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amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
Re: Monday blues commeth
Well, I went all "F" early in the month and wondered how long that train would run. It's always a gamble as to when to spend your two monthly tickets.
Well, I went all "F" early in the month and wondered how long that train would run. It's always a gamble as to when to spend your two monthly tickets.
Another week in current trading range in store..but then
Expect no huge move this week, just more dips and rips in the current trading range:
APPL announced buyback and possible split; but I think there's gonna be less buoyancy come early May; keep the powder dry seems the best course; nothing north of 1880 likely in the near term; 3 years without a true correction(-10% minimum) - while explainable by low interest and QE - still is long in the tooth.
I'm at my year-to-date ranking high; #159 at last look. If we see 1,880 - 1,890 before friday; expect some cashing out until next Fed comments +/or other significant news.
Expect no huge move this week, just more dips and rips in the current trading range:
APPL announced buyback and possible split; but I think there's gonna be less buoyancy come early May; keep the powder dry seems the best course; nothing north of 1880 likely in the near term; 3 years without a true correction(-10% minimum) - while explainable by low interest and QE - still is long in the tooth.
I'm at my year-to-date ranking high; #159 at last look. If we see 1,880 - 1,890 before friday; expect some cashing out until next Fed comments +/or other significant news.
So what does Boghie think is important?
Oh how slow am I?
Cannot read minds - so - what does Boghie think is so much more influential than the FED, who's chief keeps yellen one way or the other, crushing the market with two words ("....6 months...."), and buoy it back by saying something different a week later ("....considerable time.....").
Surely, you don't believe anyone is gonna really deploy against Russia if they make an on the ground move?
I'm not so sure what the outcome would be if that occurred. Not gonna happen....Russia will do as it pleases....and no one, including wimp in chief - NATO - or anyone else, will - or can - do anything effective about it. Ergo, not a market factor.
So - what else are ye thinking?
Oh how slow am I?
Cannot read minds - so - what does Boghie think is so much more influential than the FED, who's chief keeps yellen one way or the other, crushing the market with two words ("....6 months...."), and buoy it back by saying something different a week later ("....considerable time.....").
Surely, you don't believe anyone is gonna really deploy against Russia if they make an on the ground move?
I'm not so sure what the outcome would be if that occurred. Not gonna happen....Russia will do as it pleases....and no one, including wimp in chief - NATO - or anyone else, will - or can - do anything effective about it. Ergo, not a market factor.
So - what else are ye thinking?
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: So what does Boghie think is important?
Well,
What do wimps with muscle do when their manhood is questioned? They then act tough. Dumb things can happen when dummies act tough. And, no, it will not be in the Ukraine. The only hope for the Ukraine was for peace through strength. Epic loss... More likely Japan and South Korea going nuke within a week of getting pissed off enough. Who wants to count on American deterrence now...
Anyway, I think our biggest problem is that we have no design margin left on our Federal spending. Something soon will come up and we will not be able to act on it. I think the FED did a good job sustaining us for 5 years, the Treasury should have left well enough alone. But, nope. They blew it all in the first moments of Obama joining the circus.
Well,
What do wimps with muscle do when their manhood is questioned? They then act tough. Dumb things can happen when dummies act tough. And, no, it will not be in the Ukraine. The only hope for the Ukraine was for peace through strength. Epic loss... More likely Japan and South Korea going nuke within a week of getting pissed off enough. Who wants to count on American deterrence now...
Anyway, I think our biggest problem is that we have no design margin left on our Federal spending. Something soon will come up and we will not be able to act on it. I think the FED did a good job sustaining us for 5 years, the Treasury should have left well enough alone. But, nope. They blew it all in the first moments of Obama joining the circus.
global concerns fade to background, now what?
As the subject line implies; I have no idea; as I last posted - nobody will step in front of Russia, in any meaningful way, so the next thing is to fuggetaboutit; which is what has happened since.
So now what? Earnings season over, not bad, not great, certainly not supportive of the expanded multiple (north of 17 on the SPY), but hey, what else canyado?
I've been charting the smalls and bigs, and my pattern-leading theory for the S-fund isn't playing out. Instead, we see the S-fund undershooting the C-fund on the down days; 4/25; 5/8; and 5/14. The up days don't have S catching up, nor has C fund followed; at least yet.
I've done worse....sitting in the #250s rank for now. Don't feel all that froggy right now; perhaps the end of the month - or maybe even later.
As the subject line implies; I have no idea; as I last posted - nobody will step in front of Russia, in any meaningful way, so the next thing is to fuggetaboutit; which is what has happened since.
So now what? Earnings season over, not bad, not great, certainly not supportive of the expanded multiple (north of 17 on the SPY), but hey, what else canyado?
I've been charting the smalls and bigs, and my pattern-leading theory for the S-fund isn't playing out. Instead, we see the S-fund undershooting the C-fund on the down days; 4/25; 5/8; and 5/14. The up days don't have S catching up, nor has C fund followed; at least yet.
I've done worse....sitting in the #250s rank for now. Don't feel all that froggy right now; perhaps the end of the month - or maybe even later.
