amoeba's Account Talk

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Re: Free Lunch returns week continues

For some reason i had to look at the auto tracker and saw amoeba making a move. I really am wondering if amoeba is trying to come out at 0% on the ct autotracker but in reality must be doing something else entirely.

i feel like an intervention is needed.
 
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Re: Free Lunch returns week continues

Amoeba,

Can I strongly recommend Brian Wesbury at 'First Trust Economics Blog'.

This is his review of 2013 (against projection), and his projections for 2014...

You have spent half a decade under-performing the market as measured against the S&P500. Now, it may make sense to not use that index as a measure - but you are not even matching inflation. Your TSP account is actually worth significantly less than cash in a mattress. I happen to agree that we are getting kinda bubbly - and I have lost potential earnings this year because of that - but gaining +0.10% in a +30% market is not using risk analysis. I don't know what it is using. You gotta have more faith in greedy corporatist pigs trying to take you cash out of your wallet than you do. Oh, well...
 
Re: Free Lunch returns week continues

Amoeba,

I am listening to Ric Edelman's show this morning. There are some amazing statistics regarding the DOW's performance this year:

DOW: +22%

Number of positive days: 146
Number of negative days: 106

Average growth on positive days: +76 points
Average decline on negative days: -71 points​

Now, how can you market time based on those statistics. There were only 40 more positive days out of 252 total days than negative days. The negative days left you with +5 points. Statistically, 2013 should have been almost a wash - but it gained more than 22%. You made 51 trades in 2013. Thus, you traded on 20% of the possible trading days in the year. And, you swung for the walls in almost all of them.

Some on this site seem to be able to swing. I cannot, so I don't. At least with 100% of my savings. I will swing - with my own analysis and with the analysis of others on this site - but only with about 20% of my holdings. My hope is that those trades lead to some alpha. My goal is to be found in the AT Top Quintile while reducing risk compared to the S&P500. I fail often (see this year:embarrest:), but my 10 year average return is 9.88%, my 10 year average risk is 11.19%, and my 10 year CAGR is 9.31%. There are others with better numbers and most of those folks swing. So, I could start swinging - but I know I don't have that skill so I don't. Thus, I play the alpha edge. Therefore, the top of the AT will never be mine, but I will not be on the bottom.

Can I be so forward as to recommend a stable allocation you can live with (through the highs and the lows) for about 80% of you holdings. Then swing with the remaining 20% to get some alpha. My guess is that you will find yourself in the top two quintiles every year. Maybe the top quintile:)
 
Re: Free Lunch returns week continues

Well some folks are destined to be just happy and content with their defined benefit retirement plan. There is a reason we have some income inequality in this country. If one cannot assume any risks then it's the status quo that wins with reduced opportunity. That's just the way it is.
 
Positive!!!

Contrary to JTH's assertion, I was up for 2013 - and - in 2014, already beating that return:

I threw a nickel (5%) into S-fund today (1/23/14); which appears to be accelerating downward in the last 2 hours - we'll see what happens at the close; typically - these downward spikes have been in the 3 day (or at least 3/5 day) variety - accompanied by VIX >16, but not the last dip.

That's all for now.
 
Re: Positive!!!

amoeba said:
Contrary to JTH's assertion, I was up for 2013 - and - in 2014, already beating that return:

I threw a nickel (5%) into S-fund today (1/23/14); which appears to be accelerating downward in the last 2 hours - we'll see what happens at the close; typically - these downward spikes have been in the 3 day (or at least 3/5 day) variety - accompanied by VIX >16, but not the last dip.

That's all for now.
Click to expand...


Another day - another story - my tiptoe approach evinced a lack of conviction; I can only marvel with astonishment at how poorly timed my moves - even the small ones - have been.

I am starting with a few new principles this year - whether any of them will work better - remains to be seen. One of those is to not buy on an up day - nor sell on a down day....so notwithstanding the losses today (and the spector of further losses - as much as 5% x .05 = 0.25%); I am remaining in because of the 4+ trading days left in the month and the limited IFT's. If I can catch an inflection in the top of the ^VIX, 20-day EMA, and triple or quadruple down on that next thursday or friday, I could still catch an upward wave to start out february, exit, and get back in.

Second, I am watching the VIX top and bottom inflections more closely, as these have been accurate (in the last year).

Third, I will likely demonstrate more move patience - particularly when as here - in a bull market; the dips have recovered within 2 months (and usually much less).

Fourth, I will probably limit larger moves (into the market) - to prices at below the 50 EMA - and sometimes below the 200 EMA.

Anyway - I haven't been able to break my string of bad moves. Truely remarkable.....if none of the above works better, I may try a random number table.
 
Re: Positive!!!

I like the new approach. There will most likely be some nice surprises in 2014 that will push the indexes to new all time highs.
 
Re: Positive!!!

amoeba said:
Another day - another story - my tiptoe approach evinced a lack of conviction; I can only marvel with astonishment at how poorly timed my moves - even the small ones - have been.

I am starting with a few new principles this year - whether any of them will work better - remains to be seen. One of those is to not buy on an up day - nor sell on a down day....so notwithstanding the losses today (and the spector of further losses - as much as 5% x .05 = 0.25%); I am remaining in because of the 4+ trading days left in the month and the limited IFT's. If I can catch an inflection in the top of the ^VIX, 20-day EMA, and triple or quadruple down on that next thursday or friday, I could still catch an upward wave to start out february, exit, and get back in.

Second, I am watching the VIX top and bottom inflections more closely, as these have been accurate (in the last year).

