amoeba's Account Talk

[OBXTrader]

I let one go to waste last month and did as well at other times. Nothing new for me to do that with low amounts in and out. Today, I went into L Income because that's my risk tolerance right now. It's what I can sleep at night given market performance of late.

I am playing with real money not TSP tracker money and I haven't contributed since May 2010 and then only got to do it for 8.5 years (2001 we military got the right to do so). If I was contributing still, I think I could eat more risk because my horizon would be farther out.

Thought I saw something in the daily charts in the last hour so I went 30% into equities, 40% bonds; last time I did this I got creamed the next day on 25% of a 3.5% drop; markets are around those same levels; followed by a brief dead cat period. Hope to reduce my losses; not sure if I'll hold this position.

 

[amoeba]

I sensed the charts breaking down, so I essentially locked in a small gain, holding onto 25% F (which was down); look at that S-fund chart break down! As to C-fund, that's seems to be buoyed by financials and some of the bigs (AAPL, NKE). I'll bet the premium accounts are loading into F today.

As to Boehner and the prospect of McCarthy - I am unfortunately familiar with the latter, and my expectations or the result (as it affects shutdown, budget) are not good.

 

[amoeba]

The gain I thought I locked, turned out not to be:

As just about everything I put money into (CS and F) were taken to the woodshed for a beating last friday; I ended up down 0.11%, leaving 5% in equities against reason that today (9/28/15) would somehow be positive, but NOOOO!!!!! There's still a huge gap north of 2000 in the SPY which may have given some level of optimism to be filled, but not so much after today. I will probably bail completely soon but will leave my last few equity fund chips in one last day to see if this dead cat has any bounce left.

 

[OBXTrader]

Noting my post below, I bailed on Friday as the setup was all wrong. Friday bounce turned into a decline and I pulled the plug based on the indicators I track. I scraped a .03% gain and wasted both IFT's in the process. That said, it was better than being in L Income today. The markets could rally tomorrow, but that's a lot of ground to make up before I get another two IFTs after two more trading days.

The gain I thought I locked, turned out not to be:

As just about everything I put money into (CS and F) were taken to the woodshed for a beating last friday; I ended up down 0.11%, leaving 5% in equities against reason that today (9/28/15) would somehow be positive, but NOOOO!!!!! There's still a huge gap north of 2000 in the SPY which may have given some level of optimism to be filled, but not so much after today. I will probably bail completely soon but will leave my last few equity fund chips in one last day to see if this dead cat has any bounce left.

 

[amoeba]

Another fake out?

The fade begins: and just before the IFT deadline. I sense we'll be lucky if anything is positive by COB (9/30/15). I'm hoping to close the month down only -0.5%, and the quarter short of -3.00%.

Ugh!

 

[rktect1]

Too much doom and gloom for the market to sell off.

 

[felixthecat]

Re: Another fake out?

Hey...that market weakness was just to freeze the weak folks into wading in. We shall finish strongly in the green and set the stage for Oct 1. This is a classic power move to leave investors in the dust. No doubt...the train left the station. Sure you could say a bounce...but the trade action says this rebound will have strong legs.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Another fake out?

Hey...that market weakness was just to freeze the weak folks into wading in. We shall finish strongly in the green and set the stage for Oct 1. This is a classic power move to leave investors in the dust. No doubt...the train left the station. Sure you could say a bounce...but the trade action says this rebound will have strong legs.

And we did finish up today; which means I only peed away 0.5% for the month. As for legs; I'm not convinced of anything yet. But I have 2 more IFTs to test it. Probably not till midmonth.

 

[amoeba]

Market rocketed up at least 8% since its bottom and I had no positive part of that:

And here we sit at a trailing EPS of 23 in the SPY and what the heck went through the minds of people throwing all this money back in in October? Beats me. I have traders block right now and would love to finish the year in the green but I didn't see the last opportunity and I'm not seeing the next one, notwithstanding seasonality. What I do see are gaps below to be filled and potential retracement down at least 5%. But since when does that happen this time of year? I thought it would already - and then be poised for a santa rally but this isn't this year's pattern.

Hence - I'm so completely confused I'm going to try a premium service for a while and see how that goes. I'll stop in from time to time.

 

[amoeba]

The market dipped on modest volume and futures are fading. Stronger follow-thru (down) tomorrow (11/13/15) before the weekend, perhaps?

 

[amoeba]

I wonder if along the lines of W. Buffett that most traders can't beat S&P 500, perhaps account holders who are very active traders (2 standard deviations--upper 5%--in IFT) are less likely to do well. I am not stating you belong in that camp, I am just thinking aloud.

Go look at the tracker and see how many IFTs the top 30 are making. Buy-and-hold won't get you a PBJ and a glass of milk.

 

[amoeba]

The market dipped on modest volume and futures are fading. Stronger follow-thru (down) tomorrow (11/13/15) before the weekend, perhaps?

I guessed right this time; on higher but still moderate volume; I'm also seeing some large leaders being sold off; hence - my instinct is for continued southward movement a few more percent next week; on bigger volume. Opportunity? Possibly.

 

[amoeba]

Oh my: Perhaps a little steeper decline now due on Monday; but if a typhoon/nuclear meltdown caused only a fairly short (albeit steep) blip, maybe this terrorism act effect will be brief as well. Could be opportunity? Maybe, maybe not.

 

[amoeba]

Oh my: Perhaps a little steeper decline now due on Monday; but if a typhoon/nuclear meltdown caused only a fairly short (albeit steep) blip, maybe this terrorism act effect will be brief as well. Could be opportunity? Maybe, maybe not.

Make that a "not." (wrong again). Anyone who timed the last 5-6 sessions and made money, well - - - that would be breathtaking. I'm not one of them.

 

[amoeba]

updrift ever since my last post, on seasonably weak volume so it means little:

Next week....jobs report, and a likely tiny interest rate rise to follow (on 12/16). Weakness in Asia. My blindness continues (no prediction).

 

[Dinicti]

Go look at the tracker and see how many IFTs the top 30 are making. Buy-and-hold won't get you a PBJ and a glass of milk.

That is for this yr. I am just stating facts with a little opinion, but past 10 yr. annual return in S is 9.44%, a solid return. In 2013 S was +38.35% and the closest TSP Premium svc was nearly 10% away. Many people are smarter than the market, but I think Buffett is right that most people in the long run aren't.

 

[FogSailing]

I read somewhere this week Amoeba that the Fed WON'T raise interest rates but will defer into 2016. Only reason I mention it is because I too have been in the mindset that it's 100% percent decided but then I thought...hmmmm...maybe not. Interesting to think about.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

That is for this yr. I am just stating facts with a little opinion, but past 10 yr. annual return in S is 9.44%, a solid return. In 2013 S was +38.35% and the closest TSP Premium svc was nearly 10% away. Many people are smarter than the market, but I think Buffett is right that most people in the long run aren't.

D: That would be me!!:embarrest:

FS

 

[amoeba]

I'll bet you Buffet knows this:

if you had $1 and you had a annual return of 100% then you would have $2, but if you lost a dollar the next year (-50%), you would have $1 left. If you average 100% and -50%, you get an annual return of 25% per year, even though you made nothing.

 

[Tsunami]

I'll bet you Buffet knows this:

if you had $1 and you had a annual return of 100% then you would have $2, but if you lost a dollar the next year (-50%), you would have $1 left. If you average 100% and -50%, you get an annual return of 25% per year, even though you made nothing.

I'm pretty confident that Buffet would know that would result in a 0% cumulative annual average return.