Dangerous complacency
Not a moonshot; but the 4 day string from 1,865 (or 980 in the S-fund) is broken - on low volume, and very low volatility; the newsfront has potential further QE by the ECB; but that's about all showing of interest.
I'm out for a few days at least; 10-yr note yields cresting a 1yr low so out of AGG as well - I'd like to see the S-fund test 980 again some time in June. Closing in on 3% for the year and staying in the 200-300 rank at least for today.
Not a moonshot; but the 4 day string from 1,865 (or 980 in the S-fund) is broken - on low volume, and very low volatility; the newsfront has potential further QE by the ECB; but that's about all showing of interest.
I'm out for a few days at least; 10-yr note yields cresting a 1yr low so out of AGG as well - I'd like to see the S-fund test 980 again some time in June. Closing in on 3% for the year and staying in the 200-300 rank at least for today.
one word: OVERBOUGHT
Just one word for this market - OVERBOUGHT - I expect the rally to continue up the ECB (expected to be further easing of interest rates there) and May jobs (who knows?) next week, then selling into the news - depending on what that news actually is.
Just one word for this market - OVERBOUGHT - I expect the rally to continue up the ECB (expected to be further easing of interest rates there) and May jobs (who knows?) next week, then selling into the news - depending on what that news actually is.
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: one word: OVERBOUGHT
More news...
Some more news...
Even more important news...
Amoeba,
The S&P500 has grown by over 200% since March of 2009. By trying to time the market and being exceptionally risk adverse you are up maybe 12%. Therefore, you are -190% over the past five years. Now, if one is risk adverse one might hold an allocation that gained 100% since March 2009. You would be even. And, if you held that same allocation through 2008 than you would be up maybe 80%. Not bad, eh.
But, there is some bureaucrat in China that is doing something.
Get away from the bureaucrats Amoeba. Run, don't walk. Businesses are in business to grow their business. Yup, sometimes they plop - but most of the time they succeed. And, you are not even allowed to bet on a single Enron. Have something in the market (at least 30%) so you can gain when the rapacious 1%ers greedily grind on their victims with better iPhones or whatever...:cheesy:
More news...
The San Diego Padres beat the Chicago White Sox yesterday 4 to 1.
Some more news...
Some people will have jobs in May, some will not. Some obsolete bureaucrat in Europe will do something, most will not
Even more important news...
The S&P 500 moved up 0.18% on Friday. The S&P 500 could drop 0.18% Monday. In either case I will swill a good beer and forget about it.
Amoeba,
The S&P500 has grown by over 200% since March of 2009. By trying to time the market and being exceptionally risk adverse you are up maybe 12%. Therefore, you are -190% over the past five years. Now, if one is risk adverse one might hold an allocation that gained 100% since March 2009. You would be even. And, if you held that same allocation through 2008 than you would be up maybe 80%. Not bad, eh.
But, there is some bureaucrat in China that is doing something.
Get away from the bureaucrats Amoeba. Run, don't walk. Businesses are in business to grow their business. Yup, sometimes they plop - but most of the time they succeed. And, you are not even allowed to bet on a single Enron. Have something in the market (at least 30%) so you can gain when the rapacious 1%ers greedily grind on their victims with better iPhones or whatever...:cheesy:
Job report and then what?
July was a good month - errr - last year: I have trader's block at the moment, unsure of the jobs report, and even less sure of how the market would react to a "beats" (faster taper?). As it is, there's still alot of excess cash, low volume, and low borrowing costs - so not much visible that might cause a (downward) reversal. I had an inkling to wade in this morning, but saw the open fade away with low-volume buying. Not sure what to make of the spread between the S- and C-funds. Other than the feeling that these will converge to each other at some point (as they have done the last 8-10 years).
I'm still here. Still ahead of the G-fund. Will choose my battles carefully.
July was a good month - errr - last year: I have trader's block at the moment, unsure of the jobs report, and even less sure of how the market would react to a "beats" (faster taper?). As it is, there's still alot of excess cash, low volume, and low borrowing costs - so not much visible that might cause a (downward) reversal. I had an inkling to wade in this morning, but saw the open fade away with low-volume buying. Not sure what to make of the spread between the S- and C-funds. Other than the feeling that these will converge to each other at some point (as they have done the last 8-10 years).
I'm still here. Still ahead of the G-fund. Will choose my battles carefully.
Confused low volume drifting
Very quiet trading - little to go on these days - creeping up the tracker treading water (~#345 today - 7/29/14), only 50 out of 700 of us are beating the G-fund this month - alot of red ink. Feeling a bit froggy with 2 IFT's to go unused this month.
Very quiet trading - little to go on these days - creeping up the tracker treading water (~#345 today - 7/29/14), only 50 out of 700 of us are beating the G-fund this month - alot of red ink. Feeling a bit froggy with 2 IFT's to go unused this month.
