amoeba's Account Talk

Allow me to be the first to pleasantly welcome you to the 400 club. We've all been there a time or two. Next year is another year to make money so chin up.
 
I moved up in the ranking - you went south

Allow me to be the first to pleasantly welcome you to the 400 club. We've all been there a time or two. Next year is another year to make money so chin up.

Not true, dude - check the rankings. You got birchslapped to the tune of 1.75%, while I retreated 0.16%.

I don't have to put the boogy on you to tell you that you are in for another certain -2% for the rest of the month. Look at the enormous trade in the SPY - 222 million.

The gong soundeth. No turkey rally this yr. Some of this is due to headlines and that can change - but it is not low volume fluctuation. This is real. This is conviction selling.
 
Apparently I'm a day early on my congratulatory into the 400 club. Don't stand near the train tracks tomorrow because when the Grand Trunk passes it will create such a venturi effect that you may be pulled under. Any selling today was again basically nonsense - a perfect time to do some holiday shopping. Rule #2: Time in the market may be more rewarding than timing the market.
 
free money day!!!!!

Although the door prize goes to FLtiger (who went in yesterday, out today):

This was as close to free money as you will get; extremely low volume rise, based on a complete outlier of a jobless claims number, after an extremely high volume sell. I think the first shopping day will go contrarian - i.e., a big sell. The big days have been hard to predict, but that's mine. That means a big down day - probably next monday.

So - when will the rest of the country wake up and realize that 9% unemployment (the optimistic projection for the END of 2011) is not a pretty picture? I'd say.....next 4 wks.

I'll be looking for completion of the pullback (still not calling it a correction) - to the 1,165 level in this period as a re-entry point. I'm not settled on a "strategy" (what I'm doing isn't terrible, but isn't good either) - but I have a gambling attitude - so I think a little dabbling in "S" will be fun.
 
Amoeba,

Birch was Birchslapped all the way to a YTOD return of 9.84%
He will be back to around 12% today.
Who cares about North Korea.
A buying opportunity.

You have to accept risk in ANY normal market to make market earnings.
I was wrong in my New Years prediction, this is a normal market.
We will clear at least 9% in the S&P500 this year.
I was wimpy, silly, and stupid earlier.

Sitting in Social Security Bonds for years has been - and will be - a killer for your retirement. This is not 2008. If you sit in the Social Security Bonds for the remainder of your working lifetime you will get the equivalent of two Social Security checks each month. Yuk.:worried:

And, guess what, the politicians are gaming - and will soon game big time - Social Security earnings. Personally, I would be willing to give the Feds all the money I have placed in the Social Security 'lock box' if they would allow me to invest my half of the Social Security Tax (OADSI) in TSP. Politicians cannot game that as easily - and investing in a Roth takes that option away.
 
Besides interest income is taxed as ordinary income where stock dividends are currently taxed at 15% - and most probably will be extended into the future.
 
Nope, Boghie, Amoeba is not convinced:

Today's blip is nothing but light trading,, and Birch and anyone else who is counting on a seasonality blip will eat crow. Yes - I know the historicals, and I know last year was outlier (down) post holiday, but I don't think this will be a good one either. Overbought says me. Huge tops and bottoms in this market throughout this year. Not a great buy-hold situation. G returns aren't no fun either (for the reasons you state) - but that doesn't make equities any better, or safer (it's riskier). The second lost decade, has begun.

I've been wrong countless times in a row. I could be again. But I don't think so. I am due.
 
Look who's stubborn (answer: birchtree)

You are stubborn - a characteristic needed to be a good bull and you have potential.


Stubborn? who is it that has never been less than 80% in equities continuously for the last 3 years. Not me. Was you. And that last move of yours (only 20% to G, then 100% back to equities), was worse than mine..... I'd ask you to look at the weekly returns, but I'll save you the time.....your big day means you ended up 0.26% behind me for the week. Take them apples.

