amoeba's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Another day (2/9/16) of moderately elevated trade volume and ^VIX, but not extreme, make this a hard call:

It nevertheless ate further at all of our fund prices. Looks like preliminary bottom-fishing/knife-catching with no conviction. I'm staying out. Yellen before Congress tomorrow while bank stocks weaken as savers are punished by low interest rates at one end, and no where to go in this evolving bear market on the other.

Please raise those rates already so I can pull 3% in a money market before it is all eaten alive by inflation. No more excuses. Just do it.
 
amoeba said:
Please raise those rates already so I can pull 3% in a money market before it is all eaten alive by inflation. No more excuses. Just do it.
Click to expand...

you will not get your 3% in a money market until real inflation is at 5%. that is the way the blood-tick safe-interest game works.
 
Well: there were times (1992) when my savings account pulled in 8%, and I dunno if inflation was 11%, but thems were the days, long gone:

Back to the present; today (2/10/16) witnessed IMO an extremely bearish reaction to unexpectedly dovish remarks by the FED chairwoman ("....market conditions....", remember?). Sold hard at the close to flatness, as another holiday weekend approaches.

Do I think there will be opportunities? Perhaps, but like the last one (1/29/16), they will be hard to presage and short in duration, until a true bottom is put in.

So what am I thinking that is right now, you ask? Not 1,800; not 1,650; not 1,500; in the SPY. Nope. All too high.

Somewhere in the neighborhood of no more than 1,300 by end of this year feels about right to go all in. I will remain picky and partial in my investments until then. Or in F fund if there is a bond sale, which there hasn't been recently.
 
Man:

This (2/11/16) is a tough call. Volumes and declines are piling up - but not, that, much (200 million SPY (not 400-500);-1-2% drops; not bigger or with gaps). Futures been flat, accelerate overnight one way, flop all over the place until the open, and then the market goes every which way but loose until the IFT deadline.

I feel like buying into a little bit of whatever's on sale. Just dunno if its the right time or worth it.
 
amoeba said:
Man:

This (2/11/16) is a tough call. Volumes and declines are piling up - but not, that, much (200 million SPY (not 400-500);-1-2% drops; not bigger or with gaps). Futures been flat, accelerate overnight one way, flop all over the place until the open, and then the market goes every which way but loose until the IFT deadline.

I feel like buying into a little bit of whatever's on sale. Just dunno if its the right time or worth it.
Click to expand...

Well - I walked the walk, bought, got out, and made some money. Hip hip hurrah to fractions. And now is not the time to hope for anything more out of this phony, BS, rumor-of-an-oil-deal, based rally. I heard some analysts talking about the preceeding decline as "panic" selling. C'mon people. Since when is 200 million SPY "panic"? Nope - this is no panic - this is an orderly re-pricing of stocks from inflated P/E and declining forecasts. We're just lucky that, in its early stages (yes there's more downside to come, soon, IMO) that these rumors have some effect.

As it moves into the next, more decisive, downward wave, volumes and volatility will pick up and be more sustained. That - in addition to other factors - will force the SPY well below its current 52-week low of ~1,820. Just lop off another 20-30% from there. And I don't mean next year, I mean I think this will start over the next month and then move so fast for consecutive days it will take the breath out of you.

Who wants to be impaled by that falling knife? Not me.
 
amoeba said:
Well - I walked the walk, bought, got out, and made some money. Hip hip hurrah to fractions. And now is not the time to hope for anything more out of this phony, BS, rumor-of-an-oil-deal, based rally. I heard some analysts talking about the preceeding decline as "panic" selling. C'mon people. Since when is 200 million SPY "panic"? Nope - this is no panic - this is an orderly re-pricing of stocks from inflated P/E and declining forecasts. We're just lucky that, in its early stages (yes there's more downside to come, soon, IMO) that these rumors have some effect.

As it moves into the next, more decisive, downward wave, volumes and volatility will pick up and be more sustained. That - in addition to other factors - will force the SPY well below its current 52-week low of ~1,820. Just lop off another 20-30% from there. And I don't mean next year, I mean I think this will start over the next month and then move so fast for consecutive days it will take the breath out of you.

Who wants to be impaled by that falling knife? Not me.
Click to expand...


Me neither. Sitting out for awhile to see how things go in March/April. Maybe dip a toe in now and then and get out to try and make my 5% target for the year in increments.

Frank
 
What a confusing irrational day (2/24/16):

Oil inventory builds for the 5th week out of the last 6; new home sales miss; and what now? oil and the market go up?
I am sleuthing the usual suspects for a basis for the mid-day reversal and am not finding it; perhaps pushing against technical bounds, or maybe Dallas Fed chairman Kaplan's remarks.
Scratching my head on this day's action. Any other ideas of what's going on?

