amoeba's Account Talk

[Intrepid_Timer]

I'll bet you Buffet knows this:

if you had $1 and you had a annual return of 100% then you would have $2, but if you lost a dollar the next year (-50%), you would have $1 left. If you average 100% and -50%, you get an annual return of 25% per year, even though you made nothing.

That's how the shysters do their math to make themselves look better. Instead of adding or subtracting gains and losses to a balance and then averaging out the total, they add their yearly percentage gains or losses and do an average. Doesn't work that way folks.................That's just like if you lose 50% your first year and make 100% the next, that isn't a 25% average per year (50% total), that results in a 0% total gain and average. It's all about consistency..............

 

[amoeba]

Well:

Not much to say other than this week (of 12/14/15) is looking to be one of the most interesting of the year, and extremely hard to even think about predicting with or without news; seasonality, commodities, technicals, futures, play into it. Doesn't feel like ^VIX has peaked yet, even though it ended the week ~24 or so. Happy Holidays!

 

[amoeba]

Its been a few days since I've been on my thread:

I feel a real shellacking coming before the end of the year. Just doesn't feel like a happy holiday. I know I'm wrong most of the time but I don't think so on this call. I feel like I need some more patience in order to make money and I don't have much.

 

[FogSailing]

That's what I'm telling myself Amoeba...that this is a way for the smart money to scare all of us out of the market primarily because trading is emotional. They already own everything so the decisions we see play out in the market are deliberative. I don't care what people say about EW, or technical analysis or any of the rest of it, people make decisions based on their emotions and most of us are about emotioned out. I said earlier I'd bail if SPX falls under 1993. I've revised that to 1956. If I end 2015 down big time, then I will have learned something...it will be painful but I'll be a lot smarter in the future about many things. We'll see how it plays out.

FS

 

[Boghie]

Uh, guys...

The market (as measured by the S&P500) is down a 2 points or something. Hardly a collapse.

By the way, isn't it interesting that the C Fund is down 0.5%. I guess that is dividend reinvestment. Nice, very nice...

 

[ravensfan]

That's what I'm telling myself Amoeba...that this is a way for the smart money to scare all of us out of the market primarily because trading is emotional. They already own everything so the decisions we see play out in the market are deliberative. I don't care what people say about EW, or technical analysis or any of the rest of it, people make decisions based on their emotions and most of us are about emotioned out. I said earlier I'd bail if SPX falls under 1993. I've revised that to 1956. If I end 2015 down big time, then I will have learned something...it will be painful but I'll be a lot smarter in the future about many things. We'll see how it plays out.

FS

Well said FS...Now where did I put that fresh bottle of Captain Morgan? :alcoholic:Arrgh it's a pirates life for me...

 

[OBXTrader]

At the end of the year losing a year's gains is a tough pill to swallow. If one was out of IFT's for November and bought first chance at Dec 1st closing price, they would be down nearly 5% in the C Fund (don't use monthly amount as it includes the December 1st rally price). It is far worse for the S Fund well over 6%.

Uh, guys...

The market (as measured by the S&P500) is down a 2 points or something. Hardly a collapse.

By the way, isn't it interesting that the C Fund is down 0.5%. I guess that is dividend reinvestment. Nice, very nice...

 

[amoeba]

Boy those Friday closing prices are so close to the limits in the C- and S-funds which I thought would trigger a rare follow-through down day on Xmas week (2,010 and 990):

But it is so close it could go either way and with the holiday low volume....now I'm thinking flat to up (0.5-2.0%) by Thursday next week. Something like 2,050 wouldn't surprise me.

 

[FogSailing]

I believe it will go that way also Amoeba....however, I'm thinking more 2040 than 2050. I don't see it rallying back to 2077 next week.

The big indicator to watch next week is the VIX. Anything close to 26 and we should all be thinking G Fund.

We all need a break from the Grinch: but I think we still see a downward movement to between 1973 - 1956 early next week (like you Amoeba)...from there hopefully we will have bottomed and can finally get some recovery.

