amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Here we are, 3 weeks into the year, and the range of TSP returns from top to bottom is close to 10%, with me in the middle doing nothing.

I don't have much to report; I will be momentarily on top of the message board when I post this, FWIW. I see inflated stock prices, perhaps justifiably so with all the printed money floating around, reduced taxes, and so forth. Is the dollar going to weaken more consistently? Is I-fund the place to be? Or is S-fund ripe for a bounce. I don't know the answers to any of these questions; I keep looking for hints and end up saying "one more day " and the same thing the next day.

Job creation. Help me out here. Is this going to improve? Can the economy survive on 10% unemployment? Why aren't wages flattening; what are these people doing (I know, I know, unemployment benefits eternal). Is this the new normal? (other countries also have high rates).

So, once everybody owns an I-phone, what next for technology - frankly, I don't care for the things but these pods, pads, phones, HDTV's; are getting extremely close to total saturation. Once you have wasted 100% of your life on gadgets - there really isn't any more - unless they're going to come up with flying saucers, which I doubt, and I wouldn't use one of those either.

Good luck everyone.

 

[FAB1]

Hi Amoeba - interesting post you brought up b/c I was just over on the tracker looking at the same thing and jotted down some notes.

Close of 1/21/2011 - 634 traders

Highest % 4.35
Lowest % -3.40
"zero line" - position #400
% spread - 7.74 (not quite 10%) :cheesy:

Do you think it is the first significant dip that gets the spread % to increase? The "zero line" has been crawling up this last week.

I cant give you the exact number but the "zero line" 10 days ago was in the high 500's. So I'd say we are well on our way in 2011, lets hope we have more users above than below "0".

And my post kept you bumped to the top of the MB - yes FWIW.

 

[JTH]

pigs get slaughtered, this is sucker rally, and I'm not a pig:

This quote was taken just after the March 2009 bottom was put in. If you want to stay parked in the G-Fund all year while the dollar continues its devaluation that's certainly your right. I'll only point out that your TEOTWAWKI thought process is not going to make you any money in this bull market.

 

[amoeba]

This quote was taken just after the March 2009 bottom was put in. If you want to stay parked in the G-Fund all year while the dollar continues its devaluation that's certainly your right. I'll only point out that your TEOTWAWKI thought process is not going to make you any money in this bull market.

No, JTH: that quote, from me, was not made in March 2009; I said it 2 weeks before the April 2010 peak (~1,210 or so), after which the market tanked until late August of last year. One of the few times I should have listened to myself.

If it makes you feel any better - I did go in half today; so we can all laugh when it causes another major collapse before the end of the month. Been wrong every time since the referenced quote.

 

[JimmyJoe]

I think you'll be OK till the end of the month. Bammy and da boyz is workin on it.

 

[amoeba]

I think you'll be OK till the end of the month. Bammy and da boyz is workin on it.

Agreed - the SOTU will NOT include significant reduction in government spending; some lip service, and the usual gutless Fed (i.e., no move in the overnight rate) non-reaction.

I had hoped for a lower close since I moved 1/2 in at COB, but there was some late buying; probably thinking no news is good news or something like that.

At last check, JTH - who said "If you want to stay parked in the G-Fund all year while the dollar continues its devaluation that's certainly your right.", is there himself.

 

[Boghie]

But, Amoeba...

JTH is not always on the Lilly Pad...

 

[JTH]

Amoeba I do admire your dispassionate sense of humor, you continue to touch the stove no matter how many times it burns you. I did start out the year invested, I'm in the G-Fund at the moment, but not for long (I hope.)

 

[amoeba]

But, Amoeba...

JTH is not always on the Lilly Pad...

And a check of my IFT's will show I'm not much of a lilly padder either; it's not lack of investing or sitting in G, - it's bad IFT timing, something JTH (among others) is clearly better at than me. Can't underperform like I did sitting in the G fund!!!

No gutz, no glory - I will continue trying; in fact, I am considering increasing equities if any of the funds gap down on the open tomorrow; and hope for a follow-thru at least friday.

 

[Birchtree]

We've had a run of 98 weeks with a 94.37% gains - think about that for a moment.

 

[amoeba]

We've had a run of 98 weeks with a 94.37% gains - think about that for a moment.

Or, if you were in the market the last five years, you had a run of 260 weeks with a 0.1% gain (from 1,266 in the S&P 500) - think about that for a moment

 

[Birchtree]

That is a preposterous thought - if you only knew. Well I'm glad you haven't faded and hope you'll be around all year making money like the rest of us now that you are in waist deep.

 

[amoeba]

That is a preposterous thought - if you only knew. Well I'm glad you haven't faded and hope you'll be around all year making money like the rest of us now that you are in waist deep.

I do know the S&P was 1,266 five years ago. What's so preposterous about that? Are you calling me a funny guy?

 

[amoeba]

I actually tried to go to G before the deadline, made it, printed out the page of successful submittal, and then went back into the TSP and it said I had a "pending" request which would be processed tomorrow. Maybe I'll just cancel that request.
So - the noon deadline - as it is in real life, well, let's just say either their clock is off - or there are factors in cutting it close.

Anyhoo, two of the three funds broke above the flatline after noon, and I susupect the I-fund shares will do it's usual funky thing on fair value which is impossible to predict exactly.

There's about a 50:50 mix of recent IFT's between those that are going all in, versus those that are bailing. Same with allocations.....about 300/600 participants in this board have >50% in G/F; and the same in CSI. I've been following this for contrarian signs, and am not seeing them.

The S-fund continues to rock on today; but this goes all over the place within a week, no less a month or 6 month period. Anything can happen there.

My early year is beginning like the last 3; I'm usually good for 2-4 months - then go stupid.

Bottom line: letting it ride 45% in.

 

[FAB1]

That is a preposterous thought - if you only knew. Well I'm glad you haven't faded and hope you'll be around all year making money like the rest of us now that you are in waist deep.

How many "entry" and "exit" points can we pick out of market history?

They dont prove anything because there is something like a lot of trading days "in between" your chosen "e&e" points - anybody can pick a couple of dates and say, See I was right!

 

[amoeba]

Correction coming or no?

I can't say why.....just nervous.....being in positive territory for the week:

I dunno - I believe one of two things will happen - the markets will either go up higher, or they will go down.

I did cancel my trade to G - - - - holding steady.....I would have thought about F but that went up today also.

 

[JTH]

Re: Correction coming or no?

I can't say why.....just nervous.....being in positive territory for the week:

I dunno - I believe one of two things will happen - the markets will either go up higher, or they will go down.

I did cancel my trade to G - - - - holding steady.....I would have thought about F but that went up today also.

Have you considered using a mechanical system to help calm your zen?

 

[FAB1]

Re: Correction coming or no?

I dunno - I believe one of two things will happen - the markets will either go up higher, or they will go down.

Wrong.

Thing #3 - markets stay the same.

well its rare I guess

I also know a correction is coming, yes it IS coming so mark it down. Do you hear me, BT?

The unanswered question however is: When will it come?

If I knew the day before it hit...

 

[amoeba]

Yikes:

As I said yesterday, I missed bailing to 100% G by seconds; so I canceled that trade.

Today, it gaps down - I believe this to be over-reaction; so my next move is accumulating;

Now 20% each CSI; 40% F.

Next week I'm traveling/busy; I may enter a bail for monday in advance....but not right now.

 

[FAB1]

amoeba-- if egypt fell into a black hole and never came back - no one would care monday

IFT comment of the Month! lol.