amoeba's Account Talk

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Re: ho hum everybody is all in - now what?

amoeba said:
A quick look at the IFT's, and autotracker top 50, suggests strong bullishness; and resistence of the market to anything that might be interpreted as counter-news (such as Obama's budget cutting talk; a slight blip in the daily trade, and then more buying; frankly - I don't believe a word he's saying about cutting spending).

Now What?

I suppose the only further bullishness might be even bigger moves into small caps. I know that's what I'm thinking for now.

All in, and not planning on anything else in the near future.
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Just when I'm starting to think we are at a market top - especially in the 'S Fund'.

We probably still have legs till the summer doldrums...

But, the easy money has been made...

Oh, well, gotta work harder...


I wouldn't bail too much too quick if there is a couple point correction.
 
everybody and their brother is all in

No top yet, Boghie:

I honestly think this market is just at the beginning of going nutz, again. Everybody and their brother is all in, confident that benny and bamy will bail anybody out of anything, no matter what they say about ending this or that in Summer 2011...they won't do it.

They'll spend and spend and keep interest rates down from now until eternity, or until they can't, anymore.

No one that bought houses here in the last decade can sell them unless they take a loss of at least 20%, and often much more. There are no jobs, and the jobless rate (unemployed and discouraged workers) is reaching new highs. None of that matters. What matters is that the market is being speculated higher.

I say 1,450 (yes, that's right, ANOTHER 10%) before end of year.
 
QE2. Full steam ahead.

Today is a good example of where more IFT's could help; being all-in, I have to remain so in order to achieve any upside gains beyond yesterday's close, and just guess what, and whether, any of the fund prices will top between now and the end of the month. Hedging risk by bailing early, means no re-investment for another 10 biz days. Not good.

That said, today's trade was a pause - attributed by the news to retail sales, I don't see it that way - - - it seems to be commodity price driven - particularly big oil. Financials were a bit up anyway, and nobody cares about homes or jobs. Why? That's a good question - it would seem this would be important laggards but they're not, so far.

QE2. Full steam ahead.
 
The working population is at 90.5% employed - that's the important statistic. Housing will heal itself over time. This bull will go a long way to heal the economics of poor regulation - and that was one purpose of QE2. I want my asset bubble.
 
Amoeba,

I can't believe you would have bailed after a horrifying loss of one-fifth of one percent.

Oh my god...

That's just 1/250th of the 2008/09 collapse. If we keep losing this every day for the next five quarters of trading we will have our double dip depression.

Personally, I would not have bought in this week - but, we are in a normal market now. If you are in than you will make 10% or so.

If your not in you will be looking up at the G Fund.

Been there, done that, no mas...
 
He is not going to bail - courage is his new moto. He knows the bull will tread on him but he will survive. Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. The A/D line is not diverting, and it's very rare the price will top without A/D divergence.
 
Birchtree said:
He is not going to bail - courage is his new moto. He knows the bull will tread on him but he will survive. Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. The A/D line is not diverting, and it's very rare the price will top without A/D divergence.
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Haha: Not only am I all in, but I am rebalancing 1% to overweight the S-fund.

Judging by today's IFT's, I sense there are some lemmings following someone, probably a premium service, into the F-fund. Not me. The next 4 months under QE2 are a free lunch. I'm not sure I would call it a bull market, but there just isn't anywhere else to park money.

Unless that is in more S-fund. And I'll think about that next month.
 
Not saying there will be a whipsaw tomorrow but I wont be getting whipsawed tomorrow.

Jus' saying

Now I might get whipsawed this afternoon, but I hope not. :D
 
free money - all you want, just buy S-fund

Free money - all you want:

Nothing to stop the market, for now, not a pause; nothing will stop it - not oil prices, not the Fed, not unemployment, not home prices - nothing at all.

Tell our investors to buy until S&P hits 1,350, if it does, in February; Mr. Valentine ('s day) has set the price.

Just buy S-fund. Do it. Even you, Birchtree.
 
Nah, nah, nah, I'm being smothered in the warm glow of small caps in my oceanic account and I contimue to buy more. When the consolidation arrives many of my girls will be paying dividends and reinvesting them. Every day the small cap wall flowers do well I'm building flower power to buy more - it's a self feeding system. Am I diversified, you bet I am.
 
Re: free money - all you want, just buy S-fund

amoeba said:
Free money - all you want:

Nothing to stop the market, for now, not a pause; nothing will stop it - not oil prices, not the Fed, not unemployment, not home prices - nothing at all.

Tell our investors to buy until S&P hits 1,350, if it does, in February; Mr. Valentine ('s day) has set the price.

Just buy S-fund. Do it. Even you, Birchtree.
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:nuts: He finally got to you, huh. You caught da Bull Fever! Well I hope you are right because I still am invested in stocks enough to make incremental gains if we keep going up.
 
Free lunch and then some till June.

FAB1 said:
:nuts: He finally got to you, huh. You caught da Bull Fever! Well I hope you are right because I still am invested in stocks enough to make incremental gains if we keep going up.
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Sorry, can't thank birchtree for this one; thank the Fed for this no-brainer. If job claims come in light tomorrow, expect 1,350 by next tuesday. Pre-holiday light volume ain't hurting either.

Nothing matters right now. Buy Buy Buy (or, hold hold hold, as appropriate). Free lunch and then some till June.
 
Didnt someone say No Such Thing As A Free Lunch?

It would be nice if this kept sailing higher, but I gotta use caution
and stick to reaching my goals and cashing in, more or less
at least to the preserve my min. monthly targets

My wanna-be free lunch got Ate up last year and I barely
broken even - thats for the birds!

Happy Trading!
 
Some sort of sharp mid-day reversal, AGAIN, as I write (2/18/11, 2:50 pm EDT), and some indication from the I-fund that there is a rotation or some dollar exchange rate action.

This is all good - everyone needs to be all in on this or be left behind, as risky an allocation as you can take - that includes 1% IFT's. Next tuesday-wednesday could be a BIG winner. I will consider an IFT if there's a >2% daily upside move that might trigger a temp correction near month's end, but other than that, no worries.

I'll be curious to see if Birchtree walks the walk on his S-fund prediction of a correction there. Since these funds have been moving somewhat together, this means they'll all go down, so Birch is gonna be pulling money into G, before re-investing in S? That would be a first time, since my enrollment on this forum.
 
today didn't help my confidence, or reputation as a cooler:

I miscalled this month's top by about 7 points; and took the consequences. I did not think the market would react to Libya like they misreacted to Egypt; especially with the lack of influence the USA has over there, and the better grip of Gaddafi's regime.

But it is the Middle East. We've seen far more important events shrugged off. As this one will, well - I hope. Any thing can and does happen over there. I only hope we keep out of this one.
 
amoeba said:
today didn't help my confidence, or reputation as a cooler:

I miscalled this month's top by about 7 points; and took the consequences. I did not think the market would react to Libya like they misreacted to Egypt; especially with the lack of influence the USA has over there, and the better grip of Gaddafi's regime.

But it is the Middle East. We've seen far more important events shrugged off. As this one will, well - I hope. Any thing can and does happen over there. I only hope we keep out of this one.
Click to expand...

Dont forget Barry O's pledge: when political winds turn ugly I will side with the Muslims.
 
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