amoeba's Account Talk

[felixthecat]

You are right of course. February may start with a bang but end in a fizzle. No illusions here...volatility is the new norm...for us old timers...we know we are stepping in a mine field. TSP Allocation numbers will be watched carefully. Now to break out that old TSPTALK T-Shirt...you know "Friends don't let friends buy and hold" in these deep market corrections or bear markets. I still have it somewhere in the closet"

 

[PessOptimist]

I agree. What I don't understand is why the buy up before earnings. Buying on pure hope?

Ah, yes, hopium for the masses. Someone on here used to talk about hopium often. The drug of choice for many.

PO

 

[amoeba]

The recent IFTs show a stampede of autotracker members exiting equities today (1/29/16). Not sure if that is smart money or a contrarian indicator or IFTs burning a hole in pockets at the end of the month, but whatever it means, it was decisive. Monday 2/1/16 could move 1-3% more in either direction. As the market trading is making no sense to me at the moment, I can hardly venture a more specific guess so I won't.

 

[amoeba]

A review of the last 3 months of the SPY (rounded to nearest 1/10th) shows the opportunities most of us missed:

Monthly highs in November, December, and January were 11/3; 12/1; and 1/3

Monthly lows were 11/13; 12/14; and 1/15.

This should have been easy money for someone; be out of equities at the beginning of the month and get in at the mid-month low. Yet, until last Friday and then only for a handful of us - all 1,500 autotracker members missed the boat on this evolving pattern.

Will prices continue to show a monthly cycle like this? Hard to know. But I'm not feeling frisky on day one.

 

[FogSailing]

I not feeling frisky about this market either Amoeba. Holding my powder. Market pivots are at 1970 and 2000. I need to get 3.5% by end of Feb to be back on target. At this stage the market doesn't seem to have enough gas for SPX 2000 but 1970 is feasible. Of course, oil or other news could change that. S may have more pent up emotion to release so theoretically it could move higher, but it has underperformed for some time now. Once this rally tops out, I think we begin a sharp pullback. If equities are to rally, I think they do it by mid Feb. which would mean the cycle may have changed. Mr. Market doesn't like it when we catch on to a pattern.

All the best in your investing.

FS

 

[amoeba]

You are right of course. February may start with a bang but end in a fizzle. No illusions here...volatility is the new norm...for us old timers...we know we are stepping in a mine field. TSP Allocation numbers will be watched carefully. Now to break out that old TSPTALK T-Shirt...you know "Friends don't let friends buy and hold" in these deep market corrections or bear markets. I still have it somewhere in the closet" 

Mine (In my first year on the tracker for being #4 as partial year leader in 2008 or 2009; not counting the G-fund which beat me) is posted on my cubicle wall where I can see it daily. I haven't been within a decimal place of that in the rankings since.

 

[amoeba]

What the !:

Another consecutive week of ~8mbbl crude inventory build, a miss on the ISM, and the market is only down 1% at mid-session. Come on, all you weak hands...throw in the towel already! More bailing on the tracker today as SPY draws near its 1/20/16 52-week low, which, I should add - has been hard resistance since (not touched). Bonds going every which way. More economic numbers to come later this week to mix things up, Europe, USA jobs, etc.

Isn't this exciting?

 

[FogSailing]

My new motto this week Amoeba: "We all see what you want to see. Therefore... emotions triumph technical analysis".

Dollar down. Bonds will start to tank which I thought probable a few days ago. Watching this market is like watching a flock of hummingbirds all buzzing around, darting here and there. It's really hard to get a fix because the changes are constant. Given the bounce from 1878, my guess is that tomorrow is up to 1920 area. Next week, I still expect more downside.

FS

 

[amoeba]

My new motto this week Amoeba: "We all see what you want to see. Therefore... emotions triumph technical analysis".

Dollar down. Bonds will start to tank which I thought probable a few days ago. Watching this market is like watching a flock of hummingbirds all buzzing around, darting here and there. It's really hard to get a fix because the changes are constant. Given the bounce from 1878, my guess is that tomorrow is up to 1920 area. Next week, I still expect more downside.

FS

Or the mid-day reversal since your post could surpass it in the next 10 minutes and result in a close at 1930 today? Note, however, the lower intraday low. Sitting on my hands for now.

 

[FogSailing]

I really wish we had until 3-4pm to make our IFT. The system is so rigged against us.

FS

 

[GUCHI]

I really wish we had until 3-4pm to make our IFT. The system is so rigged against us.

