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amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
will VIX crossover its 20 EMA?
Pardon me, its less than 3% loss on 5% of my assets; and, judging from my multiplicity of badly-timed moves last calender year; smaller moves are in order initially to perform trial and error on whatever new strategy I'm trying.
I do plan to move back in (with a larger move) once the VIX crosses over its 20 EMA (~14); might give it one more day - as this is another unusually high volume friday. It could indicate the bottom of the "V", as we call it.
Pardon me, its less than 3% loss on 5% of my assets; and, judging from my multiplicity of badly-timed moves last calender year; smaller moves are in order initially to perform trial and error on whatever new strategy I'm trying.
I do plan to move back in (with a larger move) once the VIX crosses over its 20 EMA (~14); might give it one more day - as this is another unusually high volume friday. It could indicate the bottom of the "V", as we call it.
Cold bitter soup
Make that, much later.....I'll sit on a bit of F-fund for now.....maybe I'll give equities another try if the S-fund can find a bottom before it violates its 200 EMA; not for now, however.
Make that, much later.....I'll sit on a bit of F-fund for now.....maybe I'll give equities another try if the S-fund can find a bottom before it violates its 200 EMA; not for now, however.
changed my mind
I threw some chips in before work-related travel early friday 2/7/14 based on a bet/miss on the jobs number would cause a retreat; I was right on jobs, wrong on the reaction; but there you have it.
I'll be looking for anything north of 1,800 to GTF outta this month; hopefully to pull even with the G-fund.....try again later. Seeyathen.
I threw some chips in before work-related travel early friday 2/7/14 based on a bet/miss on the jobs number would cause a retreat; I was right on jobs, wrong on the reaction; but there you have it.
I'll be looking for anything north of 1,800 to GTF outta this month; hopefully to pull even with the G-fund.....try again later. Seeyathen.
Re: changed my mind
Hmmm. VIX 20 EMA dropping, but still above its 50 and 200 EMAs, and north of 15, so - - - gonna hang on to the bits I have in equities (5%) and see if I can pull even with the G-fund.
Hmmm. VIX 20 EMA dropping, but still above its 50 and 200 EMAs, and north of 15, so - - - gonna hang on to the bits I have in equities (5%) and see if I can pull even with the G-fund.
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: changed my mind
Hard to see what holding 5% in equities will get you.
Had you kept your 'sticky pants' on last year with that 5% it would have improved your return to about 1.7%. That is beer money. You have to have a reasonable amount in equities to get a reasonable return. You can watch for the big downturns and drop your trousers at those optimum times, but dropping them all the time will put you on a street corner during your golden years. Wearing trousers a bit low in the waist doesn't do anything good either.
If you are this risk adverse than just mix G and F and be done with it. At a 50/50 allocation for G/F your 10 year return would be around 4%. Inflation would be around 3%. So, at least you would probably be +1% on inflation. You could double that amazing return by holding 30/50/20/0/0 and not touching it. I don't like the 'F Fund' right now, but...
Right now, you are actually losing money in a huge bull market. Hard to do. Dangerous to do.
Hard to see what holding 5% in equities will get you.
Had you kept your 'sticky pants' on last year with that 5% it would have improved your return to about 1.7%. That is beer money. You have to have a reasonable amount in equities to get a reasonable return. You can watch for the big downturns and drop your trousers at those optimum times, but dropping them all the time will put you on a street corner during your golden years. Wearing trousers a bit low in the waist doesn't do anything good either.
If you are this risk adverse than just mix G and F and be done with it. At a 50/50 allocation for G/F your 10 year return would be around 4%. Inflation would be around 3%. So, at least you would probably be +1% on inflation. You could double that amazing return by holding 30/50/20/0/0 and not touching it. I don't like the 'F Fund' right now, but...
