amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Trader's block

I have the subject disease; which may be a good thing if it keeps me from wading in on the top of a roller-coaster. No idea what the heck right now. C-fund is trending away from the S and I funds, but has the highest P/E.

I could see, and actually expect, a move of 10 percent from here to the end of year - but which direction is what I can't seem to predict.

 

[ssdave]

Re: Not frustrated - puzzled

I can see, and actually expect a gain of 4% for the rest of the year, with intermediate losses of 2 to 3% as volatility swings prices around.

I expect, and plan on using the volatility to insure that I get a gain of 4 % for the remainder of the year, regardless of whether the market actually ends up there. I actually like to see some volatility, it makes reasoned gains possible.

With a continuing resolution assurred until December, elections coming up, I don't see any news or policy drivers that should be pushing us down. But, there's always surprises.

dave

 

[amoeba]

famous last words "always surprises"

I can see, and actually expect a gain of 4% for the rest of the year, with intermediate losses of 2 to 3% as volatility swings prices around.

I expect, and plan on using the volatility to insure that I get a gain of 4 % for the remainder of the year, regardless of whether the market actually ends up there. I actually like to see some volatility, it makes reasoned gains possible.

With a continuing resolution assurred until December, elections coming up, I don't see any news or policy drivers that should be pushing us down. But, there's always surprises.

dave

You said it. Of course, I went all in yesterday - perfectly timing the second greatest point drop in the SPY; I also perfectly timed the first (July 31); and my total loss is something on the order of 4% for two trading days.

I know the market rebounded from the last one, sharply, and I missed that - - - but this time the 200 EMA was breached on the S-fund (and short of the 100 EMA on the SPY, which some saw as an intermediate bottom); so I predict further losses next week. I'm shaking my head.....just a little short of patience......this wasn't an impulsive move; I really thought the market would trade up and it did not.

 

[ssdave]

Re: Blind without a walking stick

Since I got in on the down day before the one day bounce, yesterdays action only puts me down about .7%. I'm content to sit in and wait for the recovery, knowing I came in pretty close to the bottom. I'm in no way tempted to panic and pull out now, wait for it to recover, and then buy in at a higher price than I'm invested in now. I try to look at longer term trends, not one or two day moves. Wait for a 2% gain, and when it looks like topping, get out and wait for the next round of volatility to produce a buy point, and start the cycle again.

dave

 

[amoeba]

I'll eat my lumps.

Since I got in on the down day before the one day bounce, yesterdays action only puts me down about .7%. I'm content to sit in and wait for the recovery, knowing I came in pretty close to the bottom. I'm in no way tempted to panic and pull out now, wait for it to recover, and then buy in at a higher price than I'm invested in now. I try to look at longer term trends, not one or two day moves. Wait for a 2% gain, and when it looks like topping, get out and wait for the next round of volatility to produce a buy point, and start the cycle again.

dave

And you think the longer term trend is what? (my opinion is possibly down with the S and I funds breaking their 200 EMAs, and a double top in the C). Wait for what 2% gain? (1972 + 38 = 2010 in the SPY)? That was hit once in history. And the future will tell when it will happen again. Could be next week, next year, or next decade.

I guess we're about half-way on the same page since we both made bone-headed all-in moves this week. I'll eat my lumps till next wednesday. Those rebounds you're hoping for don't necessarily happen in 3 biz days. The last dip went on for another week before hitting true bottom.

I'm not even sure equities will survive the lame dead-cat today. Next week is sure to be interesting.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: I'll eat my lumps.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47488.html

 

[ssdave]

Re: I'll eat my lumps.

And you think the longer term trend is what? (my opinion is possibly down with the S and I funds breaking their 200 EMAs, and a double top in the C). Wait for what 2% gain? (1972 + 38 = 2010 in the SPY)? That was hit once in history. And the future will tell when it will happen again. Could be next week, next year, or next decade.

I guess we're about half-way on the same page since we both made bone-headed all-in moves this week. I'll eat my lumps till next wednesday. Those rebounds you're hoping for don't necessarily happen in 3 biz days. The last dip went on for another week before hitting true bottom.

I'm not even sure equities will survive the lame dead-cat today. Next week is sure to be interesting.