Third, I will likely demonstrate more move patience - particularly when as here - in a bull market; the dips have recovered within 2 months (and usually much less).

Fourth, I will probably limit larger moves (into the market) - to prices at below the 50 EMA - and sometimes below the 200 EMA.

Anyway - I haven't been able to break my string of bad moves. Truely remarkable.....if none of the above works better, I may try a random number table.
Click to expand...

I am gloriously negative for this year!!! And, who cares. I cannot even tell the difference between a +0.16% return and a -0.11% return. But today might expand on things a bit:toung:.

You cannot worry about losing a quarter of one percent. Expand your loss horizon a bit and you will be able to sustain your sanity during the noise.
 
SPY support fails....

Yick:

Some large volume, last half-hour, sells are pushing the SPY towards and perhaps south of 1,790 today. Very high volume for a friday. No idea what is coming next. Perhaps the weekend, or large cap earnings report early next week, will settle things down.

If not - I'll look to buy in more - at whatever lower support level is reached, if before end of month.
 
Re: SPY support fails....

amoeba said:
Yick:

Some large volume, last half-hour, sells are pushing the SPY towards and perhaps south of 1,790 today. Very high volume for a friday. No idea what is coming next. Perhaps the weekend, or large cap earnings report early next week, will settle things down.

If not - I'll look to buy in more - at whatever lower support level is reached, if before end of month.
Click to expand...

Let it fall and definitely buy in. You don't have to find a bottom. Just buy on sale.

Now, if the market moves steadily downward past a marker - say 10% to 15% - then start bailing out. Till then this is either market noise (probably blather about China and/or Argentina) or a buyable correction. Till it is in full correction than it is a sit pat or buy in opportunity...
 
Re: SPY support fails....

Boghie said:
Let it fall and definitely buy in. You don't have to find a bottom. Just buy on sale.

Now, if the market moves steadily downward past a marker - say 10% to 15% - then start bailing out. Till then this is either market noise (probably blather about China and/or Argentina) or a buyable correction. Till it is in full correction than it is a sit pat or buy in opportunity...
Click to expand...

Perhaps more than noise, but nonetheless, two days does not constitute a market reversal; still well above the 200 EMA (~1,703) and nowhere near correction territory (~1,650), and beyond that, much farther from a death cross (which has occurred ~3X in last five years, and did not portend a reversal then either). I will look for a third consecutive down day (or 3 of five) and as said earlier, a turn in the 20-EMA VIX, for additional buy-in, possibly as high as 20% stake.

I'll probably wait out any quiet days - if there are any - next week.
 
Re: Positive!!!

There is much noise around these days from Dems about income inequality - TSP provides many an excellent opportunity to enhance financial security while working and making contributions. However, there is risk and the 401K investor has to be proactive - even our friend amoeba has finally come to that realization - may he prosper.
 
Amoeba, Watch Out!!!!!!!!!!!!

Amoeba, watch out...

(Reuters) - Consumer confidence dropped in January to its lowest level in more than a year as Americans were more pessimistic about the economic outlook and their financial prospects, according to a private sector report released on Tuesday.
...​
The expectations index tumbled to its lowest level since October 2011 at 59.5 from 68.1. The present situation index slipped to 57.3 from 64.6.
...​
Consumers expected higher price increases with expectations for inflation in the coming 12 months rising to 5.7 percent from 5.6 percent.
Click to expand...

Ah, hell, that was an article from last year. So embarrassing...

Sorry man. S&P500 for 2013 +32.42% (with dividend reinvestment). Inflation +1.47%.

:toung:
 
Holding my breath:

I indeed am holding my breath on this move:

Noting the EMA's on the SPY, the MOST that the 50-EMA has been violated over the last year was two weeks (in August 2013); and today will mark only two days - if I'm lucky; the bottom will form before the end of month.

I'm not expecting too much further fall this week; perhaps 1,755-1,765 or so. Could be a bit lower - but I hope not - I would like to have a clearer buy signal before next month.

Today's trading had more heavy selling at the close....an unusual daily roller coaster for a change. ^VIX settled around 17.
 
High volatilty on reduced volume

I cut my losses this tuesday on JTH's analysis of 2/3 chance of upday following friday-monday consecutive downdays; noting that the uptick was below his expectation of 1%+. This might have looked premature based on today, but volatility spiked high at the close (~17) on reduced volume (~113m SPYs).

I'm therefore expecting another leg down to begin next month - and will continue to note the 20 EMA on the VIX to see when it inflects. There have been some significant largecap moves - e.g., AAPL and associated suppliers - which don't look bouncable at the moment.

This is a hard one to call.
 
Re: High volatilty on reduced volume

amoeba said:
I cut my losses this tuesday on JTH's analysis of 2/3 chance of upday following friday-monday consecutive downdays; noting that the uptick was below his expectation of 1%+. This might have looked premature based on today, but volatility spiked high at the close (~17) on reduced volume (~113m SPYs).

I'm therefore expecting another leg down to begin next month - and will continue to note the 20 EMA on the VIX to see when it inflects. There have been some significant largecap moves - e.g., AAPL and associated suppliers - which don't look bouncable at the moment.

This is a hard one to call.
Click to expand...

Missed the bounce, eh...

Don't know what tomorrow will bring though. Hard to stomach a 5% loss on 5% of ones assets. That something like losing 0.25% of ones assets. At crappy 'G Fund' returns that will take you a month to recover. Grinding poverty...
 
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