amoeba's Account Talk

[Mapper]

Re: post super tuesday deadcat?

Why This Friday's Jobs Report Could Blow Past 300,000

R2 of 0.875 for the data, and time period, used is actually quite impressive, especially given the volatility (std. devs) in the non-farm payrolls number. Hope the relationship holds. I like seeing analysis of FRED data.

Edit: Must add that the aforementioned std. dev. of the nfpayrolls number means that the corresponding new claims number could fall into a fairly large range before breaking the strength of the inverse relationship. Purely from a trending perspective, it looks promising.

 

[amoeba]

20 EMA's holding at mid-day 3/29/31

3rd day or so of decline:

I could hardly have mis-timed my IFT's any worse; picking the middle of the cliff-drop in bond prices as I was 90% in, then tried to limit damage by going 50% stocks, then those prices give way; so I pare back thinking this was the top (down to 15% stocks), but it wasn't - they recover monday and I am gone to G fund...

All that for a 0.4% loss.....I'd be whining, but now stocks are reaching the first thresh-hold; the 20 EMA. These are holding for the moment; and it's really not much to worry about (either selling or buying into), until it stays below the 20 EMA for 2-3 days.

The news is cooling - missed home sales (less), missed job claims (more), returning concerns on europe (S&P concern over Greece, other countries to follow - Spain, Portugal). None of this is urgent, but a couple more numbers of job claims, or confirming signs of slowing growth in China, who knows?

All that could be just as easily set aside. In any case, when our tracker gets lopsided with S-funder/no IFT-ers leading the pack; it hasn't stayed that way very long.

 

[Boghie]

Re: 20 EMA's holding at mid-day 3/29/31

Wow Amoeba, just wow...

I think you have to accept a 0.4% loss to be in the F/C/S/I Funds. If you cannot accept less than a half of one percent loss in a month you probably should not be in any funds with risk. Yowser.

Anyway, the 'F Fund' is probably the riskiest one out there right now. At least as far as expectations. Folks think that bonds will not lose money. Time to find out!!!

 

[amoeba]

Highs of the year in all funds have already been put in.

Wow Amoeba, just wow...

I think you have to accept a 0.4% loss to be in the F/C/S/I Funds. If you cannot accept less than a half of one percent loss in a month you probably should not be in any funds with risk. Yowser.

Anyway, the 'F Fund' is probably the riskiest one out there right now. At least as far as expectations. Folks think that bonds will not lose money. Time to find out!!!

Or, I could have stayed in, and bulked up that loss to 2.5% as of today. There was nothing to presage F-fund falling off the table like it did. Just bad timing. There's nothing to indicate risk. What the heck are you basing that on? You think equities at 2 years high are going to go up more is a sure bet? I don't think so.

To the contrary, I'll make the bold statement that we have already seen the highs of the year in all of the equity funds. There will be money to be made, but to do so you will need to time it. Just like the last 12 years. Leave it in and do nothing = you make nothing.

I have plenty of experience in losing money.

 

[OBGibby]

Re: Highs of the year in all funds have already been put in.

...I have plenty of experience in losing money.

Damn, I thought I was the only one.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Highs of the year in all funds have already been put in.

Amoeba,

You are not giving yourself a chance to gain any return. Here are the March returns:
.

C Fund

WTD: +0.86
MTD: +3.30​

Amoeba Fund

WTD: +0.27
MTD: -0.36​

.
We all miss market moves. But if we are not in an absolute 2008 style collapse than you have to keep some assets in C/S/I to catch some of the gains that happen in equities funds. Holdings in the F are supposed to cushion losses in C/S/I. The G Fund is there if you want a second Social Security check to buy a better cut of Alpo in retirement. Less facetiously, the 'G Fund' can be used by market timers.

You have not had an effective holding in C/S/I since March 21. In fact, you were only in equities in a meaningful manner from March 15 through March 16. That is two days. You are not timing the market because you are never in the market. In fact, those two days were the only two days you have been in the market this year. Yowser.

Nobody sees the ‘F Fund’ in a bubble? Many on this board do, many that I listen to think bonds are in a bubble, many that I read as well. When interest rates go up the bubble will pop – excepting an event like 2008 where everyone runs to safety. And, yes I have 20% in that bubbly drink. Why, because I have 65% in C/S/I and I don’t think I can time markets. And, a 10% haircut in my 20% ‘F Fund’ holding will only affect my assets by 2%. My sole ‘market timing’ move is the 15% in the ‘G Fund’. I am waiting for the normal summer swoon to buy back in. In fact, I will probably increase that holding to 25% in a week or two.

May I recommend a 50% holding in the ‘G Fund’ while market timing the remaining 50% in the C/S/I? A 20% haircut in C/S/I will then affect your holdings by less than 10%, but will give you some upside. That would give you a chance at an expected 3-4% return, and one that would compound to your benefit.

 

[KevinD]

Re: Highs of the year in all funds have already been put in.

The Story Nobody Wants to Hear

By James J Puplava CFP 03/14/2012

The Story Nobody Wants to Hear | James J Puplava CFP | FINANCIAL SENSE

 

[amoeba]

while we are giving out free advice, here's mine......