Jumping in on non-news Fed/jobs bet
I say there is nothing in the last few days but mild anxiety leading into the fed meeting and jobs report; won't have the fed minutes for a few weeks anyways. My bet is nobody will say or commit to anything or, better, the Fed will seize on some lame excuse to delay (or not accelerate) the taper. Like the drop in existing home sales. Or - just some vague statement about too much slack in unemployment picture or some such.
This could result in a bounce.....not much.....but if it's soon, I can cash out and wait for the real McCoy (can't call it a correction, because I don't believe it will reach 10+% this calender year) - but it could be 4-5% down sometime before September.
Either way - I expect to be on the sidelines soon again to wait for that (the drop) - and eat my lunch on the results.
My last move in June was pretty darn weak handed - hope this works out better.
Oh yeah - I'm predicting a significant MISS on the jobs number (so delayed taper?). Somewhere under 200K.
I say there is nothing in the last few days but mild anxiety leading into the fed meeting and jobs report; won't have the fed minutes for a few weeks anyways. My bet is nobody will say or commit to anything or, better, the Fed will seize on some lame excuse to delay (or not accelerate) the taper. Like the drop in existing home sales. Or - just some vague statement about too much slack in unemployment picture or some such.
This could result in a bounce.....not much.....but if it's soon, I can cash out and wait for the real McCoy (can't call it a correction, because I don't believe it will reach 10+% this calender year) - but it could be 4-5% down sometime before September.
Either way - I expect to be on the sidelines soon again to wait for that (the drop) - and eat my lunch on the results.
My last move in June was pretty darn weak handed - hope this works out better.
Oh yeah - I'm predicting a significant MISS on the jobs number (so delayed taper?). Somewhere under 200K.
burrocrat
Well-known member
As if anyone cares - this is why -----
I moved first into equities, and then out:
A mistake. There. I said it (and - unlike yo bama - I admit mine). I didn't see - and still don't - any catalyst for yesterday's drop (or today's followthrough). I felt the 25 pt drop in the SPY, and the 6/10 preceding negative days, was enough to make a large move on what I thought was moderate risk. And - I moved before the job report.
Unfortunately - selling began - first in Europe (perhaps contagion-based fears due to spanish bank failures), and spreading here in the morning - with futures down 30 points in the SPY pre-open. This appeared to settle in the mid-20-pt losses by the morning, and the question was whether the 50 EMA would be recaptured (1955 or so), or if it would turn lower. Too early to have that answer,I felt warranted to heed smarter advice - looked at what JTH was doing - and saw he had bailed the day prior to F. Good enough for me (wish I had seen that IFT before I made my first one, however). Today - I'm licking wounds - but healing to the tune of 0.4% rise in F-fund, vs. a 0.3% drop minimum in equities (C-fund), worse for I-fund.
August is typically a weak month (even last year). I'm going to sit - and look for a better opportunity for entry....it could be soon, if one of the indices can hold and build a base....or it could be much later - 3-4 weeks out or beyond.
In any case, fool's gold analogies aside, I'll be pulling close to even with the G-fund by COB (8/1/14). Out.
I moved first into equities, and then out:
A mistake. There. I said it (and - unlike yo bama - I admit mine). I didn't see - and still don't - any catalyst for yesterday's drop (or today's followthrough). I felt the 25 pt drop in the SPY, and the 6/10 preceding negative days, was enough to make a large move on what I thought was moderate risk. And - I moved before the job report.
Unfortunately - selling began - first in Europe (perhaps contagion-based fears due to spanish bank failures), and spreading here in the morning - with futures down 30 points in the SPY pre-open. This appeared to settle in the mid-20-pt losses by the morning, and the question was whether the 50 EMA would be recaptured (1955 or so), or if it would turn lower. Too early to have that answer,I felt warranted to heed smarter advice - looked at what JTH was doing - and saw he had bailed the day prior to F. Good enough for me (wish I had seen that IFT before I made my first one, however). Today - I'm licking wounds - but healing to the tune of 0.4% rise in F-fund, vs. a 0.3% drop minimum in equities (C-fund), worse for I-fund.
August is typically a weak month (even last year). I'm going to sit - and look for a better opportunity for entry....it could be soon, if one of the indices can hold and build a base....or it could be much later - 3-4 weeks out or beyond.
In any case, fool's gold analogies aside, I'll be pulling close to even with the G-fund by COB (8/1/14). Out.
F-fund share price not matching AGG again
If someone can explain yesterday (8/1/14) how AGG can rise .4% and F-fund shares rise only .2%, I'm all ears. I need that psychological boost of pulling even with the G-fund. woo hoo.
Thx....maybe it will factored in monday.
If someone can explain yesterday (8/1/14) how AGG can rise .4% and F-fund shares rise only .2%, I'm all ears. I need that psychological boost of pulling even with the G-fund. woo hoo.
Thx....maybe it will factored in monday.
JTH
Well-known member
Re: F-fund share price not matching AGG again
Bonds close before the markets do, therefore there is a bit carryover in price, sort of like how the I-Fund has a noon cutoff.
Bonds close before the markets do, therefore there is a bit carryover in price, sort of like how the I-Fund has a noon cutoff.
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