amoeba's Account Talk

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Arrrgh!!!! In addition to the carnage today, my FA issued a potential sell everything warning beginning 10/12. Something about the election. Which probably means hrc spells bad news for cap gains. Can you say higher taxes. They're coming.

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I see it! The crossing of the 20 and 50 EMAs in the SPY! Last two of these were followed by a 5-10% correction. Not a death cross, but, possible concern if the 20 isn't recaptured soon and especially if volume increases, which it has not. Yet. Not sticking my head in the sand, this time.
 
Crap: we're screwed; looks like another -3% next week, with the 200 EMAs as the next stop down this elevator shaft. My FA has me in cash till after the election at least, and we all know what's in store thereafter. That's right ladies and gentlemen! Higher interest rates! I just hope the selloff isn't Monday.
 
amoeba said:
Crap: we're screwed; looks like another -3% next week, with the 200 EMAs as the next stop down this elevator shaft. My FA has me in cash till after the election at least, and we all know what's in store thereafter. That's right ladies and gentlemen! Higher interest rates! I just hope the selloff isn't Monday.
Click to expand...
Looks like the market is the little engine that can't. Who has an emergency parachute?

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amoeba said:
I see it! The crossing of the 20 and 50 EMAs in the SPY! Last two of these were followed by a 5-10% correction. Not a death cross, but, possible concern if the 20 isn't recaptured soon and especially if volume increases, which it has not. Yet. Not sticking my head in the sand, this time.
Click to expand...

This isn't an opinion; just chart the SPY 2 years and focus on what happened post-June 26 and December 30, 2015; is the third time a charm? Doubt it. If there's some kind of relief rally that comes close to the 20 EMA, around 2,141 (or exceeds it, as witnessed in early July 2015) - consider it a gift horse selling opportunity, to then await a correction to come near or post interest rate action, and go from there. I don't buy the election anxiety theory; that's over, unfortunately perhaps.
 
Last chance to watch the roller-coaster from the sidelines today. The VIX may have recaptured its 20 day EMA, but the cycle suggests a higher low coming, around 13.5. IMO, A 3-5% drop is imminent.

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amoeba said:
This isn't an opinion; just chart the SPY 2 years and focus on what happened post-June 26 and December 30, 2015; is the third time a charm? Doubt it. If there's some kind of relief rally that comes close to the 20 EMA, around 2,141 (or exceeds it, as witnessed in early July 2015) - consider it a gift horse selling opportunity, to then await a correction to come near or post interest rate action, and go from there. I don't buy the election anxiety theory; that's over, unfortunately perhaps.
Click to expand...

Third time, this week, was not a charm; history appears to be repeating itself; this one is allowing some prisoners of very selected stocks to escape a flogging; but anyone all in is being taken to the cleaners by slow torture declines; without much volume; and without obvious safety moves, especially TSP options. F is bleeding, and G won't match inflation.

It looks like there's two strategies out there: A) sell low, think about buying in lower after election/december rate hike, or, B) stick your head in the sand, and don't look.
 
Volume increasing, technicals unfavorable. I'm convinced this market is in the middle of a painful, slow, downdraft that's not even close to a reprieve. Now is a time for patience. Maybe SPY 2040, or if that fails, perhaps 1875.
 
No folks, it isn't the election. Anyone who is betting on a quick buck by investing in the next few sessions is in store for a very unpleasant reaction as this slow death market convulses to a bottom. Be sensible. You can't get a heartbeat out of a dead cat. Its just not worth it.

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At this juncture, I wouldn't touch equities at least until the VIX 20 EMA recrosses the 50 EMA for a minimum of 2 days. PATIENCE!!! Late December, early January, is possible to reinvest, "maybe" earlier as technicals and economics dictate, which they clearly don’t now. PS-its NOT the election.

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Damn: I've been ignoring my own account talk. Looking for an opportunity, and not yet seeing a good one in this climb on faith interrupted by muted short term reactions to tweeting and such, At some point, everyone will realize the election is over, and there's work that needs to be done (not just talked about).

Jobs numbers this week (on 3/10/17), IMO will surprise big (more jobs, lower unemployment), which will either bring stocks down based on rate expectation fears, or buoy them based on hopes of better earnings.
 
Well $h!t:

I just rebought some FITB this morning thinking I was Mr. Smarty pants after selling at the peak last week, and its flopping around like a dead fish, along with everything else in the market - big and small stocks, bonds, F fund. There's just gotta be something else to make money besides G-fund.

And, it looks like someone stuffed a sock in DJT's tweeting yap today; or is feeding him some lines until the dust settles completely from last weekend.
 
Staying away from financials, and oil, taking a stab at some high-risk biotech today (NBIX), in advance of FDA's PDUFA sometime early April. Been burned before on that issue. I continue to like the I fund.

Looks like the markets are coming to terms (or at least holding up) despite DJT's late night (or pre-dawn), emotional tweets; maybe its how he relaxes or vents; its just that everyone's listening now. I don't think any of it is that serious, but a part of it is. Video games or bad golf would be less unnerving.
 
Well, that NBIX bet is working nicely so far, so you readers are welcome to bid it up so I can make a quick 10% by weeks end. Thanks in advance!

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Holding diminimus equities in advance of jobs report. Should be a dropoff and possible downward revision to last month. Will be careful to avoid falling knife. Correction overdue.

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Not liking the looks of things, steam running out of trump faith rally? Nothing positive to hold up overpriced market? Yet. Will see what jobs report brings. AAII neutral, no hint what's next.

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