I made a couple messy IFT's this month, avoiding some large down days but missing some up days; I'm NOT confident of the seasonal bias for the last week of May this year because of the latest CPI number which shows inflation consistent with a pending interest rate increase. Doesn't mean a rate rise will happen, even if it should, soon. I think there will be growing expectations of a rate rise, and we could see a couple moderately down to flat weeks ahead. See ya 2nd week of June.
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amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
Boghie
Well-known member
The 'C Fund' earned over 2% so far in May.
So avoiding some 'large' days only lost you 1.7% in May. What is the definition of 'large'? Like 8%, maybe 6%, even 4%, kinda 2%, or perhaps 1%. If you ain't in you cannot win. I think the biggest drop in May was a two day collapse of just over 1.5%. Oh, the humanity...
I lost 0.94% against the 'C Fund' in a very conservative allocation. Like you I guessed that seasonality and the FED and gubmint blabbing would affect the market negatively. But since I sleuthed it was a guess I did not get completely out of the market or try to time 1% moves. I figured even a massive 0.25% move in the FED rate would not result in a 10% market correction.
Amoeba, this is a normal market. It is neither booming or collapsing. It should be treated as a normal market.
So avoiding some 'large' days only lost you 1.7% in May. What is the definition of 'large'? Like 8%, maybe 6%, even 4%, kinda 2%, or perhaps 1%. If you ain't in you cannot win. I think the biggest drop in May was a two day collapse of just over 1.5%. Oh, the humanity...
I lost 0.94% against the 'C Fund' in a very conservative allocation. Like you I guessed that seasonality and the FED and gubmint blabbing would affect the market negatively. But since I sleuthed it was a guess I did not get completely out of the market or try to time 1% moves. I figured even a massive 0.25% move in the FED rate would not result in a 10% market correction.
Amoeba, this is a normal market. It is neither booming or collapsing. It should be treated as a normal market.
This is not normal. P/Es of 18 in the SPY is not normal. Interest rates of 0.25% overnight bank-bank loans for 9 years is not normal. Interest rates have been too low far too long and it is potentially coming to the end of that. European markets are trading lower on thin volume today (memorial day); I am guessing flat to down this week.
Not feeling so bad about my seat on the sidelines; the drift to resistance at 2110 continues; but on moderate volume/volatility; I expect it to be broken next week - not sure if it will be a one day pony or prolonged - could be an opportunity for those with the stomach for it.
FogSailing
Well-known member
If I were contrarian, I'd be jumping in. I heard last night that IMF attorneys have found some way to continue the Greece talks and delay debt payment until the end of June. That is very interesting because it provide some running room for June. The other big issue for me is that we really haven't seen any bear flags waving. Lower highs and lower lows haven't presented themselves yet which keeps us in a bull market. I'm going to watch Monday's action then decide. Best of luck in your investing.
FS
FS
Tightroping on what appears to be resistance at 2,100; can't tell if it will bounce or fall. Creep up in the ^VIX the past few days in the opening hours but it settles after that. Wasn't quite able to pull the trigger today (6/2/15) either. Continued tough call. It's as if something is going to happen but it isn't happening.
O
OBXTrader
Guest
Hope it works out. I stayed put in my L Income account. I figured it was low risk no matter what outcome tomorrow since it's only 25% invested. I was tempted to up the risk to L2020 which would be my likely next move. I bought on the last day of May and question the wisdom of that, but it's a long month and I have two IFT's.
Instead I bought some ETF's near session lows (which did nothing) and bought in my 401k.
Instead I bought some ETF's near session lows (which did nothing) and bought in my 401k.
Well, that IFT sucked - stuck 45% in I-fund and it hits a two-month low the first day following; the rest of it (35%C, 20%S) treading water. Man - the market cut and diced that 50EMA on the EFA like butter and then some. I'd like to stay in for awhile - but may have to reallocate with my 2nd IFT if this I-fund flop continues much more. Did NOT see today's (6/5/15) action coming. Another 0.5% down the tubes on my annual return in the blink of an eye.
RATZ!
RATZ!
O
OBXTrader
Guest
Yep, it will hurt me all over the place too.
Well, I did as I mentioned, went into L2020 COB today (Friday). I always say I am going to take the long view and many times I do not live up to what I say.
Well, I did as I mentioned, went into L2020 COB today (Friday). I always say I am going to take the long view and many times I do not live up to what I say.
Carnage continues:
Zero'd out for the year and then some, in negatory for the year. ^VIX tends to correlate generally (inversely) with US markets on which it is based; which are being dragged down by Europe (not the other way round, currently) - it isn't always that way (earlier this year, for example).
I'm pretty bummed at the moment. I'd like to have a day without a 0.5-1% or more negative return soon. I have had insane thoughts recently of going into the bond fund.
Zero'd out for the year and then some, in negatory for the year. ^VIX tends to correlate generally (inversely) with US markets on which it is based; which are being dragged down by Europe (not the other way round, currently) - it isn't always that way (earlier this year, for example).
I'm pretty bummed at the moment. I'd like to have a day without a 0.5-1% or more negative return soon. I have had insane thoughts recently of going into the bond fund.
Made a hash out of my IFTs this month; felt like I was off-timing all along; feel lucky to pull even with the G-fund; and think Tom's commentary is a possibility (another short-term dip coming). If all settles down, I'll wade back in before the next big holiday weekend (July 1 or 2), and see if I can get some easy money on light volume. That said, the market will probably go up 5% before then as my luck would have it.
Boghie
Well-known member
You've done alright this month.
Your problem is that you have blown both IFTs as of June 9th and left nothing in equities. What if you are wrong and equities go up 2%. A 50% holding in equities would probably give you 1+% growth for June. If it dumped 10% your account would be at -2% to -3% when the other 50% is factored in. You could recover that in a normal correction correction
. Now if you are wrong you will gain nothing.
Personally, my crystal ball and my guessing and my picking is never perfect so I don't play the swinger game. Hurt me a bit last year, but has helped my account enormously over time...
Your problem is that you have blown both IFTs as of June 9th and left nothing in equities. What if you are wrong and equities go up 2%. A 50% holding in equities would probably give you 1+% growth for June. If it dumped 10% your account would be at -2% to -3% when the other 50% is factored in. You could recover that in a normal correction correction
. Now if you are wrong you will gain nothing.Personally, my crystal ball and my guessing and my picking is never perfect so I don't play the swinger game. Hurt me a bit last year, but has helped my account enormously over time...
You've done alright this month.
Your problem is that you have blown both IFTs as of June 9th and left nothing in equities. What if you are wrong and equities go up 2%. A 50% holding in equities would probably give you 1+% growth for June. If it dumped 10% your account would be at -2% to -3% when the other 50% is factored in. You could recover that in a normal correction correction
Personally, my crystal ball and my guessing and my picking is never perfect so I don't play the swinger game. Hurt me a bit last year, but has helped my account enormously over time...
I thought about that (the market going up), and I my feeling is this is a narrow trading range in both price, volume and volatility; and with volatility low; I think there is more downside than upside risk, the upside being 1% at most. I feel OK about it. I was only a few days off of really scoring. As it is, I hardly gained enough for bus fare.
Boghie
Well-known member
I agree. I think equities will do nothing or slow burn down a little bit. That is why I have a very conservative allocation based on my personal risk factor. Why be 75%+ in a market likely doing nothing, but with a risk of correcting...
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