amoeba's Account Talk

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Birchtree said:
And please don't forget to tithe the 700 club.
Click to expand...

Better than the 900 club; in any case - volume picked up for a Friday and we have had several moderate volume blips this week (+100 million in the SPY); but the activity really needs to continue and increase to ~150-200 million in order for it to signal any kind of "washout". There could be some angst towards the end of the month depending on how Greece pans out. Might have to wait it out past the July 4 holiday week and the next week as well. I'm not getting any instinct right now.
 
Hang in there amoeba. And forget that "crazy talk" about jumping into bonds...

I'm like you....in a wait and see mode. I have serious doubts about the market making 5% before July 1st unless (1) the Chinese do something elaborate (2) the Greeks find Midas's Gold (3) The Fed finds Midas's Gold, or someone creates "cold fusion". I thinks it's time to relax and have a few pre-holiday brewskis.

View attachment 34045

All the best in your investing.

FS
 
amoeba said:
Better than the 900 club; in any case - volume picked up for a Friday and we have had several moderate volume blips this week (+100 million in the SPY); but the activity really needs to continue and increase to ~150-200 million in order for it to signal any kind of "washout". There could be some angst towards the end of the month depending on how Greece pans out. Might have to wait it out past the July 4 holiday week and the next week as well. I'm not getting any instinct right now.
Click to expand...

Maybe my instincts are better than I thought (quote from 2 wks ago).......whether this market craters some more or shoots to the moon remains to be seen.
 
I say mini-moon shot; something on the order of 2,090-2,100 in the SPY by COB tomorrow. Put my TSP(80% of it) where my mouth is on that prediction. May throw the rest of the chips in tomorrow - don't we have a jobs report coming up? Could be interesting.
 
This is getting interesting; volume doesn't look high, but it is....for pre-holiday....and that's with many traders (and most of the autotracker participants perhaps) sitting on their hands.... is this waiting for Sunday night's referendum? Threw the rest of my chips into the pot 7/2/15 in advance of the holiday (100% in equity funds).
 
Stunk it up with that IFT, especially the 30% in the I fund (which put me under 1% for the year). I really misread the Greek referendum vote; the polls were way, way, off. This could take awhile to sort out. I lightened up; half-hoping for a deadcat in the I-fund Tuesday. Trade volume isn't that high all things considered at the moment.
 
Markets deadcatted up Tuesday as my gut suspected but not by very much. I dumped more into G-fund accordingly - but my remaining 25% in equities was smitten quite badly today, Wednesday (7/8/15) by the triple whammy (Greece/Asia/NYSE snafu). I have 5% in equities remaining for posterity. SPY P/E down to 18, which is well above historical means but not way out of whack.

Volumes are up moderately but still not washout levels, so I believe there is more damage ahead in the coming days/weeks. Starting to look like the unwinding of last summer. As then, things can change quickly. Keep your eye on the noon deadline and your finger on the button - that is - for those with IFTs left. I'm not one of them.
 
Hot dam:

My annual return might be back over +0.5% at COB today (7/28/15); might even keep my losses by end-of-month under 1%. Letting my 14% ride. Will average up on the 1% rule if I can.

YAY!
 
Somehow:

I keep going into the market at lower and lower levels, and bailing at even lower levels than that. I've tried a couple different strategies - getting out right away, and averaging down - and neither has limited the loss. This 2 IFT limit has ratted me to no tomorrow. This month (August 2015), I'm gonna let me 16% ride , and look for a top (to step aside), or a dip (to increase allocation). A 5% drop will only put me down ~1%, and if it rises, I'll be able to bail and get back in at the next dip.
 
I know it sucks when you see your earnings getting eaten up: BUT your sense of humor is great. You made me LOL. I love it "IFT God"....wish I had thought of that one. All the best to you in August!!!

FS
 
I feel like I can't do anything right: I bailed from all in to 16%, and watched that erode through nearly the whole month of August and then fall off a cliff till I couldn't take it anymore, reduced my exposure to 6% and only then does the market flail up like a bottle rocket for two days; watch it settle and drop mildly today (8/31/15) - where upon I used my second IFT to wade in 25%.

Futures down sharply as I speak....looking at a gap down at the open somewhere around 2% and it could be a whole lot more than that. I should bail just so the market demons will mock me with another bottle rocket midweek. I will P away another 0.5% - if I'm were lucky - and I know I'm not.
 
I wonder if along the lines of W. Buffett that most traders can't beat S&P 500, perhaps account holders who are very active traders (2 standard deviations--upper 5%--in IFT) are less likely to do well. I am not stating you belong in that camp, I am just thinking aloud.
 
Looking at the top 30 in our tracker tells me, and you, that it isn't trading activity as much as how good of a trader that makes a difference. Me - not so good. I bailed on another very poorly timed, relatively gun-shy trade (25%), which still thumped me for another -0.5%. I'm not going to even look for two weeks. SQRU all this.
 
amoeba said:
Looking at the top 30 in our tracker tells me, and you, that it isn't trading activity as much as how good of a trader that makes a difference. Me - not so good. I bailed on another very poorly timed, relatively gun-shy trade (25%), which still thumped me for another -0.5%. I'm not going to even look for two weeks. SQRU all this.
Click to expand...

All I can say amoeba is some days your the dog and some days your the fire hydrant...:banghead:
 
Hello: just peeking my head out of the sand for a second. Oh, I see, the market is still moving sideways - or is that a death quiver? No thanks. I'll see ya later at either a much higher level (like a triple golden cross of C,S, and I) or when the market goes MUCH lower.

How low? I say 1,500 in the SPY or thereabouts. I'm about ready to let my second IFT rot on the vine this month for the first time in 2 years.

Yick.
 
Thought I saw something in the daily charts in the last hour so I went 30% into equities, 40% bonds; last time I did this I got creamed the next day on 25% of a 3.5% drop; markets are around those same levels; followed by a brief dead cat period. Hope to reduce my losses; not sure if I'll hold this position.
 
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