amoeba's Account Talk

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Re: amoeba's account talk

Looks like another sucker's rally; volatility remains very high even on this up-day - so I'm not a believer:

I already tripled down into one of these blips; and got creamed. Need to get those averages above their 20 EMAs. Dunno how this will unfold next week. I have no prediction.
 
Re: amoeba's account talk

Oh my God...
The 'C Fund' is down 1.84%...
I am devastated. I will be eating Alpo...
One cannot recover from a 1.84% loss... Impossible!!!
How the heck can one churn his account 6 times in a month that has done nothing.
 
Market is tightrope walking:

50 EMA (almost) recaptured; volatility creeping down; second consecutive up-day (well sort of); wait-a-minute! didn't we go through that January 7-8 when I got sucked in? Looks like the I-fund may be leading right now....will see if that continues. I am averaging up this month (<1%).
 
Still try to figure out the sustained creep up in volatility; sawtooth pattern with sharp peaks now as well as valleys has me bamboozled:

SPY 50 EMA crested for a second straight day; whether I-fund is the place to be will take longer to shake out....

In the mean time, 900+ out of ~1,000 of us in the non-premium tracker are in a range of +1 to -1%; so there isn't a pack breaking out yet.
 
Two things to report today:

1. Significant breakout in AGG (F-fund); let's see someone call this noise;

2. Volatility pattern seems to now be in a fundamental shift; breaking below the 20EMA, seems to no longer be a buy signal in equities; rather, as the last three instances indicate (December 19, 2014; January 8 21, 2015) - you get pulled into a few days of sucker rallying, before the next downdraft with successively lower highs.

As if I'm bad enough, this is going to make it even more difficult for our tracker leaders; I believe. Moreover, with the 50EMA poised to cross under the 20EMA in the SPY, this may be part of a longer term move.

Or maybe not.
 
Well shoot:

Selling volume picking up today (1/29/15); if the sawtooth pattern holds - there should be a reversal up to around 2,025-2,040 in the SPY in the next couple days. Divergence of EFA and SPY continues. A tough month - as was Jan 2014.
 
amoeba said:
Well shoot:

Selling volume picking up today (1/29/15); if the sawtooth pattern holds - there should be a reversal up to around 2,025-2,040 in the SPY in the next couple days. Divergence of EFA and SPY continues. A tough month - as was Jan 2014.
Click to expand...

If it jumps up 2% between this afternoon and tomorrow, that would be even better!!!
 
amoeba said:
Still try to figure out the sustained creep up in volatility; sawtooth pattern with sharp peaks now as well as valleys has me bamboozled:

SPY 50 EMA crested for a second straight day; whether I-fund is the place to be will take longer to shake out....

In the mean time, 900+ out of ~1,000 of us in the non-premium tracker are in a range of +1 to -1%; so there isn't a pack breaking out yet.
Click to expand...

Good observation. No doubt, the 50 DMA of the VIX has risen steadily since last August. What was a nominal 12, is now a nominal 16.77, and rising.

Fasten your seatbelts. We're no longer flying the friendly skies. This aging bull is bucking quite a bit.
 
pmaloney said:
Good call on the reversal! I went to the dentist and missed the fun but saw the close. Hoping for more upside!:)
Click to expand...

Then again, tomorrow was another day. GDP was not where I thought it would be, but the market moved strongly down, late, and on big volume. Broke my "streak" of 2 months of +1% or better. Underbought F-fund by getting greedy at just the wrong time; couldn't recover. Odd no-taker end of month friday this (1/30/15); the tracker shows 1 of the top 40 in any equity fund at all.

Dang it! Where are those sweet jumps?
 
I really have no clue what will happen tomorrow (2/3/15); ^VIX just seems to build and build, it's been awhile since it was near its 200EMA (15.4), and that was a single day; I get this sense that it will either break strongly up (25+) or down (15-) some time soon. I pick the former - together with a crack in resistence (close below SPY 1,990; 1,030 in S-fund) some time this month.

Could go either way; very tough trading.
 
I swore to average in two IFT's no closer than 5 biz days apart, so I could see if there was any new pattern; I noted the ^VIX has now heald 5/6 days below its 200 EMA, while matching the December 8 low (prior to the 3-month spike), as confirmation. This has the appearance (and effect) of "chasing"; but hopefully this won't have the same consequences to my balance as it did in January, when I got pounded after tripling down on a first day after a VIX spike down - only to see it see-saw for 3 weeks.

Depending on share price, I may be close to pulling even with the G-fund after today (2/20/15). Could be worse, but there's clearly room for improvement.
 
I'm surprised by the fast rebound in energy prices the last few weeks; wonder if it will continue at this rate. I have overtaken the G-fund for the moment.
 
What I'm seeing is ^VIX >20EMA, which, over the past 2 years, has been superceded by a greater ^VIX of at least 30%; it can take as little as 2 days to peak or as much as 3 weeks. Hence, I will not buy back in (IFT) today.

I'm not doing so well this month; will not lose as much as the C-fund (if current prices hold today); but not well. This isn't advice for anyone - as if history indicates I'm not the one who should be listened to or followed.

I try.
 
amoeba said:
What I'm seeing is ^VIX >20EMA, which, over the past 2 years, has been superceded by a greater ^VIX of at least 30%; it can take as little as 2 days to peak or as much as 3 weeks. Hence, I will not buy back in (IFT) today.

I'm not doing so well this month; will not lose as much as the C-fund (if current prices hold today); but not well. This isn't advice for anyone - as if history indicates I'm not the one who should be listened to or followed.

I try.
Click to expand...

I agree....things are not setting up to give me a warm fuzzy about the markets going up. As much as I would like to buy this dip I am not confident enough to do it. Staying G for another day at least.
 
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