Right now, you are actually losing money in a huge bull market. Hard to do. Dangerous to do.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: changed my mind
There is still so much fear causing investors like our friend to sit on the sidelines, this bull market has a long ways to run as they gradually warm up to taking risks again. The bull market no one believes in - just the way I like it. Perhaps amoeba is worried that the 120 year cycle (Kress) is in its final hard down phase either this year or next year would only add impetus to the crash he sees following a breath taking rally to new highs. If he's correct we all pay a dear price - but I'll take my chances going forward.
There is still so much fear causing investors like our friend to sit on the sidelines, this bull market has a long ways to run as they gradually warm up to taking risks again. The bull market no one believes in - just the way I like it. Perhaps amoeba is worried that the 120 year cycle (Kress) is in its final hard down phase either this year or next year would only add impetus to the crash he sees following a breath taking rally to new highs. If he's correct we all pay a dear price - but I'll take my chances going forward.
TSP-roulette
Well-known member
Re: changed my mind
I think Amoeba might just blow a lid and.......well, just watch.
Watchmen- Leave Me Alone - YouTube
I think Amoeba might just blow a lid and.......well, just watch.
Watchmen- Leave Me Alone - YouTube
Re: changed my mind
Ummm - looks like both of us are licking wounds so far this year. I'll see ya next month. My goal is 100 IFT's for the year.
Ummm - looks like both of us are licking wounds so far this year. I'll see ya next month. My goal is 100 IFT's for the year.
at least till COB today
Well, no I didn't, and your I-fund has diverged from S-fund by 2.5% this week, so you'll may pass me COB today. My .04% year-to-date is nothing to gloat about, especially when it involves a 0.3% loss through the month already.
The year to date, and monthly leader (Richard62) who is now excluded from viewing since he's a premium member, has been playing the F and I funds; dunno what he's smokin, but he's smoken north of 10% so far.
As for me......yick.
Well, no I didn't, and your I-fund has diverged from S-fund by 2.5% this week, so you'll may pass me COB today. My .04% year-to-date is nothing to gloat about, especially when it involves a 0.3% loss through the month already.
The year to date, and monthly leader (Richard62) who is now excluded from viewing since he's a premium member, has been playing the F and I funds; dunno what he's smokin, but he's smoken north of 10% so far.
As for me......yick.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: at least till COB today
SP500, Things Happen in Threes | readtheticker | Safehaven.com
There is a good possibility I moved up some on the tracker today - was it enough?
SP500, Things Happen in Threes | readtheticker | Safehaven.com
There is a good possibility I moved up some on the tracker today - was it enough?
Tomorrow is anothah day!
And I have no clue.....I share an office with someone in the current top 20 in our tracker....I am in a clusterfog of trader's block right now, no feeling of what to do or not.
I've moved up 600 spots on the tracker myself and still south of the G-fund (#160). Big deal.
And I have no clue.....I share an office with someone in the current top 20 in our tracker....I am in a clusterfog of trader's block right now, no feeling of what to do or not.
I've moved up 600 spots on the tracker myself and still south of the G-fund (#160). Big deal.
Re: Tomorrow is anothah day!
Hey Dude, you're the one with the mug and the tee! You gotta be doing something right. I never count my chickens...
Hey Dude, you're the one with the mug and the tee! You gotta be doing something right. I never count my chickens...
Re: Tomorrow is anothah day!
Hi Dorado! (aka "buffett"):
You're the one with the chickens (i.e., returns); I haven't done anything right since 2008 when I won the t-shirt; the mug was a lucky guess but yeah - it is nice; I'll bring it in for coffee next week.
Amoeba
Hi Dorado! (aka "buffett"):
You're the one with the chickens (i.e., returns); I haven't done anything right since 2008 when I won the t-shirt; the mug was a lucky guess but yeah - it is nice; I'll bring it in for coffee next week.
Amoeba
JTH
Well-known member
Re: Monday blues commeth
I am utterly amazed you have not consumed your 2 IFTs yet, perhaps I was wrong and there's hope for you yet...
I am utterly amazed you have not consumed your 2 IFTs yet, perhaps I was wrong and there's hope for you yet...
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