amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Downdraft - what caused it and what will stop it?

The subject questions beat the heck out of me:

I see no catalyst, no warning, no data, nothing at all - market starts bouncing around like a pinball when it hasn't done so in what seems like a couple years. What on earth? The dead cat is just that, today, dead.

No holiday or friday low volume to save this one; the week is young. Both the I- and now the S-fund 20 EMAs have breached their 50EMAs; so will the C-fund follow them down? (I suspect it will, but I'm often wrong, sooooo.......).

Fed minutes due 8/20/14; might sit those out.; quite a few trading days before then.

Still hoping on the intermediate goal of besting the G-fund this month; another 0.18% to go.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: Downdraft - what caused it and what will stop it?

The subject questions beat the heck out of me:

I see no catalyst, no warning, no data, nothing at all - market starts bouncing around like a pinball when it hasn't done so in what seems like a couple years. What on earth? The dead cat is just that, today, dead.

No holiday or friday low volume to save this one; the week is young. Both the I- and now the S-fund 20 EMAs have breached their 50EMAs; so will the C-fund follow them down? (I suspect it will, but I'm often wrong, sooooo.......).

Fed minutes due 8/20/14; might sit those out.; quite a few trading days before then.

Still hoping on the intermediate goal of besting the G-fund this month; another 0.18% to go.

have you tried trading on sentiment? that's what i do. you can explain any trade based on how you intepret current sentiment, so basically the field is wide open.

 

[Mapper]

Re: Downdraft - what caused it and what will stop it?

The subject questions beat the heck out of me:

I see no catalyst, no warning, no data, nothing at all - market starts bouncing around like a pinball when it hasn't done so in what seems like a couple years. What on earth? The dead cat is just that, today, dead.

No holiday or friday low volume to save this one; the week is young. Both the I- and now the S-fund 20 EMAs have breached their 50EMAs; so will the C-fund follow them down? (I suspect it will, but I'm often wrong, sooooo.......).

Fed minutes due 8/20/14; might sit those out.; quite a few trading days before then.

Still hoping on the intermediate goal of besting the G-fund this month; another 0.18% to go.

No warning? For real? Tom and others have been talking about warning signs, cracks and breakdowns in the leaders (small caps and transports) for literally weeks. Even so far as saying..."if we move down we can't say we didn't have warning signs" at a couple points. Also, market is bouncing less than it did earlier in the year AND last October. We've only lost a couple percent. Don't let the talking heads and noise get you worked up....keep cool, look at the big picture.

 

[amoeba]

No told ya so's on this one....nobody knew jack

No warning? For real? Tom and others have been talking about warning signs, cracks and breakdowns in the leaders (small caps and transports) for literally weeks. Even so far as saying..."if we move down we can't say we didn't have warning signs" at a couple points. Also, market is bouncing less than it did earlier in the year AND last October. We've only lost a couple percent. Don't let the talking heads and noise get you worked up....keep cool, look at the big picture.

Yes, for real. There had been literally nothing solid - and honestly - after the fact, no explanation to factor(s). Nobody saw that 2% drop - it hasn't happened in 18+ months, in prior dips were not of that type recently. I dunno what Tom said on his preferred talk, but no, his daily notes were cautious either way.

The big picture - as you say - is the market is extremely overbought and has been for several years; 17 P/E for the SPY? get real. where would common sense say that is going to go from here? (not that anybody uses common sense).

Honestly, no one saw this (me, you, tom, "others"). As for the talking heads - some of which have invented the 100EMA as a floor and it's going to bounce from here, yes, I don't believe them (100EMA is meaningless, never used). Most of them are trying to hype there way out of a long position.....the real money is waiting for lower (not more than 1,850-1,900 in the SPY, with the highest possible correction territory considerably below that, i.e., 90% x 1,980 = 1,782).

 

[JTH]

Re: No told ya so's on this one....nobody knew jack

Honestly, no one saw this (me, you, tom, "others"). As for the talking heads - some of which have invented the 100EMA as a floor and it's going to bounce from here, yes, I don't believe them (100EMA is meaningless, never used). Most of them are trying to hype there way out of a long position.....the real money is waiting for lower (not more than 1,850-1,900 in the SPY, with the highest possible correction territory considerably below that, i.e., 90% x 1,980 = 1,782).

Speak for yourself, my thread is scattered with the realities of these market conditions, the top in the small caps was put in on July 1st, the Transports on July 23rd, the signs have been there, these markets have been screaming caution to anyone who would listen...

07-30-2014

IFT EoB Today F-Fund

07-24-2014

Just for the record, market wise, I've been in a fairly pissy & disgusted mood this month (more so than usual)

There isn't a whole lot TSP folks can do under these conditions to outperform the markets. Low-Volatility-Trickle-Up followed with High-Volatility-Surge-Down is difficult to play, especially if your IFT is just slightly off and you end up losing 5 days of gains in 1 day. Like it or not, this is the market we a dealing with, there will be no shortage of folks calling for a correction, when it does happen, more folks will be caught in it than not.

I have no desire to be in this market, that lack of desire is only outweighed by my lack of desire to take a loss.

