amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Re: I'll eat my lumps.

Very uncertain: Still losing money this month.......but not anywhere near as much as if I would have stayed in at my kamikaze move into equities at 1998 on 9/30 (bailing at 1968 on 10/1, into F for a day). I didn't see F-fund picking up so much this month, and still scratching my head on it since QE is going to zero at the end of October (or is it?). So I'm an observer right now, out of IFTs, and waiting to see what happens next week.

I would be very surprised to see much bounce on earnings. Those results are fairly well known and beats are expected on most of them (like Apple). This won't be news. Some of the fluff bigs is being shaken out or will be soon (e.g., NFLX, AMZN) but OTOH the market is still temporarily oversold short term - today's relief was not large or on extremely heavy volume.

Hence, I see monday as volatile, but closing relatively flat and, therefore, confusing. Tuesday I think will be another leg down but not below this weeks lowest levels. Can't think beyond that.

 

[ssdave]

Well, you're a lot better on this past two weeks than I am. I'm down about 5%, the only good thing is that I'm in if we get any kind of a rebound!

Now's the time to say "I told you so"!

But, I think I have the patience to wait.

dave

 

[amoeba]

Without your space helmet, you will find that rather difficult, Dave

Well, you're a lot better on this past two weeks than I am. I'm down about 5%, the only good thing is that I'm in if we get any kind of a rebound!

Now's the time to say "I told you so"!

But, I think I have the patience to wait.

dave

I'm not telling you so......I think you have at least 50:50 of getting another +3% before the end of month. However, I really do believe there is an incredible number of "hopers" out there, thinking the Fed will delay the end to QE. If that get's extended, yet again, indefinitely - then you are looking at getting everything back and then some.

OTOH - if the QE coffin is truely nailed shut and buried in dirt; I couldn't tell you where the bottom of the impact crater would be.

2001: A Space Odyssey #3 Movie CLIP - Hal 9000 (1968) HD - YouTube

 

[amoeba]

closing in on 1% for the year

Made a late two-time move 60% into C/S; seems to be paying off so far........I plan to wait this out till post-turkey day; I have a feeling that some of this is post-election hoopla buying only mentality; and there aren't even mildly foreseeable dips in the near term....unless of course....everyone realizes that stocks are as grossly overpriced as they ever have been, and there's some panic selling. I just don't see that happening (again, it did twice already) before the bird is served and maybe not even after.

Looking back - I was near 3% in mid-June; a few overstated, and ill-timed, moves, set me back.

 

[ssdave]

Re: closing in on 1% for the year

I recovered my -5% and then made my 3% and got out just when you were getting in. We're moving in opposites of each other.

I think your plan to stay in until at least after Thanksgiving is good, as long as you have the patience to wait. Might see a dip between now and then, but should recover quickly; if a person tries to get out on the dip, will miss the recovery too.

I'm actually hoping for a bit of a dip, I've got a goal written in for both C and S in my tracking spreadsheet, if we reach there, I'll jump back in. If not, I'll probably sidestep 1 to 1 1/2% profit before I give up and buy again.

Good Luck!
dave

 

[Boghie]

Almost to Inflation!!!

Amoeba,

You have almost reached the inflation adjustment for 2014!!! Since November 7 your account has grown by almost 1% - more than doubling the previous ten months. Glory Be!!!

But today you are bailing out of equities just as the most statistically beneficial time of the year is kicking in. I am confused. What are you seeing...

 

[amoeba]

Re: Almost to Inflation!!!

Amoeba,

You have almost reached the inflation adjustment for 2014!!! Since November 7 your account has grown by almost 1% - more than doubling the previous ten months. Glory Be!!!

But today you are bailing out of equities just as the most statistically beneficial time of the year is kicking in. I am confused. What are you seeing...

I see nothing, just seasonality, and the two days after thanksgiving friday are typically the worst. The bail before friday's dip was nothing more than impluse luck - there appears to have been selling - maybe program selling - linked to oil prices. Going to wait a short time and evaluate to see what happens from here. I have no prediction.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Almost to Inflation!!!

I am still seeing nothing:

There are a few, small scenarios in which I could have cut and run with some profits this month; but overall indices remain short-term range bound. I suppose I will look for a seasonal entry point somewhere around the third week this month.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Almost to Inflation!!!

I thought about changing Boghie's inflation title, but I'm not there - so I'll let it scold me a bit more:

In the meantime, red numbers for everything but G fund so far this month. Unless I see an earlier signal, my tentative re-entry will be either 12/19 or 12/22.

 

[amoeba]

Re: amoeba's account talk

Well well well:

Looks like we have some grinching going on this year; still a fairly shallow dip (<5% from the SPY peak) on moderately-high (but not heavy) volume. It is hard for me to call this a bottom so I will wait some more.