I guess it's a matter of perspective: I don't see a move in this week as a bone-headed move; I expected the market to go down like it did yesterday but knew I would be unable to do anything as I was away. So, did the next best and got in about .7% above the low for the week. Key thing to me is that I believe that we're not at the begin of a large decline; we're just in the middle of some volatility.

Now, even if it goes lower next week, I'm still in at 2% lower than when i got out in August. I took gains at the high point, preserved capital through a dip, and bought in again at a lower price to take advantage of future gains. I have little doubt that I'll be able to recover that 2% in the next few days or weeks. And, if volatility continues, do it again once more by the end of the year.

Now, if we see a 10% or more decline and it looks like it is going to continue, I might get out to preserve capital, and then buy in again when it looks like the losses are stabilizing. What I try not to do is believe that every 1% drop is the beginning of the "big one". If you do that and get out on every minor dip, you lock in that loss, sidestep the opportunity to recover the loss, and positively avoid the opportunity to gain.

Now, if it does drop 30% as the big one hits, you'll be able to say "told you so"!

dave

 

[Boghie]

Re: I'll eat my lumps.

Good God guys...

We've lost 1.34% of our market value. If you cannot handle that kind of volatility than you should be in the G Fund. You would have made 0.04% this week in the G Fund.

However, the G Fund has provided you 1.72% growth for the year. What has the C Fund done? Uh, 8.97%. Making 2 points in a year will force you into a puppy fight over the slop in the dog bowl. My money is on the puppy though. Alpo is getting more expensive as the years go by and your dollars are getting more papery and less goldy. You have to be in to win - at least a little bit, eh...

 

[ssdave]

Re: I'll eat my lumps.

You have to be in to win - at least a little bit, eh...

Exactly. And, none of us are good enough to know when the win is coming, so we can just be in then. Therefore, to win, we have to be in a substantial amount of the time. To insure we're in to win, we have to hold through, and recover from, minor downturns. It's a losing strategy to go in for a day or two, hoping to catch a run up. That's gambling, not investing.

My bias is to be in as much as possible, and to go to G only when the market appears to be at an overbought peak, and to go back to C or S when they're oversold. When there's a lot of volatility, there's a chance to beat the market. In a steady bull market, this strategy will underperform a buy and holder. I'm 1% behind where I would be if I had held C all year. I'm ahead of holding S or a combination of CSI. If there's volatility into the fall, I hope to beat C by the end of the year.

Boghie, your strategy of a mix of the funds is a good one, and less of gambling than mine. I may go to that eventually, and just put everything in an L fund. I know I don't have enough time available in the middle of the workday to do IFT's when I need to. I often miss a move when I would have made it because I'm unavailable to track and move.

dave

 

[PessOptimist]

Please see if this changes the title back to amoeba. It is OK to change it for emphasis but it seems to go on.

 

[amoeba]

Up, Down, or sideways? (from now to end of year)

Please see if this changes the title back to amoeba. It is OK to change it for emphasis but it seems to go on.

But I love to change the title........there's alot more interest, for example, in this title question than in re: amoeba's account talk.

There's a few theories floating around out there about these recent bad days and sideways action, but no solid analyses so far - - - I sure don't have any. Everything's seems to be in the middle, no extremes in volumes, volatility, just some sort of unwinding. May end tomorrow, or continue for another month. I think we have a job number coming up, so maybe 200+K?

 

[amoeba]

Re: Up, Down, or sideways? (from now to end of year)

And there you have it.....more than one someone appears to know something - - - and whatever it is - - - it ain't good for the markets. Probably has to do with a "beats" on the job number this friday, and speculation for Fed to back off QE more aggressively. I cashed in on my small F-fund position today in advance of the divident - - - 0.4% was just too good to pass up. I intend to sit on my hands for a bit here until this latest VIX spike peaks out and then make another move.

 

[amoeba]

Cracked #550 on the tracker!

Maybe not Dom Perignon, but perhaps a PBR is in order:

Next stop for the C-fund appears to be the midpoint between the 100 and 200 EMAs; which has not been breached this calender year; or around 1,930. Anyone willing to suck it up, could probably safely predict no lower than 10% from the peak, or around 1,800; picking an entry (or re-entry) position is the question.

I'm still thinking an end-of-year close around 1,950 with considerable volatility before then.

 

[amoeba]

Open the bay doors, HAL.

I'm still thinking an end-of-year close around 1,950 with considerable volatility before then.

