amoeba's Account Talk

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No evidence of long term buying

Boghie said:
Amoeba,

Two things are probably happening...
  1. Investment houses are probably buying equities slowly. They want to invest after a 16% - 20% correction. That is, buying the dip. Bad news is not affecting the market, thus da'Boyz have a positive sentiment.
  2. Long term investors and retirement account managers are looking six to nine months out. It is becoming a common belief that President Obama is on the ropes. They are discounting a Reagan Revolution.
The only problem is that we are sitting mid-September. September and October are notorious bad months for equities investing. However, we have already had a correction - and, gubmint bonds are in an obvious bubble. Ride the bubble or risk September/October investing, that is the question.

Just thoughts.

Not everybody plays two day trades.

And we cannot even play a trade once a week.
Click to expand...

Nope to those thoughts....if that were true it would show up on net inflows into stock index funds and that's not happening; the latest data are from the last week and it could have changed but inflow/outflows generally don't turn on a dime. (http://etfdb.com/2011/august-etf-stats-keeping-the-winning-streak-alive-just-barely/)
 
what happened at 3 pm today?

Light trading, but someone just dumped a sizable load of SPY,QQQQ etc., producing another 0.5%+ gap down:

Does anyone know what caused this? It seems to a bit after the FED comments so maybe something else.

Will see how the rest of the day (and week), ends up. Still in a bottoming process here. I've been follwing the Wilshire 4500 pretty closely and it looks to turn it's third neg day in a row, and fall under the 20 EMA (currently ~605), again.

Another 4% or so down and we'll be looking up at the August lows. How "exciting", eh?
 
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Moody's has declared the era of too big to fail over.
In yet another blow to the financial sector, Moody's Investors Services announced the downgrade of Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America -- three of the United States' top banks.
 
I think we are doomed lol. Maybe I need to make the decision to finally pull all of my money out of the market...it is just hard to swallow the the loss and lock it in. Hard to tell when the market will rebound and if I miss the rebound I really screwed myself. At least my Oclaro stock is still doing good today.
 
heavy selling volume early, instead of late indicates....

heavy selling volume early, instead of late indicates potentially near capitulation:

Problem is the daily gaps (~3 to 4%) are not that large, and tomorrow is a friday, and who wants to go long into this weekend? At the end of september with black tuesday anniversery and so forth coming up? and the holiday sales season? and no relief for non-paying home-loan owners? (let's be clear here, they are not home owner if they aren't paying, and not that they deserve any relief - I don't think they do).

Hope BT is staying warm as that BAC stock he recently purchased burns like a bonfire at 5% negatory per day.

Then there's the rest of the financials. Uggh.
 
Re: heavy selling volume early, instead of late indicates....

I suspect one of my first acts of heroism will be to purchase 1,000 more shares of BAC under $6.00. I don't mind the pain.
 
One big volume day does not make a bottom...........

Birchtree said:
I suspect one of my first acts of heroism will be to purchase 1,000 more shares of BAC under $6.00. I don't mind the pain.
Click to expand...

yeah - that and a bag of marshmallows would make me happy.....


Aside from BT's acts of denial.....there is today's action of more interest......a nice pop in volume, which, in early august.......did eventually reach the nadir in the SPY at 1,117 or thereabouts.

But it took more than 1 day at 500 million+ shares.....more like 4 or 5.....and it was upwards of 700 million shares.

So there's a whole buncha semi-permabulls that need to shake out.

That said, the consecutive 3+% dropdaze, together with 550 on the S-fund (and 1,120 in the SPY) holding after interday attack, AND a probable lighter volume day tomorrow (friday), raises the possibility of a significant deadcat. Small advances will probably hold.....anything north of 2% up at the open will be sold into. See ya then.
 
delayed deadcat play - going slightly long into weekend

amoeba said:
yeah - that and a bag of marshmallows would make me happy.....


Aside from BT's acts of denial.....there is today's action of more interest......a nice pop in volume, which, in early august.......did eventually reach the nadir in the SPY at 1,117 or thereabouts.

But it took more than 1 day at 500 million+ shares.....more like 4 or 5.....and it was upwards of 700 million shares.

So there's a whole buncha semi-permabulls that need to shake out.

That said, the consecutive 3+% dropdaze, together with 550 on the S-fund (and 1,120 in the SPY) holding after interday attack, AND a probable lighter volume day tomorrow (friday), raises the possibility of a significant deadcat. Small advances will probably hold.....anything north of 2% up at the open will be sold into. See ya then.
Click to expand...

