more).

Hard to predict this market - - - so much government intervention - - - it is almost an expected....

I don't have much interest in the fed minutes - they are a month old and pretty much will say what everyone seems to know....taper coming.

 

[MrBowl]

Re: what's more likely next week?

I think the taper will be delayed. A Fed member, or maybe even Ben himself, will state this because they cannot be satisfied with the economy's performance this summer.

 

[amoeba]

Re: what's more likely next week?

I think the taper will be delayed. A Fed member, or maybe even Ben himself, will state this because they cannot be satisfied with the economy's performance this summer.

Wednesday is just release of July's minutes; BB was the first to suggest september as the earliest for a taper; so if it starts early next year, that's not worth a press conference. There's no way to keep interest rates this low any longer with the spector of a taper; Yo Bama wants the Feds to ease out of the mortage biz anyway.

The market is reacting accordingly.....although late in summer, this is seasonal anyhow.

I almost fainted when I saw myself in the top 1,000 of the tracker....next stop....rank #950!!!

 

[Handballer]

Re: what's more likely next week?

Way to go.

 

[amoeba]

Way I went, was down, AGAIN!!!!

Way to go.

The way I went was down today.....I took a risk on yesterday as a turnaround point ahead of the Fed minutes (bottoms have occurred just below the 50 EMA, often after 3/5 down days totalling 4+%, which we had).....and down it went again and then some.....on sizable volume.

That was the fastest 0.3% I have ever lost. My last attempt at the market.....a month ago, cleared a negatory 0.2%.....and that was after 10 days of waiting for an out. Of course, the market peaked up another 1.5%, before giving up all that and another 3% in the space of a week.

I need to do better than cutting my losses, but on bad trades....like I've been doing recently....it's better than sticking my head in the sand.


Now - on to the Fed minutes. Nothing that positive, or negative, in there....other than support for the taper.....which we all knew about. Maybe there was expectation of equivocation on the taper, and failing that, the market sold off.

Hard to say. Unlike Obama, however, I can admit when I am wrong. See you all next month.

 

[amoeba]

How about another 5% down before jumping off the next bridge?

Of course:

After I bailed, the market returned and exceeded my buy point - albeit for just 3 days - with 1,650 not to be seen since (now at 1,632); next month is at best a crap shoot.....not sure if I'm done knife-catching, yet.....so it goes.....I'm looking at some lower buy-in levels now that the 50 EMAs have been thoroughly breached, hmmmmm......how about 815 for the S-fund? (currently around 865) - just above the 10% de minimus "correction" level (i.e., 10% down from the 8/5/13 peak of 908)

 

[amoeba]

I say one thing, change my mind, and the market does the opposite.....bcz....

Of course:

After I bailed, the market returned and exceeded my buy point - albeit for just 3 days - with 1,650 not to be seen since (now at 1,632); next month is at best a crap shoot.....not sure if I'm done knife-catching, yet.....so it goes.....I'm looking at some lower buy-in levels now that the 50 EMAs have been thoroughly breached, hmmmmm......how about 815 for the S-fund? (currently around 865) - just above the 10% de minimus "correction" level (i.e., 10% down from the 8/5/13 peak of 908)

Of course, the second I open my yap, the market futures reverse big time.....apparently....due to YoBama unable to get the votes to get into Syria (there is no basis for USA to react, no treaty, and yes...chem weapons are a bad thing.....but not our biz), so he'll lay it on Congress to bitch slap him; and the market....relaxing from the tension of any USA strike (and any subsequent terrorist counterstrike)....says "yay".

I predict over 1.5% up, possibly +2% in the S-fund tuesday....not sure whether this will sustain through the week. If there is some sort of flattening near the IFT deadline, I may give it a roll myself.

 

[Holden_Caufield]

Re: I say one thing, change my mind, and the market does the opposite.....bcz....

hey amoeba, i'm not sure if you'e aware but i bequeathed my TSPTalk mug to you in the august auto track thread. take care, old friend.

 

[amoeba]

chickened out

As I suspected:

The market faded hard into the IFT deadline today (9/2/13), but not across the flatline, so it could be strong fade to negative.....indicating other issues.....or it could reverse to say- - - - 1,650+, which, as my last attempt proved was not not the best buy-in point (it is probably resistance more than anything right now).

Obama and his cronies continues to wimp away; absent international support - USA has no biz in Syria.

Now he can concentrate on his other National agenda of keeping guns away from the neighborhood watch so the illegitimate juvenile hoods visiting their bio fathers can beat up the watch volunteers without fear of being shot by their victims. Didn't that deserve a press conference a few weeks ago, without questions, and an announced Civil Rights investigation?

Jee, how's that one going prez?

 

[Boghie]

Re: chickened out

Syria is not the issue. Just one of the many issues.

The FED may soon end their subsidies for gubmint spending. Interest rates will rise and our debt will explode. We are becoming a part-time employment nation as a result of ObamaCare with the resulting detriment to our tax base. And, the Treasury has already spent our 'G Fund' assets. That is why I gave them some more:embarrest:

 

[FAB1]

Re: chickened out

Syria is not the issue. Just one of the many issues.

The FED may soon end their subsidies for gubmint spending. Interest rates will rise and our debt will explode. We are becoming a part-time employment nation as a result of ObamaCare with the resulting detriment to our tax base. And, the Treasury has already spent our 'G Fund' assets. That is why I gave them some more:embarrest:

Surely you jest. I just bought some Stocks with real honest to goodness money in my G fund :suspicious:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: chickened out

I decided to look for you on the tracker today and had to put fresh batteries in my flashlight - at #983 you are at least higher than malyla at 1015 and that's progress. If you don't know who you are, this is an expensive place to find out. If you don't get in you run the risk of getting left behind once more.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: chickened out

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