amoeba's Account Talk

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Re: amoeba's account talk

For anyone wondering what would happen when volume returned to normal:

There you have it. Yet another sharp drop in oil, and another hit on equities - big names in big caps and everyone else. Well within normal trading (^VIX<25; change <2%: <200 million SPY) which - of course - makes a bottom very hard to call - especially the first day after a long holiday; could be pent up trading demand, or other things. Something like this happened a year ago around this time; the larger moves were a bit later (in February, right?).

Felix dove in head first. Who's next?
 
Re: amoeba's account talk

Hmmm:

Seems a bit early for a bottom, huh? When the ^VIX crests 20, it has taken a minimum of 12 and as many as 30 sessions to reach a true bottom and what has it been? 5 or 6? and some of those were between holidays. But this one is an odd bird. I get this feeling, with the dip short and still shallow (<5%), that there has got to be a test of the former resistence at 2020-2025, before either breaking through it or moving 3-4% lower. There are several factors at work here - - - I think I will wait some more.
 
Re: amoeba's account talk

Meh:

Decided to throw some chips (25%) in today (1/7/15); appeared to be some increased buying just before the IFT deadline as SPY touched 2025 so this is a bet on some sort of short term follow-through (i.e., if it closes above 2020 and VIX drops under 20). Oil is at least pausing; and the upmarket despite Paris shootings lends mild optimisim. Of course, anything can happen - but only one thing will.
 
Re: amoeba's account talk

amoeba said:
Meh:

Decided to throw some chips (25%) in today (1/7/15); appeared to be some increased buying just before the IFT deadline as SPY touched 2025 so this is a bet on some sort of short term follow-through (i.e., if it closes above 2020 and VIX drops under 20). Oil is at least pausing; and the upmarket despite Paris shootings lends mild optimisim. Of course, anything can happen - but only one thing will.
Click to expand...

Amoeba, anything within a 5% move (from a high or low) is market noise. The entire 'correction' in the S&P500 has been about 4%. Anyway, we might go up a point today - which you missed - and we might go down a point and a half tomorrow - which you would get - but shouldn't you have something in equities at almost all times since the market growth centers at about 10% for any given year. Timing the market in a retirement account that gives you two trades a month on market noise blips is a folly. You have to expand your loss points quite a bit to gain from equities. All you are doing is churning. Adding risk and getting 'G Fund' returns.
 
Re: amoeba's account talk

Boghie said:
Amoeba, anything within a 5% move (from a high or low) is market noise. The entire 'correction' in the S&P500 has been about 4%. Anyway, we might go up a point today - which you missed - and we might go down a point and a half tomorrow - which you would get - but shouldn't you have something in equities at almost all times since the market growth centers at about 10% for any given year. Timing the market in a retirement account that gives you two trades a month on market noise blips is a folly. You have to expand your loss points quite a bit to gain from equities. All you are doing is churning. Adding risk and getting 'G Fund' returns.
Click to expand...

Boghie's assessment sounds harsh, but is spot on. There are different strategies (diversified distribution between funds, all in, DCA) but with one effective transfer (in/out) per month, a person has to minimize the transfers they do in reaction to moves/news events. The only way to harvest gains with this type of system is to stay "in" a high proportion of the time. Stepping "out" once a month to avoid risk results in being out for the remainder of the month, and often in that time there is a corresponding swing upwards to above the step out point that exceeds the magnitude of the losses that were avoided. Then, a person is forced to re-buy at greater cost than they sold out on, with the result of sidestepping gains. Simply holding through the fluctuations would result in higher long term gain, at the expense of having to ignore the shorter term, but un-realized losses through the dip. If you don't sell, it's not a loss, just a paperwork value dip.

I find I have been much more able to reap gains by trying to stay in the market as much as possible, taking profits when there are substantial gains that appear to exceed the long term trend, and then rebuying when a substantial pullback results in a 2% or greater reduction in buy price from when I sold out. If volatility doesn't appear predictable enough to identify clearly overbought and oversold conditions, I stay in by default.

Works for me, and I know there's other strategies that work for others.

dave
 
Re: amoeba's account talk

I feel pretty good about the last 2 months and this January. I've turned myself around a bit here lately so hope it continues. Thanks for your comments anyways.
 
Re: amoeba's account talk

Those who track my moves will be noticing that I've been trying to pick bottoms with a smaller first move then following through with a larger second one if I'm right. I've been successful the last two dips; actually was also successful on the one before that (October 15, 2014) - but chickened out on a mid-day tail that was the rock bottom. More than a few of us watch big cap (SPY) volume as an indicator of upward drift (it seems to be selling disinterest). There are days of conviction buying - today might have been such a day at 147M SPY, but not always. And - myself and others watch the ^VIX in relation to its 20,50, and 200 EMAs (the latter hasn't been recaptured truely since about December 5, 2014); before that was a nice span of low volatilty updrift. Not quite there yet - watch for 2 or more days of a ^VIX under 15. Not quite there. Still considerable risk. I hope I won't be blamed if - since I'm now in 70% - I start locking in profits (rather than my usual losses). Oil may have turned before rock bottom, which can contribute to upward drift. Tomorrow could go either way, I plan to keep my computer OFF and go fishing early.
 