Did I say that last week? What was I thinking (epidemic shorting, perhaps)? Still not too much of a break.....I'd like to a steeper and longer trough develop.......I've had quite the run of impatience recently.......will try not to string three bell-ringing IFT's together this time.....almost went in yesterday; glad I didn't.

Out.

 

[ssdave]

Re: Open the bay doors, HAL.

Well, if I wasn't already in, I'd certainly be looking at this as an opportunity. Maybe squeeze a bit more out if you wait, but might miss the elevator up too. But, if you get in, will have to stick it out and not bail to take advantage, the ride up will come sudden and leave the crowd waiting to get in.

Starting to sound like Birchtree, I think I'll just stop now!

dave

 

[amoeba]

I'm afraid I can't do that, Dave, and neither can you

Well, if I wasn't already in, I'd certainly be looking at this as an opportunity. Maybe squeeze a bit more out if you wait, but might miss the elevator up too. But, if you get in, will have to stick it out and not bail to take advantage, the ride up will come sudden and leave the crowd waiting to get in.

Starting to sound like Birchtree, I think I'll just stop now!

dave

That's because, since I bailed at 1,968, the market has peed away another 3%. Sure - I got some dirty shorts for it - but I ain't swimmin in no red ink. This is seriously only a 4% drop from the peak; the market could easily move up or down 5% next week. Let's see if the volatility can settle a bit before we talk about trying to predict an up day when there are only 3 in 10 and the short term trend is down in a (still) decidely overbought market. Tomorrow is a trading day before a holiday; and many of these - well - until recently, had been up-days. We'll see about this one.

My gut says go short over the weekend.

 

[nnuut]

Re: I'm afraid I can't do that, Dave, and neither can you

That's me all over SHORT!

 

[amoeba]

Prediction for 10/14, 2014 - a gray tuesday

Ummm: A washout upcommeth; this is a really huge Friday - over 120 million SPY by noon; resistence at 1,930. Eerily reminiscent of January 31, which weakened on high volume, and was followed by bloodletting the following monday.

So I think the range here for COB 10/14/14 is somewhere on the order of 1,860 - 1,950; hence, downside risk going long over the weekend is somewhat greater than upside. However, there is some profit-taking in bonds, which may be taking cash to invest next week, sooooooooo, it's a judgement call.

Hence. Nay on my second IFT right now. Ain't feelin like I missed out.....yet.

Seeya next week.

 

[amoeba]

Who put the bleach in the wash(out)!!!

Ummm: A washout upcommeth; this is a really huge Friday - over 120 million SPY by noon; resistence at 1,930. Eerily reminiscent of January 31, which weakened on high volume, and was followed by bloodletting the following monday.

So I think the range here for COB 10/14/14 is somewhere on the order of 1,860 - 1,950; hence, downside risk going long over the weekend is somewhat greater than upside. However, there is some profit-taking in bonds, which may be taking cash to invest next week, sooooooooo, it's a judgement call.

Hence. Nay on my second IFT right now. Ain't feelin like I missed out.....yet.

Seeya next week.

Hey - - - - who put the bleach in the wash? (I watch, see the market approach my downside number on tuesday, wednesday pulls even, so I put in 25% (losing confidence), thinking I would pull some coin and what, you say? another 2% plus down? Actually, my goal was to make an IFT where the market DID NOT DROP AT LEAST 30 PTS IN THE S&P THE VERY NEXT DAY).

I guess I'll be joining most of you guys in dreaded negatory today. Screw this. I'm bailing. I'll make a few more IFT's for posterity but this market is so severely overbought with a trailing PE of 17 in the SPY that it could go another 100 pts in a heartbeat (to 1,750). 8/10 trading days down, and not becoming more common.

 

[amoeba]

When a <1% loss feels like a gain.....

.....one of two things are happening:

a) the market has reached bottom; or

b) the market is changing from bull to bear.


Yesterday, the S- and F- funds trimmed my loss; but the real test here will come at such time when (if) there is a positive turn....last time.....and we're talking a week ago, that 1.75% increase was a one-day pony followed by extremely heavy selling.

The Fed speak has started; well, from one very dovish member; but I don't hear anything else (about more QE). Especially from Europe. So if there is an intermediate rally, it may not last very long.

Very tough call for the rest of this month.