There's still a chance of a holiday rally, but it's not a given.

 

[amoeba]

Re: amoeba's account talk

Just so people know how far out in space I am:

I am tentatively seeing this latest decline bottoming out in the range of 1,870-1,920 for the S&P; and I mean somewhere between December 29, 2014 to January 9, 2015; and there will also be a few positive days just before Christmas. Might be enough to trade on, might not.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: amoeba's account talk

Worry, in fact, has played a prominent role throughout the bull market that started in the depths of the financial crisis - thanx.

 

[amoeba]

Re: amoeba's account talk

Interesting spike in mid-day volume; I suspect a rumor (or leak) on the Fed minutes/rate decision tomorrow regarding the language; haven't seen this in awhile but it isn't unique - if the rumor isn't founded on something more than sheer speculation (which is all we should have until the minutes are released), expect a sell-off by the close; my guess is up 0.5% today - won't challenge 2025, which could leave some room for pre-holiday rally.

 

[amoeba]

Re: amoeba's account talk

Looks like a combination of false rumors and program trading (round numbers, 6.9 million SPY at 2020; another couple million at 2000 in late afternoon). A whole bunch of lost money on whoever was doing the selling. Uber-bigs like AAPL got hammered. Unless conditions change - I'm seeing increased volume selling through the end of this week.

 

[amoeba]

Re: amoeba's account talk

mid-week dip evaporated in lieu of an early santa rally; shaping up to challenge all-time high in the SPY, and crest the 50 EMA in the EFA. Whether this can continue to some psychological point, like 2,100 in the SPY, or re-challenge 2,025 (most likely after Christmas) remains to be seen. On a side note, I am trending towards beating the G-fund for the first time in at least 2 years; launching myself into the mid-600s rank on the tracker. Yay.

 

[amoeba]

Re: amoeba's account talk

Website is slow so I haven't looked at the recent IFT's to see if our leaders are moving yet; I suspect not:

Seems like we're settling into the low volume drift up during holidays; except for F and I today; some unusual volume in AGG - not sure what is up with that, but it held me back abit. Otherwise, I'm not seeing much to act at the moment.

Have a merry one.

 

[amoeba]

Re: amoeba's account talk

As if anyone reads my account talk anymore:

The ones that did noticed I have been wading out of equities; the Santa rally was almost a pre-holiday rally, similar to the one that preceded Turkey day; those who recall that one - and I do - remember that the selling started on first post-holiday trading day and continued for another ~7-8 sessions before the sharp bottom on 12/17/14. I am seeing the same set up here, if not more so with C- and S- funds breaking north of their channels.

Market timer felixthecat, one of the annual and this month's return leader, locked in another gain with one day in F-fund. Uptrend, who has a more consistent build this year, is looking for a couple more weeks and predicting something around 2,350 before a dip of 500 points. That would be something if that is correct. We shall see.

I plan to settle this year north of 3%, most of it in the last quarter; well - not really - I was approaching 3% earlier this year before losing nearly all of it on what are the worst-timed moves in my memory. Pardon me for being a bit shy thereafter - had I been more assertive on my more recent IFT's, my returns could have been doubled-tripled.

Another way to look at it is that my meager returns this year is that they are 150X my 2013 return (0.02%).

 

[amoeba]

Re: amoeba's account talk

Looks like the ^VIX settled right on its 20 EMA; the last 3 times it crested above the 20 EMA (and five out of the last 8) - it signaled a significant dip thereafter; but you had to be watching closely and have your finger on the button to react to it and 2 out of 3 chances isn't a sure thing. ^VIX spikes do not usually come this close together (within a few weeks) - so this is a hard one to interpret but I had been watching it drift up the last few days.

 

[amoeba]

Re: amoeba's account talk

Talk about a turd in the punchbowl:

What the heck happened at 12 noon PST today (12/31/14)? Did everyone sell, buy shorts, and go home early (this is supposed to be a full trading day, not like Xmas eve)? In any case, the ^VIX looks to settle above its 20 EMA; which - per my last post - has been a good predictor of subsequent dips. It's starting to look like the 12/16/14 sharp bottom was an unfinished symphony, interrupted by holiday seasonality. Wouldn't it be something if the 12/16 lows were rechallenged so soon? We'll know better in another week as normal volume returns. I won't be re-capturing the 3% annual return this year, but close to it as I limited further losses by averaging down and out earlier this week.

Anything can still happen, even in the last hour of today's trading. Happy new year.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: amoeba's account talk

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article48819.html

"Don't worry so much about where stocks have been - don't drive by looking in the rear view mirror. Instead look ahead."