amoeba's Account Talk

[Boghie]

Re: volume rising, but not sustained; vix moderate - remember the alamo (last sept-oc

Amoeba,

You have been no less than 50% out of the market since the end of the last downturn on 2011/11/23. Till March of this year you were no less than 80% out of the market. On March 13th you allocated 50% your holdings to C/S/I. By March 23 you were 100% out of equities - a good move.

If you are nearing retirement and approaching 60 years old those allocations make some sense.

Otherwise, what is your key on getting back into the market in a meaningful way? How are you going to attain at least some of the gains in equities when the rebound (V or otherwise) happens? The biggest gains happen in the first week or so when everybody thinks its a head fake.

Those little 20% equity holdings don't give enough opportunity for growth to balance the increased risk - unless you are nearing retirement with a sizable nest egg.

By the way, I agree that now is not the time to 'market time' back in. But, since I do not know when the market will rebound I will have a conservative allocation - but not an empty and useless one...

 

[ILoveTDs]

Re: volume rising, but not sustained; vix moderate - remember the alamo (last sept-oc

Before anyone get's real excited about buying:
look at the volume/volatility for 9/16-10/30, 2011, during the last bottoming session; and the situation was similar as it concerns europe (if not worse now).

320 million SPY, sure. but that's one day. and the vix is ~ 25; with the 20 crossing the 50 EMA.

Last time that happened, it wasn't an instantaneous V-shaped bottom (those V's CAN happen, as was the case on the tsunami sell, but this - I believe - ain't that).....and took some time to shake out.

TSP-wise - if you saved your IFT's like me, you could average in on the end of may- early june.

OR - you could wait......

I had my 2 IFT and average in COB Friday. Hope Monday is good.

 

[amoeba]

Re: volume rising, but not sustained; vix moderate - remember the alamo (last sept-oc

Not so sure about that ILove:

The fluctuations at the bottom are hard to catch.....usually you need 2-3 days of big volume before you see a bounce......and the markets are still way above the fall lows, so we'll see.

I say no. Another 2-3% down this week, and that's being optimistic; since there's nothing to be optimistic about other than alot of bottom fishers buying for no good reason. That should limit losses.

The daily pattern.....open high and sell off, or build to noon high and sell off at the close, are getting regular.

 

[ILoveTDs]

We'll see what Monday brings.

 

[Handballer]

Re: volume rising, but not sustained; vix moderate - remember the alamo (last sept-oc

Not so sure about that ILove:

The fluctuations at the bottom are hard to catch.....usually you need 2-3 days of big volume before you see a bounce......and the markets are still way above the fall lows, so we'll see.

I say no. Another 2-3% down this week, and that's being optimistic....

The daily pattern.....open high and sell off, or build to noon high and sell off at the close, are getting regular.

Get outt here. Beg your pardon, its your thread.

 

[Boghie]

Re: volume rising, but not sustained; vix moderate - remember the alamo (last sept-oc

Well,

Was today the start of a recovery, or a head fake...
Only time will tell, but the 50% I have in equities means I participated in the gains...

Yea!!!

 

[ILoveTDs]

We'll see what Monday brings.

Well monday was good and I'm back out, 2% for this month is enough for me. Good luck amoeba.

 

[WhoDey]

Well monday was good and I'm back out, 2% for this month is enough for me. Good luck amoeba.

Nice play ... unfortunately/fortunately (time will tell!), I'm entering the market as you're exiting.

 

[amoeba]

Re: volume rising, but not sustained; vix moderate - remember the alamo (last sept-oc

Not so sure about that ILove:

The fluctuations at the bottom are hard to catch.....usually you need 2-3 days of big volume before you see a bounce......and the markets are still way above the fall lows, so we'll see.

I say no. Another 2-3% down this week, and that's being optimistic; since there's nothing to be optimistic about other than alot of bottom fishers buying for no good reason. That should limit losses.

The daily pattern.....open high and sell off, or build to noon high and sell off at the close, are getting regular.

OK - that was yesterday, this is today; the daily pattern quoted above broke; volumed lightened up - on a monday following a big-volume friday, no less; sellers disappeared, for the moment. Nothing in the pre-market to indicate today's action....as for the TSP movers, most IFT's were moving in at the close.

I could turn tail and say downside risk is militated by the prospect of a favorable durable goods number later this week, but to be honest; after today - I'm shooting with a blindfold. This week is a real fooler. Anything could happen.

 

[amoeba]

end of month risk IFT made

I put about 22% each in S- and C-, and 44% into F-fund today:

My hope here is that all of the above will be positive for the rest of the week, and even if F-fund declines further (it's running red 2-3 days now), that equities are going to oscillate against it, so maybe I'll end up positive. Forecast for the durables is optimistic, and I'm hoping it will follow the home sales moderate surprise - I guess a house is sort of like a durable good. The last few days of May are biased positive (and the rest of the month is not), so I may hold out or double down for that.