Walking the walk today; small bounce by the deadline holds under 2% with moderate volume; so alrighty then - I'll throw some chips into the pot. The risk here is a breakdown and late day sell; but sometimes, the lull activity is enough to bring some buyers into the action. I'm one of them. In 7% each SCI, 79% F which dropped like a stone; I would luv to break the negative 5% for the year barrier this month.....I know....I know.....Boghie will accuse me of lowering my expectations, which I am.
 
Re: delayed deadcat play - going slightly long into weekend

Along with lowering your expectations, all you have to do to meet your goal is patience. Don't do anything, hold the course in G, in 3 weeks you'll be above negative 5 percent! Not quite by end of month, but soon after. Could very well be the fastest way to get there.

dave


amoeba said:
Walking the walk today; small bounce by the deadline holds under 2% with moderate volume; so alrighty then - I'll throw some chips into the pot. The risk here is a breakdown and late day sell; but sometimes, the lull activity is enough to bring some buyers into the action. I'm one of them. In 7% each SCI, 79% F which dropped like a stone; I would luv to break the negative 5% for the year barrier this month.....I know....I know.....Boghie will accuse me of lowering my expectations, which I am.
Click to expand...
 
Re: delayed deadcat play - going slightly long into weekend

I think I'll take a swing on MCP now that it has been bruised (Molycorp). Tomorrow I'm going to buy 1,000 shares of BAC before it gets away. Good to see you finally into the water - even at 21% you can make money off this bottom.
 
a little more hope = a little more bet

51% CSI; 49%F

I think there may be another couple daze left in the deadcat before reality sets in, again.

Everyone be careful on this one......anything can happen.
 
not going as planned - - - everything on a sell

oooooooooo:

This is not looking good; light volumes, everything down slightly. I lightened up (24% CSI; 36%F; 40%G)

Durables missed by a good bit, job claims, homesales, and German vote later this week - ya think I'm the only one on pins and needles?

I expect nothing good for the rest of the week, but then there are these hopers that bid things up (like they did mon-wed), and then disappear.

I predict the next week will see either 1,090 or 1,230 in the SPY, and maybe both.
 
Re: not going as planned - - - everything on a sell

amoeba said:
ya think I'm the only one on pins and needles?
Click to expand...
No, I think the Bulls are wondering why they can't buy more and the Bears are wondering why they shouldn't see everything...

WOULD SOMEONE MAKE UP THEIR MIND AND DO IT???
 
wrong again, turned small weekly gain into probable 1% loss

amoeba said:
51% CSI; 49%F

I think there may be another couple daze left in the deadcat before reality sets in, again.

Everyone be careful on this one......anything can happen.
Click to expand...

I'm hoping to be under NEGATIVE 6% by COB. Dang it!!!

Leaving 24% in our trype CSI funds for no good reason to expect anything but bad or worse tomorrow.

The commentary was more right than me this week....I sorta believed it but double-crossed myself into thinking everyone else was stupid but they aren't.
 
reality sets in on Europe, job claims and earnings outlook....

Sorry folks:

I don't believe anyone anymore except myself......so this is what is going to happen, are you ready? then listen up.


October lows will be as follows:

S-fund index: 500
C-fund index: 1,060
F-fund index: 111.5
I- fund index: 44.2

Germany won't put in another penny....Greece will default....Euro banks (credit suisse, etc.) down the tubes.....China lands hard.....earnings will beat but forecast will disappoint. Job claims to go back to the usual 410-440K, or more.

Nothing worth investing in, really....not oil, gold, copper, small caps, large caps, or even bonds (although I am in it because of rotational expectations).

Follow the leaders.....23/30 are in G/F completely. 7/top 10 made zero IFT's last month. Smarter than I wuz.
 
Try margin - not margarine

My margin interest rate is 2.75% and I figure because it is tax deductable my real cost is around 2%. You can buy stocks that are earning a real dividend rate exceeding 4% and that means free money with leverage. Then there is the possibility of capital gains - I took a $60K profit off one of my stocks last week - that will sting even at a 15% tax.
 
don't call it capitulation....it's reality

Time for the slackers, the hopers, the ostriches, and the perma-bears, to face the music:

It will come later this week in the form of a shocker ....but not to me.

I say a huge jump in claims, probably >450K, will overshadow any creation (~50K, whip dee do)


Very soon, we'll be looking up at 1,100 in the SPY, from how far down below it....only time will tell.

I'm in reactive mode. No proactive IFT's any time soon.
 
Re: delayed deadcat play - going slightly long into weekend

don't call it capitulation....it's reality capital preservation is what I call it, I tell you "CAPITAL PRESERVATION".:)

I can lend you my lilly pad. My spider can tread on water.:D
 
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