FS

 

[Tsunami]

but I think we still see a downward movement to between 1973 - 1956 early next week (like you Amoeba)...from there hopefully we will have bottomed and can finally get some recovery.
FS

This agrees with a projected drop to the mid-1900s in the next few days, but then next comes a blastoff into mid-May to new highs.
I can't picture what he has next happening though...a big drop back down to the August lows...then a huge rally all the way into the year 2020.
Market Analysis - 12/21/2015 > 61point8.com
I'm not sure why I bother to read any of these predictions that are all over the web, since most often they're completely wrong.

 

[amoeba]

Boy those Friday closing prices are so close to the limits in the C- and S-funds which I thought would trigger a rare follow-through down day on Xmas week (2,010 and 990):

But it is so close it could go either way and with the holiday low volume....now I'm thinking flat to up (0.5-2.0%) by Thursday next week. Something like 2,050 wouldn't surprise me.

Oh, did I say that? and did it really happen for once? OK, I'll present another observation, namely, the overlapping of the 20 and 50 day EMAs in the SPY (and for 3 days and counting by less than a point) for the first time since, hmmmm, not so long ago, that was late August 2015 and we all know what happened then (KABOOM!).

Wonder if this recent history will repeat itself? Late August 2015 flopped around for about a week or two before the carpet was pulled.

 

[amoeba]

Miss on new home sales. Expecting some more of same in weeks to come (economic numbers, q4, misses). Don't know how this will play out.

 

[amoeba]

Looked at oil and while it is off the most recent bottom (Dec 18-21, 2015); it remains below the 20 day EMA, which it last touched November 4. This will continue to weigh on the total market, especially in the absence of countervailing news. Need some nice upside surprises to turn this around this month (January 2016), or else equities will flounder.

 

[FogSailing]

Watching Apple, one of the powerhouses in the market. If had a tough day Friday and it pulls back further (which is possible, not necessarily probable), even if oil rebounds a bit, I think it's a tough day for the markets on Monday.

I'm in G until after the first week just to see how the initial trend goes. This could bite me in the butt, but so what. I'm getting used to it.

FS

 

[amoeba]

Watching Apple, one of the powerhouses in the market. If had a tough day Friday and it pulls back further (which is possible, not necessarily probable), even if oil rebounds a bit, I think it's a tough day for the markets on Monday.

I'm in G until after the first week just to see how the initial trend goes. This could bite me in the butt, but so what. I'm getting used to it.

FS

And so it is (market down yesterday, including AAPL):

 

[amoeba]

Has the straddle (of 20 and 50 EMAs in the SPY) been violated? And, are we in for a repeat of late last Aug-Sept? Or perhaps August 2014 is more like it (more gradual, steady, decline). Or, worse, a bear market. The situation is a little different right now, flattening earnings, faltering high flyers (AAPL, FANG trade), drag on oil, and interest rates, none of which looks likely to change, or to be offset by news-of-the-day. S-fund is even worse, seemingly moving towards (and perhaps past) the September 2015 trough. That 2% guaranteed yield of the G-fund is looking more and more attractive, although it's not a viable retirement strategy at these rates. So what is?

^VIX has moved into a new dimension, with a 200 EMA of 17+; something not witnessed in at least several years.

 

[amoeba]

Sigh: after today, we will have lost the 200 EMA on the SPY for 4 consecutive days; the momentum seems to be for a break downward towards the 1,950 gap.

 

[amoeba]

Sigh: after today, we will have lost the 200 EMA on the SPY for 4 consecutive days; the momentum seems to be for a break downward towards the 1,950 gap.

A decisive beginning of the Death Cross in the SPY (50 below 200 EMA); although the market recovered from this the last 2 instances (August 2014, September 2015), it too 2-6 weeks. Anything within that period was a poor bet on high volatility. No thanks for right now. See ya later.

 

[amoeba]

Today's (1/8/16) ^VIX ~27 just about matched September 28, 2014; who will give me a donut if it hits 40 by Monday? Now that we have the complete head and shoulders, what's next? A bomb crater?

 

[amoeba]

I think some patience may be in order; I'm looking at around 1,800 or less in the SPY for a bottoming at this point, and no more than 1,850.