07-23-2014

Transports are overbought both within the 125-day channel and the bollinger bands, the hourly has formed a middle-finger-formation, I would expect a pullback from here, which should fare significantly worse for the small caps.

Long story short, this market is lethargic, when the indexes are not in agreement, it should be seen as a warning sign, this is classic summertime action.

07-16-2014

I usually have a mental 3% circuit breaker, I'm already down -2.05% and this was after the 3-day gain from the beginning of the month. Transports are overbought, ripe for a pullback, SPX is equalized & flat, while the W4500 is oversold and embedded. From my perspective, this isn't a good time to be in the markets, I honestly don't know what these markets will do, my gut instinct is telling me to get out now.

 

[Mapper]

Re: No told ya so's on this one....nobody knew jack

Yes, for real. There had been literally nothing solid - and honestly - after the fact, no explanation to factor(s). Nobody saw that 2% drop - it hasn't happened in 18+ months, in prior dips were not of that type recently. I dunno what Tom said on his preferred talk, but no, his daily notes were cautious either way.

The big picture - as you say - is the market is extremely overbought and has been for several years; 17 P/E for the SPY? get real. where would common sense say that is going to go from here? (not that anybody uses common sense).

Honestly, no one saw this (me, you, tom, "others"). As for the talking heads - some of which have invented the 100EMA as a floor and it's going to bounce from here, yes, I don't believe them (100EMA is meaningless, never used). Most of them are trying to hype there way out of a long position.....the real money is waiting for lower (not more than 1,850-1,900 in the SPY, with the highest possible correction territory considerably below that, i.e., 90% x 1,980 = 1,782).

I know I'm not someone folks generally listen to...but I did make the following comments in July:

7/17

Time to start looking for "wallflowers"

A Day, or many, like this have been a long time coming. Even Birch recently commented about the looming correction. Will know in the coming days if the time has come, but seems to be a perfect storm of small news crises to take the "blame". Been holding my TZA positions for way tooo long, maybe soon I can start unloading them and look for some nice bargain prices.

7/18

TSP:
taking some off the table, going 50G 20F 10C 10S 10I

Keep hearing that yesterday was a 1-off news driven event. That may well be true, but also seems like a ripe opportunity to "pull the rug" from under folks. Moreover, I'm on vacation with very limited computer access until the 29th...so I figured I'd protect my assets a bit while off grid. Mainly anticipating the probability of a lower price for buying back in when I return.

7/31 to which Khotso responded "Yep" while highlighting the sentence referencing 2011

TSP:
Planning a move to safety. Warning signs are flashing yet folks choose to ignore. This reminds me of what was happening late summer 2011

COB today I'll be:
65G 35F

I don't claim to know the future or think anyone should follow me, but the comments I made were, in many ways, based on things folks on this board were talking about...So I guess that's why I didn't feel like this was a blindside. In fact, my reaction was along the lines of...about time. We don't know if we're there yet, but even Birchtree made comments on the coming "correction".

 

[Mapper]

Re: No told ya so's on this one....nobody knew jack

But I guess can't I argue with your point about "nothing solid". Nothing is ever solid, no one ever knows, solidly, what will happen next.

Edit: added "can't" I can't argue that point.

 

[amoeba]

Predicting big daily downward moves - oh - if it were only true....

As much as I have full respect for JTH and mapper (heck, I moved to F for that sole reason), the threads of caution do not so much as HINT at the sharp daily reversal out of a clear blue sky. Yes - a drop or even a correction over time - but 40 points taken off the SPY in one day? you were thinking that? doesn't reflect in those quoted posts -

The lack of reasoning ("it is due" is not a reason) in itself is pause more for confusion than caution.

As if my crystal ball wasn't black before, it is shining like a mirror - reflecting my puzzled look back at me.

The next question is to guess what would happen if there IS news (economic, other) that would support a move?

Mine would be a mere 60pt SPY daily move (couldn't say which direction).

 

[JTH]

Re: Predicting big daily downward moves - oh - if it were only true....

As much as I have full respect for JTH and mapper (heck, I moved to F for that sole reason), the threads of caution do not so much as HINT at the sharp daily reversal out of a clear blue sky. Yes - a drop or even a correction over time - but 40 points taken off the SPY in one day? you were thinking that? doesn't reflect in those quoted posts -

The lack of reasoning ("it is due" is not a reason) in itself is pause more for confusion than caution.

As if my crystal ball wasn't black before, it is shining like a mirror - reflecting my puzzled look back at me.

The next question is to guess what would happen if there IS news (economic, other) that would support a move?

Mine would be a mere 60pt SPY daily move (couldn't say which direction).

I understand you are venting your frustrations, there is not one person here who can accurately predict the markets 100% of the time, but what each of us can do, is accept what the markets do, and act accordingly. I am at peace with the price action because I accept that it doesn't matter what I think, only what I do. Cut off your emotion chip, filter out the bias, the only thing we need is price, volume and time, everything else is fluff.

Once again I will offer you a 1-month subscription to a PS, perhaps IT will give us an introductory discount?