I did catch alot of fish:

No so great of a plan market-wise, however; geewhiz - - - can't even recapture ^VIX of 15 on a friday; with non-outlier jobs report and beats on consumer confidence. And selling volume picked up near the close. Did not see that coming. Have some F-fund stashed away in case this goes south.

Not the way I wanted to start out the year. But could be worse - - - there are alot more negative numbers in the tracker besides mine.
 
amoeba said:
I did catch alot of fish:

No so great of a plan market-wise, however; geewhiz - - - can't even recapture ^VIX of 15 on a friday; with non-outlier jobs report and beats on consumer confidence. And selling volume picked up near the close. Did not see that coming. Have some F-fund stashed away in case this goes south.

Not the way I wanted to start out the year. But could be worse - - - there are alot more negative numbers in the tracker besides mine.
Click to expand...

Amoeba,

Each of those members with negative returns in the first 6 trading days of the year can easily go positive quickly. You are actually in a risky allocation as we speak. Quicken has it at a 6%/10% (including 3% inflation it would be 9%/10%). That is a very good allocation for growth. You have to be in to win - but can you handle a 5% - 7% 'crash' without bailing to 100% G/F? If not, you have to take some risk off the table because a 5% move is market noise. I mean, you have already burned your 2 IFTs for January and the S&P500 is only down -0.63%. You have attained Alpha of 0.57% over the past 6 days but if you bail again that Alpha will vanish if the S&P500 grows by a point while you sit in G/F. The entire year so far has been market noise.
 
Of course: I either will deserve the latest commentary, or maybe not. The creep on the ^VIX 200 EMA apparently hasn't gone un-noticed, although it coincides precisely with the decline in oil. This is still a tough one to call.....2,025 still held up today, and still there's an even chance of at least moving up another 1-1.5% within this month (~2,045-2,060).
Oil got creamed today again....intermediate prognosis is not good; I trimmed my position - but still maintain nearly 40% in the market.

I'm still learning - - - - trying a few things here and there. This triple peak in volatility has me puzzled; haven't seen something like this in awhile.
 
And - - - BTW - - - I don't consider a VIX>20 "noise"; especially if it hasn't seen below 15 since Christmas. Something different is going on here....I'm not sure what. I attempted to trim on what looked like a sure big up-day and turnaround - only to see it fade flat in the afternoon. On big selling volume.

I will be looking, hoping, for the SPY to recapture it's 50 EMA, and if not - if the 20 EMA stays above it (it didn't in October). If it does - - - look out below. If it doesn't - - - I will be hearing more deserved "toldyaso's" about my hit and run strategy.
 
amoeba said:
And - - - BTW - - - I don't consider a VIX>20 "noise"; especially if it hasn't seen below 15 since Christmas. Something different is going on here....I'm not sure what. I attempted to trim on what looked like a sure big up-day and turnaround - only to see it fade flat in the afternoon. On big selling volume.

I will be looking, hoping, for the SPY to recapture it's 50 EMA, and if not - if the 20 EMA stays above it (it didn't in October). If it does - - - look out below. If it doesn't - - - I will be hearing more deserved "toldyaso's" about my hit and run strategy.
Click to expand...

Sorry about the garbled message: what I was looking at is if the SPY 20 EMA crosses the 50 EMA - and for more than 2 days - that is trouble and if it happens the SPY price will likely approach or fall below the October low. And one more thing: this has NOT HAPPENED YET FOR ONE DAY THIS CYCLE. But it is very close...so....either stick with your strategy or choose another one.

That means this is still a risk on bet for those with guts to stomach a little more loss (1-2%); and for a rise of 2-3% in short order (2,040-2,055). Now - I am making the bet that the bottom (if this isn't it right now, which is a distinct possibility) won't be reached quickly; allowing me to at least catch part of the upswing in early February.

This best describes my 2015 so far: "confused"
 
Anyone notice the little smile at the end of today's trading chart...

Those smiles are the only thing that seems to work for me. The charts have been frowning and smirking for a while. It is nice to see them smile. But, I don't know if I can survive the point and a half collapse this year. The end is near!!!

Uh, yeah, if I am invested in equities I can stomach another point or two in devastating losses. You have to. Anything less than about 5 points is market noise. The decision after 5 points is whether to invest or to bail - but till we hit about 7% losses it is really all noise...
 
Re: amoeba's account talk

Trade looks to be short early into the weekend; I'm surprised there hasn't yet been a move towards former resistance in the SPY (2,025). 9 of last 11 negative days (in sets of 4 and 5 consecutive down days) is wearing. Any bounce needs to be viewed with caution at this point.

Perhaps US equities are being repriced generally.
 
I was thinking a bounce on Friday but it is a Holiday. Crazy EU infighting might make it 5 of 6 tomorrow.

Holiday weekend that is.
 
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20EMA on the ^VIX is just short of last October's high; and the market isn't really hasn't sold off that much and volume - while elevated - isn't near October levels; what the heck? What ever happened to those rebounds? If this goes on much longer - I may be able to buy into it (February).

So many down days; just look at those bond yield moves. Who wuddathunkit?
 
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