FS

. Yea it's like playing cards with half the deck ughhhhh

 

[amoeba]

Another higher intraday low today (2/4/16):

Partly on the heels of a baffling 3-day decline in the dollar/euro. Some serious weirdness is going on here. I still think the high for the month has been put in; the latest sketch of the S-fund shows the length of this latest bear-flag (since Jan 20) has now just about matched that of the 11 biz day flag of December 14-30 of last year. So the decline should start tomorrow and reach its nadir I'm guessing around February 12 since that's a Friday before a holiday and who wants to go into a Monday with empty pockets. Then its buy buy buy for the foolhardy.

Can a dead cat bounce more than a woodchuck chucks? We'll see.

 

[amoeba]

Another higher intraday low today (2/4/16):

Partly on the heels of a baffling 3-day decline in the dollar/euro. Some serious weirdness is going on here. I still think the high for the month has been put in; the latest sketch of the S-fund shows the length of this latest bear-flag (since Jan 20) has now just about matched that of the 11 biz day flag of December 14-30 of last year. So the decline should start tomorrow and reach its nadir I'm guessing around February 12 since that's a Friday before a holiday and who wants to go into a Monday with empty pockets. Then its buy buy buy for the foolhardy.

Can a dead cat bounce more than a woodchuck chucks? We'll see.

What did I tell you? What did I tell you? What did I tell you?

Actually - I've made a lot of mostly wrong predictions. But perhaps better than random chance this time. I think this flush out will continue to new 52-week lows next week, fast and sure, and I will stick with next Friday (Feb 12) as the intermediate low; as Yellen goes before Congress earlier in the week and stays the course (data dependent, more rate hikes coming); That should put a sock in the talking heads. The carnage will hit both stocks and to a lessor but significant degree bonds as well, so gee (hint), what's the best short term option?

 

[FogSailing]

Just to back up your thoughts on the FED. Also saw that Fischer was jawboning the same stuff with a focus on "inflation".

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/02/

What's interesting is that for a service economy like ours, cheap oil prices and high employment are good for the economy (but not so much for the stock market). Wish the stock market reflected our economy better because things would be much easier to follow. The market is its own animal for sure.

FS

 

[Boghie]

Just to back up your thoughts on the FED. Also saw that Fischer was jawboning the same stuff with a focus on "inflation".

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/02/

What's interesting is that for a service economy like ours, cheap oil prices and high employment are good for the economy (but not so much for the stock market). Wish the stock market reflected our economy better because things would be much easier to follow. The market is its own animal for sure.

FS

The market will adjust to the economy...

 

[FogSailing]

I think we're headed there Boghie.....just another 50% loss on current stock value and we'll be close..

FS

 

[amoeba]

As if anyone cares; I can barely log into the forum, no less see what anyone else is doing on the autotracker:

I'm absolutely sitting on my hands today and here are my reasons. Although the early price action is negative, it is only the second of what I believe will be a longer, much more significant, further decline continuing this week. You can see the ^VIX has not duplicated its recent highs (30+) in August 2015; but does match the most recent spike (January 2016). Volumes are moderate (weak IMO considering the volatility), so my conclusion is there is a "hoper" mentality out there in which many are buying in and then will bail out soon thereafter - meaning sometime before the close today until perhaps tomorrow morning if there is a deadcat bounce. Maybe, but it will be shortlived, difficult to time; hence, I want no part of that.

I also believe, on the emotional side, there is increasing dis-belief in anything that comes out of the yap of Draghi or the effect of further stimulus, or "the internet" regarding rumors of an "oil deal."

 

[FogSailing]

I think you're correct Amoeba. We have broken the SPX H&S pattern to the downside. So what that there was a 25 point rally in the late close....keeps buyers in the game....The low today was 1828. To me that says the trend is more downside.

Best of luck to all in your trading.

FS

 

[Lakebound]

Sell in February and go away until 2017 ......

 

[amoeba]

Sell in February and go away until 2017 ......

Naw, its not that bad:

There's a couple options. One could jump on the bandwagon and move into the F-fund, albeit late - and then wait for the comet to impact.

And by that - I mean darken the planet kind of selling. Gap created 3% at the open, and bottoms out at something like minus 6-8% for the day. Put that SPY down at 1,650 in a heartbeat. Shake those trees. Panic selling of 600, 700 million SPY shares. People jumping out windows. Despair.

That's worth buying into. And the reason? Really - this isn't that much of a dip; sure - it's 25% in the S-fund, but only maybe 12-14% in the C-fund. Unemployment is down. Wages (if but by force of minimum wage implementation) are up. Oil, well hell - we shouldn't be screwing up the planet anyway; maybe reduced demand through alternative energy is the way out of increased supply. Create some other market that is less dirty.

I'm still entertaining the 1,800 thereabouts range; but increasingly thinking I was significantly overoptimistic as that day quickly approaches. May give it a go. But less enthusiastic about jumping in with the recent pattern of water torture decline of %2-4/week, with 2 up days for every 3 bigger down days.