 

[amoeba]

Not frustrated - puzzled

This is big money volume pushing and keeping those indices down - as if someone knew, knows, (or thought they did), something - sovereign wealth funds, program trades, inside info, or something else. These kinds of drops have occurred - but typically we have at least a solid theory, or post mortem, explanation.

Not yet for this one....that alone has me thinking the drop (although well below the 50EMAs) won't last much longer -- -but here we are still there 5 days later.

I guess we shall all stay tuned. Cheers to looking up at the G-fund; haven't said that in awhile.

 

[Bquat]

Re: F-fund share price not matching AGG again

Try this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnJkBgaMg3Q&list=UU_ywfvIR2JrnMuZt33y7QYQ

 

[amoeba]

Blind without a walking stick

This is big money volume pushing and keeping those indices down - as if someone knew, knows, (or thought they did), something - sovereign wealth funds, program trades, inside info, or something else. These kinds of drops have occurred - but typically we have at least a solid theory, or post mortem, explanation.

Not yet for this one....that alone has me thinking the drop (although well below the 50EMAs) won't last much longer -- -but here we are still there 5 days later.

I guess we shall all stay tuned. Cheers to looking up at the G-fund; haven't said that in awhile.

did I say that? too bad I didn't trade on my instinct.....but that's understandable if anyone has followed how I clobbered myself in the tracker to the tune of -1.5% in my last two dips into the pool since late April.

The recent IFT's are biased towards profit-taking or at least staying short over the weekend. I feel blind without a walking stick. No idea in the short, medium, or long term from here.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Blind without a walking stick

Use your nose and smell the superlative bull manure - that's the best guidance.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Blind without a walking stick

Wow, a 2% crash.
Another 20 of those and you are back in 2008...
Now, wait a minute. I predicted a little downturn - just like you...

But, today I was wrong.
Dammit...

But, since I don't have 100% confidence in my superior abilities to understand FedSpeak or comprehend an Italian bureaucrat talking about the lack of mistresses in the office pool or in the newsletter my drunk brother sends me I still have a decent chunk in the market. Made thousands today. And, I was wrong. I got to have more confidence in the rapacious greedsters in the 1%. They will see me to the 1%

 

[amoeba]

Tough call week ahead

I'm thinking the 50EMAs might be attacked this week (i.e., at least a couple more up days):

But I'm a weak hand.....until 2/3 of our funds can hold a couple days above the 50EMAs, I'm hesitant. That's all. Not many early IFTs this weekend...

 

[amoeba]

struggling, crawling back

I'm struggling to crawl back to the near 3% I had accumulated by mid-April, only to **** it away in two bad IFTs. I've recovered 2/3 of the last loss in F-fund, and I'm sticking to my guns over the weekend....my gut feeling is the equities are at a near-term top-out.....and won't crest near the year-to-date highs.

So - I'll look for another buying opportunity.....unlike last time....I'll wait for the dip instead of impatiently wading in ahead of it. Fool me twice, shame on me.

 

[amoeba]

screwed up my tracker returns

I'm struggling to crawl back to the near 3% I had accumulated by mid-April, only to **** it away in two bad IFTs. I've recovered 2/3 of the last loss in F-fund, and I'm sticking to my guns over the weekend....my gut feeling is the equities are at a near-term top-out.....and won't crest near the year-to-date highs.

So - I'll look for another buying opportunity.....unlike last time....I'll wait for the dip instead of impatiently wading in ahead of it. Fool me twice, shame on me.

As if anyone cares, I didn't really bail on thursday - I was just early in entering my IFT for friday and forgot about the 9:10 cutoff, and entered it at 9:09:35 (25 seconds early for tsptalk); I actually put it in after the tsp cutoff (but before the tsptalk cutoff). So I broke even and am at a whopping 1.83% for the year (not a mere 1.70%). Not gonna ask the moderator to correct it at this point..... I will just keep track myself.


I want to see how the post-weekend trade stacks up; last time the market topped out at this level - it paused and took a dive; these dives have typically been widely spaced, this year, at least for the leading C-fund. I was just a little impatient last time; then didn't pull the trigger on the rebound.....right now, it looks like an aweful entry point for equities.....but that's for the sum of all traders to decide....not me.

Still looking down at the G-fund, but barely. More than a bit confused still.

 

[Birchtree]

Please don't be disappointed - we all care. We want you to be a winner.

 

[amoeba]

Itchy finger

I'm feeling the same itch to go in again; that I felt last month and got a body slam the next day; so this time I'll try some patience. The last drop was a late week thing - I believe a thursday; and fridays have been least volatile - perhaps except for today (9/12/14). I had been looking at the 1,030 level in the S-fund to go back in - and it is almost there but not quite; similarly - the C-fund intraday lows have been flat (not trending lower) this week. There's some international news - etc. - regarding ISIS; but it could be much worse (e.g. domestic terror act here).

Altogether a mixed bag.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Itchy finger

Eh...

This thing looks ugly. I like ugly because I can meetup with them easier in the bars, but with my money... If fact, with just an event or two that ugly thang boozin it up at the end of the bar might just be a Black Swan. Yuk...