amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Rising stair-step pattern in ^VIX continues and remains >20EMA; portends possibly further spike in volatility and drop in major indices; hence no IFT today.

 

[amoeba]

Volatility continuing to create new patterns; 20 EMA cross violated, did not exceed; bought in on a guess yesterday and working out so far. Going skiing for a week and not gonna look at the internet or newspaper the whole time; remains to be seen if I will bail before the plane leaves sunday am or stay all in (as of 3/26/15 COB). Besides that, the EFA 20EMA is closing in on the 50EMA; so maybe the bear is getting beaten finally there.

My short term goals are:

-get back in pository
-beat the G fund
-beat the F fund

Anything beyond that would be gravy. A negative year would be real disappointing; I've had only one in 23 and I didn't like it.

 

[amoeba]

Goal #1 (pository) achieved; Goal #2 (beat the G-fund) achieved and then lost:

I'm starting to see another 6-month pattern in which the ^VIX tends to spike sharply if/when it falls to around or below 13; will look to this as an intermediate exit point; otherwise stay the course (100% equities) for now.

 

[amoeba]

Well:

Looks like my complacency trigger was hit late today (^VIX closed @ 13.09), when I couldn't act on it with today's IFT. I'll definitely have my finger on the trigger to go to the sidelines if equities gap up tomorrow (4/10/15). Could just as easily gap down 1.5% or move sideways.

Hard to say.

 

[OBXTrader]

You would have gone to G Fund if you had the chance today? The April move is better than the first three months. At IFT deadline market was in decline, my research which I posted showed S&P would do well today but that was not apparent.

Well:

Looks like my complacency trigger was hit late today (^VIX closed @ 13.09), when I couldn't act on it with today's IFT. I'll definitely have my finger on the trigger to go to the sidelines if equities gap up tomorrow (4/10/15). Could just as easily gap down 1.5% or move sideways.

Hard to say.

 

[amoeba]

Stepped to the sidelines on the heels of a set of low-volume/low-volatility days approaching the year's high in the SPY; reasons are:

Seasonality (expect some mid-month consolidation after trading day 7 in April); Earnings (hard to say, financials reporting early next week); and the high P/E (18) in the SPY; when I go back in I will probably reallocate more heavily to I-fund, although the leading funds have changed month-month this year.

Best month of the year for me; closing in on the C-fund.

 

[OBXTrader]

I went to L Income. If I am wrong and markets climb, it's better than kicking myself in the G Fund. If they decline, well I took 70% less downside risk off the table from L2050 (I think that math is right). I still have an IFT to rejoin a bull move up or buy a significant dip without much damage or if nothing really happens I can chose to go into May fully invested in L2050 again. It was all risk management since 2010 I can't contribute to TSP, I am often too conservative. Hope that makes sense.

Nothing wrong with ringing the cash register, did it two other accounts yesterday too.

Stepped to the sidelines on the heels of a set of low-volume/low-volatility days approaching the year's high in the SPY; reasons are:

Seasonality (expect some mid-month consolidation after trading day 7 in April); Earnings (hard to say, financials reporting early next week); and the high P/E (18) in the SPY; when I go back in I will probably reallocate more heavily to I-fund, although the leading funds have changed month-month this year.

Best month of the year for me; closing in on the C-fund.

 

[amoeba]

Was not out long (~4 biz days, back in ~4/15/15), reweighted heavily into I-fund, got creamed on a big down day, then whipsawed up to a 2% gain this month on current extremes (lows) in volatility near ^VIX of 12.2 as I speak (1 pm EDT 4/24/15):

Jumped over the F-fund; but still under the median of the tracker by a good bit. My sentiment is high (which with low volatility is a bad sign for the market); anything north of 0.5% more before the end of month and I will consider lightening up.

 

[Whipsaw]

Did somebody say Whipsaw?

 

[amoeba]

Well shoot: easy come easy go; held my cards in equities on a historical positive bet on the first few days of May, and got creamed when I didn't need to be in. And there's really nothing out there that explains the last couple negative days; not volume, news.....I just don't see it.

So I believe probably some technical short term thing without a real explanation....which makes it the hardest to guess what will follow.

I just don't know what to do...so I won't do anything right now but observe.

 

[Boghie]

Well shoot: easy come easy go; held my cards in equities on a historical positive bet on the first few days of May, and got creamed when I didn't need to be in. And there's really nothing out there that explains the last couple negative days; not volume, news.....I just don't see it.

So I believe probably some technical short term thing without a real explanation....which makes it the hardest to guess what will follow.

I just don't know what to do...so I won't do anything right now but observe.

How about a relatively 'toppy' market...

 

[amoeba]

How about a relatively 'toppy' market...

How about it? I see nothing, including on the basis of the intermediate term (~10 years) would have been an expected top at ~1,875 in the SPY. Didn't happen. I am detecting/anticipating nada (correctly) but remain in the green this calender year.

 

[Boghie]

How about it? I see nothing, including on the basis of the intermediate term (~10 years) would have been an expected top at ~1,875 in the SPY. Didn't happen. I am detecting/anticipating nada (correctly) but remain in the green this calender year.

Better be quick on your feet with that allocation. It is almost as risky as holding just one of the equity funds.
Then again, if you are too quick to bail you will not make any money.
So, you have to be quick and slow.

I lost 16% in 2008 in two days. Too late to get out the first day, and had to wait to COB on the second to bail. Till that point I was positive. Not as positive as Poolman, but still looking good. After that, the struggle was on...

 

[FogSailing]

I know just what to do....if only the rest of market was with me..;swear

I'm still sitting in G waiting for some clue as to where this market is headed...Best of Luck to all of you.

FS

 

[amoeba]

I bailed yesterday and everything is dropping today (5/5/15); I did the same thing 4/15/15 and the market dropped only one day before breaking forward later in the month to new highs. My instinct is the same - to sit for at least a few days in G and see what plays out.

 

[amoeba]

3 day settlement, with a modest ^VIX spike, before turning sharply north to another new high (SPY); I had half a mind to do the IFT into F-fund, which tends to slide some of the gains or losses into the next trading day (I think somehow related to that "fair value" thing); but I'm still not sure what today's trade means; it is higher volume - but not a big move (with the exception of EFA - which was huge volume on an upday); then again it is decent volume in the SPY for a friday. And energy has had some large moves, both ways, most recently up (today). All in all - I expect to sit on my hands for another day or so at least.

 

[FogSailing]

I'll wait till Monday to make a decision for May. I hate to miss a 1% gain day but right now I'm looking for steadier performance and I'm still seeing schizo-market. Of course, maybe that's because I need to refill the Prozac.

Best of Luck next week.

FS

 

[Birchtree]

If you don't mind eating a little hoof dust then you'll be fine.

 

[JimmyJoe]

I know just what to do....if only the rest of market was with me..;swear

I'm still sitting in G waiting for some clue as to where this market is headed...Best of Luck to all of you.

FS

Generally, after years of experience, it is better to be in the market than out. After many years of experience this is true.

 

[Cactus]

Over the long term the trend of the market is up. The trick is to survive the intermediate down drafts. Those can be quite long. The NASDAQ is only now getting back to its high from 2000. That was 15 years ago!