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amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
uscfanhawaii
Active member
Re: chickened out
I can't tell......is that sarcasm?!? You need to use the ' :suspicious: or :notrust: ' or something. :blink:
I can't tell......is that sarcasm?!? You need to use the ' :suspicious: or :notrust: ' or something. :blink:
MrBowl
Well-known member
I actually got out today. Thinking that the seasonality of cyber Monday along with sentiment survey and the 6-8 week interval of dips this year has put early dec as a time I would briefly step aside. I have usually been wrong on these this year. But, wrong or right, my intention was to be back in soon.
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: Market doesn't seem to care about EPS anymore
Amoeba,
A 16 P/E is not a bubble. Might be a tad high, but bubble territory is higher.
Why does every year have to be a crash? Why look at 2008, why not look at 1929? It is just as dumb to set your investments to 2008 as it is to set your investments to 2009 or 1999. You have to be stable (maybe reduce risk as the market falls, but...) in both the up and the down markets. Otherwise, you will be making less than 2% per year.
Amoeba,
A 16 P/E is not a bubble. Might be a tad high, but bubble territory is higher.
Why does every year have to be a crash? Why look at 2008, why not look at 1929? It is just as dumb to set your investments to 2008 as it is to set your investments to 2009 or 1999. You have to be stable (maybe reduce risk as the market falls, but...) in both the up and the down markets. Otherwise, you will be making less than 2% per year.
uscfanhawaii
Active member
Re: chickened out
Oh....OK!! Sorry! Sometimes it's hard to tell on these boards!!! :embarrest:
Oh....OK!! Sorry! Sometimes it's hard to tell on these boards!!! :embarrest:
Perfect record for 2013 - bad timing all over the place continues
Well.....I have learned nothing:
The earlier pattern of big up days early in the month changed.....not November....and not this month either. And.....in contrast to past years when a mild thanksgiving week was followed by a stronger following week, not this time.
Plus - I just don't see the basis for the volatility, unless, contrary to Boghie (and by the way, I think I am agreeing with you on that one) - that moderate increases in PE multiples are not cause for concern, that mentality has changed on a dime.
In any case, yes, I banged my head this morning on the brief uptick today (the dips- when they come - tend to come in three-day-periods, and - of course, that changed when I held like a ninny through November 8, bailed, and up the market went again). Might as well post my prediction for today - since everyone will take it as a contrary indicator anyway, here you go:
Big fade toward the close at the last half hour.
Well.....I have learned nothing:
The earlier pattern of big up days early in the month changed.....not November....and not this month either. And.....in contrast to past years when a mild thanksgiving week was followed by a stronger following week, not this time.
Plus - I just don't see the basis for the volatility, unless, contrary to Boghie (and by the way, I think I am agreeing with you on that one) - that moderate increases in PE multiples are not cause for concern, that mentality has changed on a dime.
In any case, yes, I banged my head this morning on the brief uptick today (the dips- when they come - tend to come in three-day-periods, and - of course, that changed when I held like a ninny through November 8, bailed, and up the market went again). Might as well post my prediction for today - since everyone will take it as a contrary indicator anyway, here you go:
Big fade toward the close at the last half hour.
polarbear
Member
Re: Free Lunch returns week continues
Yes, rock on, or in the words of FireWeatherMet, I am watching the C, S, and I show from the vantage point of my seat in the G gallery. I dare opine that we may get a fractal set of dead cat bounces (or DCB's, as it appears to be hip on this website to refer to them) before any eoy rally. It's all pretty dicey now. And the 3-ring circus in Washington appears to be just warming up.
Yes, rock on, or in the words of FireWeatherMet, I am watching the C, S, and I show from the vantage point of my seat in the G gallery. I dare opine that we may get a fractal set of dead cat bounces (or DCB's, as it appears to be hip on this website to refer to them) before any eoy rally. It's all pretty dicey now. And the 3-ring circus in Washington appears to be just warming up.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Before a DCB, you need a floor to bounce off of.....
I would agree, except that before any DCB, you need a significant drop to bounce; and then, another fall off the bounce top; this hasn't occurred in awhile.....but it is an interesting thought.
I say a large upside surprise on the non-farms tomorrow; let's say 280,000; if so - the market should tank more significantly on taper speculation. A number near forecast will result in an immediate bounce, however.
I would agree, except that before any DCB, you need a significant drop to bounce; and then, another fall off the bounce top; this hasn't occurred in awhile.....but it is an interesting thought.
I say a large upside surprise on the non-farms tomorrow; let's say 280,000; if so - the market should tank more significantly on taper speculation. A number near forecast will result in an immediate bounce, however.
JimmyJoe
Member
Re: Before a DCB, you need a floor to bounce off of.....
Where do they get these guys? Amoeba, the minute you get some self contrived proof that the market will go down you rear your head up and make speculative comments about the market free fall, just in time to see the market pop up, guaranteed. Birchtree is right, you are a contrarian indicator of markets moving upward. I don't know what to say any further. Good luck. Markets are definitely going up tomorrow.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Before a DCB, you need a floor to bounce off of.....
I know for sure you will not let the 2014 bull catch you by surprise. This market is likely to suck everyone in no matter how stretched everything becomes and no matter how great the risk of being cast into perdition in the pyroclastic collapse to come. Stay safe.
I know for sure you will not let the 2014 bull catch you by surprise. This market is likely to suck everyone in no matter how stretched everything becomes and no matter how great the risk of being cast into perdition in the pyroclastic collapse to come. Stay safe.
JimmyJoe
Member
I'm not alone this time....100% G
If the close holds up, and it looks like it will; I will end the year at a whopping 0.00% annual gain:
But this time, as the tracer recent IFTs evince, I am not alone on this one.
The sentiment survey is an outlier - - - the last time it did this? (70+% bull) - exactly one year ago, holiday week.
The reason for the exit was the extreme distance between the S-fund price and its 200 EMA (~105+), anything more than that has put on the brakes, and stiffly so - the last 3-4 times this year. In fact, it was risky to make an entry last friday - but for the holiday mood and the light trading that goes along with it.
I'd rather lick my wounds this year than dress any more.....see ya next year.
Happy Holidays!
If the close holds up, and it looks like it will; I will end the year at a whopping 0.00% annual gain:
But this time, as the tracer recent IFTs evince, I am not alone on this one.
The sentiment survey is an outlier - - - the last time it did this? (70+% bull) - exactly one year ago, holiday week.
The reason for the exit was the extreme distance between the S-fund price and its 200 EMA (~105+), anything more than that has put on the brakes, and stiffly so - the last 3-4 times this year. In fact, it was risky to make an entry last friday - but for the holiday mood and the light trading that goes along with it.
I'd rather lick my wounds this year than dress any more.....see ya next year.
Happy Holidays!
JTH
Well-known member
Re: Free Lunch returns week continues
Thus far, on the Auto Tracker there are 9210 IFTs, of which you ranked in 2nd place, performing 50.
Of the top 50 folks who performed the most IFT's, they comprised 15.58% of all IFTs made and not one of them outperformed the S&P 500.
Of those top 50, only 2 (including you) have a negative return.
I'm saying this in the nicest way I possibly can, whatever it is you are doing, you should stop doing it, it's not working for you.
Thus far, on the Auto Tracker there are 9210 IFTs, of which you ranked in 2nd place, performing 50.
Of the top 50 folks who performed the most IFT's, they comprised 15.58% of all IFTs made and not one of them outperformed the S&P 500.
Of those top 50, only 2 (including you) have a negative return.
I'm saying this in the nicest way I possibly can, whatever it is you are doing, you should stop doing it, it's not working for you.
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