Omigod:

I just passed on the opportunity to lose another 2% by the second trading day of this month. Woe is me. I'm not chasing a four-year high....

While we are giving each other free advice on distribution, here's mine:

Buy on the big dip -that is, AFTER the normal correction to come soon - meaning 10% - from the high, which I already called at 1410. So I shall further call this intermediate bottom buying opportunity around 1,275 - 1,330.

 

[Bquat]

Re: while we are giving out free advice, here's mine......

Omigod:

I just passed on the opportunity to lose another 2% by the second trading day of this month. Woe is me. I'm not chasing a four-year high....

While we are giving each other free advice on distribution, here's mine:

Buy on the big dip -that is, AFTER the normal correction to come soon - meaning 10% - from the high, which I already called at 1410. So I shall further call this intermediate bottom buying opportunity around 1,275 - 1,330.

Can I call 1365?

 

[amoeba]

Re: Highs of the year in all funds have already been put in.

But the lows have NOT:

To quote another member of this board - "patience and wisdom" - you need both. Still waiting for the neckline to form.....

Who knows? maybe I'll even crack into the top 800 of this board. yee haw.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Highs of the year in all funds have already been put in.

Decent volume and breadth (mostly down) for a friday. I'm not seeing a pattern anymore....big up and down days.....volume intermediate (nothing like last Nov-Dec), and sitting just above the 50 EMA on the SPY. Cannot tell if this is resistence, and if so, upside or down. Will wait on another job claims, spanish bond auctions, next week. Earnings are always understated so they will be beat 70% of the time so I'm not reading anything into it. AAPL showing a small pause/falter (not sure what gives).

Last words - last hour may be telling.....

 

[amoeba]

Re: Highs of the year in all funds have already been put in.

Decent volume and breadth (mostly down) for a friday. I'm not seeing a pattern anymore....big up and down days.....volume intermediate (nothing like last Nov-Dec), and sitting just above the 50 EMA on the SPY. Cannot tell if this is resistence, and if so, upside or down. Will wait on another job claims, spanish bond auctions, next week. Earnings are always understated so they will be beat 70% of the time so I'm not reading anything into it. AAPL showing a small pause/falter (not sure what gives).

Last words - last hour may be telling.....

Well who in C-fund feels warm and fuzzy all over after today? Telling indeed, telling me to stay away next week.

Still looking for a signficantly lower number to buy back in. May I see 1,330 or less....Please???

 

[amoeba]

Re: Highs of the year in all funds have already been put in.

Well who in C-fund feels warm and fuzzy all over after today? Telling indeed, telling me to stay away next week.

Still looking for a signficantly lower number to buy back in. May I see 1,330 or less....Please???

Judging by the futures (at the moment, 10am PDT, 4/15/12) it appears I asked and I will receive this, soon.

A bit more patience......time for the milkman to catch up.

 

[MaStA]

Re: Highs of the year in all funds have already been put in.

Judging by the futures (at the moment, 10am PDT, 4/15/12) it appears I asked and I will receive this, soon.

A bit more patience......time for the milkman to catch up.

Are futures even updated yet? If so, what site are you looking at to see these futures?

 

[imike023]

Judging by the futures (at the moment, 10am PDT, 4/15/12) it appears I asked and I will receive this, soon.

A bit more patience......time for the milkman to catch up.

Are futures even updated yet? If so, what site are you looking at to see these futures?

I usually look at the bloomberg website they normally have it. Hasn't been updated since the 13th but it will in a couple of hours once markets open overseas. Doesn't look good for Monday.

 

[MaStA]

I usually look at the bloomberg website they normally have it. Hasn't been updated since the 13th but it will in a couple of hours once markets open overseas. Doesn't look good for Monday.

That is the same site I use as well, but since it is from the 13th currently I thought those were some numbers from when the market was open on the 13th. Maybe not...if those are the futures my TZA shares will be blazing on Monday. Maybe I should of bought more lol.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Re: if he had another IFT - here's what the "full retard" would do.....

Trading Hours: Futures & Options

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: if he had another IFT - here's what the "full retard" would do.....

try using:
ForexPros.com

Specifically:
Advanced S&P 500 Futures Charts | S&P 500 Futures Live Chart

 

[amoeba]

That is the same site I use as well, but since it is from the 13th currently I thought those were some numbers from when the market was open on the 13th. Maybe not...if those are the futures my TZA shares will be blazing on Monday. Maybe I should of bought more lol.

You are right....that is from last friday....I watched the pre-market closely and futures were down, then up, the market opened high, flopped, came back, and near the close now (~4:50 pm EDT), is slightly negative. Spanish bond yields cresting 6%......^VIX approaching 20 again.

I'm surprised at the modest reaction....this looks like alot of optimism going into the rest of the week.....thanks all for the futures links/info.

 

[MaStA]

You are right....that is from last friday....I watched the pre-market closely and futures were down, then up, the market opened high, flopped, came back, and near the close now (~4:50 pm EDT), is slightly negative. Spanish bond yields cresting 6%......^VIX approaching 20 again.

I'm surprised at the modest reaction....this looks like alot of optimism going into the rest of the week.....thanks all for the futures links/info.

Yeah today has been very strange indeed. I'm holding onto my 100 shares of TZA for now and will see how the next couple of days play out.