Or, fall flat on my face, which would be about 9 IFT moves (major ones, not counting the 10% in this Feb) in a row dating back a year ago with the Egypt move. One of these days.......I'll get back on track. Hopefully tomorrow.

 

[Handballer]

Re: end of month risk IFT made

I put about 22% each in S- and C-, and 44% into F-fund today:

My hope here is that all of the above will be positive for the rest of the week, and even if F-fund declines further (it's running red 2-3 days now), that equities are going to oscillate against it, so maybe I'll end up positive. Forecast for the durables is optimistic, and I'm hoping it will follow the home sales moderate surprise - I guess a house is sort of like a durable good. The last few days of May are biased positive (and the rest of the month is not), so I may hold out or double down for that.

Or, fall flat on my face, which would be about 9 IFT moves (major ones, not counting the 10% in this Feb) in a row dating back a year ago with the Egypt move. One of these days.......I'll get back on track. Hopefully tomorrow.

I for one would like to see you gain a percent or two this week with the C and S funds. But things don't look good for more gains that soon.

 

[amoeba]

low-volume-end-of-month-friday-before-holiday, I suspect large non-participatory move

I for one would like to see you gain a percent or two this week with the C and S funds. But things don't look good for more gains that soon.

Well - had a lower intraday low, but closed up, which is where I lightened up on C and S to 14% each, in lieu of F-fund, which I'm hoping will continue.

The end-of-month-friday-before-a-holiday, trade, has often been a sharp move......I pulled in ~.37% today, which is about a third of my year-to-date. I may wait it out, bail out of equities on any big gain, or carry it over.

Will see how this all works out. Anyway, it's gratifying finally beating the G-fund. I'm almost up to rank #500 in the tracker. Yay.

 

[Handballer]

Re: low-volume-end-of-month-friday-before-holiday, I suspect large non-participatory

Well - had a lower intraday low, but closed up, which is where I lightened up on C and S to 14% each, in lieu of F-fund, which I'm hoping will continue.

The end-of-month-friday-before-a-holiday, trade, has often been a sharp move......I pulled in ~.37% today, which is about a third of my year-to-date. I may wait it out, bail out of equities on any big gain, or carry it over.

Will see how this all works out. Anyway, it's gratifying finally beating the G-fund. I'm almost up to rank #500 in the tracker. Yay.

Better watch out I'm only about 370 behind you.:notrust:

 

[amoeba]

going short into weekend - risk trade worked - another coming up next wk!!!

Today is another one of those wierd days when all of the funds may be positive, expect light volume:

So - out with those profits I say!!!! Yeah....its 0.3%.....but good for me

The only catch is if the F-fund share price reflects the AGG today (up), which it does over time exactly, but sometimes not on a daily basis......76%G, 20%F, and 4%C at COB today.

Those with real gutz - will hold out, or even put money in, before next weeks jobs report - the last was a huge disappointment - and anything short of a surprise will be sold.....and if it does surprise.....will a news rally hold for any more than the rest of the week?

Anyway - I'm done and sitting on the sidelines until ~5/5/11 or thereafter.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: going short into weekend - risk trade worked - another coming up next wk!!!

Consumer sentiment came in at 79.3 for May -the best since 10/07. Maybe more folks are finding jobs.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Re: going short into weekend - risk trade worked - another coming up next wk!!!

Anyway - I'm done and sitting on the sidelines until ~5/5/11 or thereafter.

?????

 

[amoeba]

Re: going short into weekend - risk trade worked - another coming up next wk!!!

?????

I mean a risk trade for those who want it.........we will have large volume, seasonal end of may positive, against a jobs report that was decidedly missed negative last month.......could be a big gain, or a big loss, for whoever has their IFT's, or TSP in the C/S funds already. Not me.....I'm done for the month

And - the F-fund share price rat-F'd me - so I was slightly down instead of up on friday close. Oh well, I know that happens.

Anyone in the I-fund is so toasted that they must just lenjoy beating themselves in the face with the claw end of a hammer - in front of a mirror.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: going short into weekend - risk trade worked - another coming up next wk!!!

Sarah on TOMB pulled her group out of the I Fund last fall after many years in it and went to the S Fund. I think she's still in F now, with you.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: going short into weekend - risk trade worked - another coming up next wk!!!

If we get any hint of a QE3 coming our way the I fund will explode - it has a lot of catching up to do. I'll hold my 80% position.

 

[amoeba]

You feel lucky?

If we get any hint of a QE3 coming our way the I fund will explode.

Get outta here, birch.....with interest rates this low.....QE can't be effective (other than to falsely effect sentiment).....and euro's don't givadamn about what goes on here.

Your I-fund is burnt toast - but there could be something left in this bear flag before it - and the other equity funds to a lessor extent - head south once again. May be some money to be made, or saved, this month.