Oh well - F-fund held up pretty well but its pushing against the recent October 2015 highs so I'm paying attention to it.
 
pmaloney said:
Agreed! You could argue we could go up or down but why did Oil go up. Who would buy into a glut?
Click to expand...

Maybe the same people who bought into it today? Tom says in his commentary that the market is following oil; oil is following what now? Nothing would surprise me tomorrow (2/26/16).
 
amoeba said:
What a confusing irrational day (2/24/16):

Oil inventory builds for the 5th week out of the last 6; new home sales miss; and what now? oil and the market go up?
I am sleuthing the usual suspects for a basis for the mid-day reversal and am not finding it; perhaps pushing against technical bounds, or maybe Dallas Fed chairman Kaplan's remarks.
Scratching my head on this day's action. Any other ideas of what's going on?

Oh well - F-fund held up pretty well but its pushing against the recent October 2015 highs so I'm paying attention to it.
Click to expand...

Maybe next time I'll read my own post before waiting too long and end up averaging out on a down day (for F). There should be some real fireworks next week with primaries, jobs, and more. I don't think there's much of a chance to have a 3rd up week in a row; but I didn't think there would be a 2nd either.

Another month, another 2 IFTs to roll the dice.
 
Another losing day for me; but I'll still end the month with my nose above the waterline. I'm taking a seat on the sidelines this week; even though if I was a gambler there appears to be money bet on the SPY since it is building slightly above its 50 EMA for ~4th consecutive day, so some may think its starting to form a new head ~2,000+ (at the same time there is a draw on bonds). Even so, that's well below break-even return for the buy and holders for the last 12 months. I don't see this recent blip as a new pattern. Yet.
 
OK: So yesterday ended up not being a losing day; and here I sit watching funds go exactly the opposite I thought they would; so maybe the sidelines are a good place for me. There's so little history on bear market patterns that I have little to go on. Recent history suggests the 200 EMA of SPY (~2000) should be breached and then held for a bit before the market either continues downward to new lows or the bear trend breaks completely.

I'm surprised at how the market can reverse emotion on a dime like this; some of this is oil speculation; but oversupply hasn't changed. I can only guess it is some other play on politics or international money that I'm not clued into. Didn't see today coming.

Oh well.
 
amoeba said:
OK: So yesterday ended up not being a losing day; and here I sit watching funds go exactly the opposite I thought they would; so maybe the sidelines are a good place for me. There's so little history on bear market patterns that I have little to go on. Recent history suggests the 200 EMA of SPY (~2000) should be breached and then held for a bit before the market either continues downward to new lows or the bear trend breaks completely.

I'm surprised at how the market can reverse emotion on a dime like this; some of this is oil speculation; but oversupply hasn't changed. I can only guess it is some other play on politics or international money that I'm not clued into. Didn't see today coming.

Oh well.
Click to expand...

And I didn't trade on my own instinct above. Look at that S-car-go! Now I'm thinking 2,050 and more. But I've got trader's block. And I'm falling in the tracker, though in the top 200 still. For now.
 
amoeba said:
And I didn't trade on my own instinct above. Look at that S-car-go! Now I'm thinking 2,050 and more. But I've got trader's block. And I'm falling in the tracker, though in the top 200 still. For now.
Click to expand...

Did I say something? Good thing I read my own posts and put half my chips down earlier this week. If I'm lucky, I may be north of 1% COB. Yay. Letting it ride next week on the heels of today's revival and the seasonally positive days upcoming (see graph in Tom's commentary).
 
I am now seeing a potential 2,060 by weeks' end (3/18/16), but I may take whatever icing is left to be put on this rally and sell......still......looking up at that F-fund feeds the greed; I'd rather be looking down at it.
 
amoeba said:
I am now seeing a potential 2,060 by weeks' end (3/18/16), but I may take whatever icing is left to be put on this rally and sell......still......looking up at that F-fund feeds the greed; I'd rather be looking down at it.
Click to expand...


3/17/16: Finally caught that F-fund return; moving up the tracker (I'm tempted to take a screenshot of my place in the rankings for posterity). Trend intact (see my "free money" post in the short term strategies forum); additionally, we have some distinct inflow waves forming (more trading volume on updays); I see the next one right around 2,060....if this rally gets there at all.... If so, it could rise to 2,100 in another week. If not, we collapse down below 2,000 and maybe then some. Interesting choice.

And here I am stuck at only half equities. I good month so far, but could be better if I had more IFTs.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

V
Valleymd blog (the international question)
Replies
2
Views
155
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker - Up 14% for November and Clinging to the S-fund
Replies
0
Views
322
TommyIV
TommyIV
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - Opportunistic Investors
Replies
0
Views
88
TommyIV
TommyIV
TommyIV
September Contest in Progress
Replies
3
Views
4K
TommyIV
TommyIV
P
Negative Adjustment Earnings
Replies
3
Views
189
nasa1974
nasa1974
Back
Top