Stubborn? let's just suppose manna comes from heaven in the form of an up day towards the end of month. you gonna use an IFT? you gonna put it in G or F? show me the money - and move it. Your last move stunk as bad as mine, if not worse.

I'm not stubborn. I'm just on a bad streak. Buy-and-holders like you got kicked to smithereens in the down-years; it will take you decades - if ever - to even it up with me, or the G fund. Not an opinion. Fact. Go look at the returns. Sure - S fund might have been an exception but it isn't, since we didn't have that until relatively recently.


As for the forum sentiment readings, that's all they are - this board. The sentiment elsewhere - is overly bullish (read tom's commentary).
 
Welcome to the #400 club - you have earned your bear stripes. Because I practiced the displine of dollar cost averaging in all cycles my tugboat returned to the even level in the spring of this year - making me smell like a rose. And I plan to continue making money as the markets move forward. Yes, I'm very stubborn because it often pays nice dividends. Once you switch to the contrarian bullish side you will also make money. It is never easy being a bull - so much easier to cut and run. Be right and sit tight is what I say.
 
Amoeba,

Even the Wall Street Journal references you!!!

"Even amoebas learn by trial and error, but some economists and politicians do not."​
A powerful amoeba.

Yuk, yuk,

:p
 
faint praise comparing me to Obama

Amoeba,

Even the Wall Street Journal references you!!!
"Even amoebas learn by trial and error, but some economists and politicians do not."
A powerful amoeba.

Yuk, yuk,

:p


I would take that as a compliment, but I believe they were talking about President Obama, so no thank you. Not so brilliant deficit cutting move today, too, while we're talking about it. The pay "increases" we get, if any, are COLA's. No second term - - - I would take bets he doesn't get a nomination at this point.
 
Amoeba,

Nobody in the private sector has had a COLA for at least three years.

We will be in real trouble if inflation hits us. Our inflation adjustments are annual. In the private sector you can bargain or plead your case.

A nasty thought...

With the FED helicoptering money and some of the 'stimulus' still out there and the debt we are racking up will we get big inflation? Some think so. Will the President really not give Federal employees a COLA if inflation spikes 7%?

Yowser...
 
Sorry for your first ever TSP loss. It looks like you'll close out the year that way unless you grow a pair. Throw caution to the wind and just jump in.
 
Crap shoot week continues

Another day, equities all decline but with resistance at the 50 DMA of the SPY, some more volatility; slight deterioration of bonds; dollar rise continues; home prices decline further; and a job number awaits skewed by seasonal temporary employment. Taken together, nothing to crow about, but then again - nothing to warrant an extreme reaction either.

Expect a continued equity decline for the rest of the year, that will be so slow as to not erase hope but feel like water torture as those all in will not even learn to regret it until it is too late.
 
Re: Crap shoot week continues

Another day, equities all decline but with resistance at the 50 DMA of the SPY, some more volatility; slight deterioration of bonds; dollar rise continues; home prices decline further; and a job number awaits skewed by seasonal temporary employment. Taken together, nothing to crow about, but then again - nothing to warrant an extreme reaction either.

Expect a continued equity decline for the rest of the year, that will be so slow as to not erase hope but feel like water torture as those all in will not even learn to regret it until it is too late.

Another day, another wrong prediction. I am just stunned. That is still a piddly number of jobs in the ADP and even if the jobs number comes in at +200K it won't make a dent in the unemp. rate. I'm still waiting for the nitty-gritty on the bush cap gain cut expiration, and see what the deficit cut commission actually comes up with that will pass muster. No one should exclude the possibility of gridlock - we've had it here in California for quite awhile - and an unsustainable status quo on a national level, kicking the debt can down the road year after year, is begging for big trouble.

So - now what? OK - here goes. Market flops all over the place in December....from 1,159 to 1,239. That should cover it (and since I've been wrong all the time so far this year, it will be something else).
 
Why predict the market day to day?

You are watching a lot of returns get removed from your long term average return.
 
Here is rule #3 - the market is omnipotent. It is a discounting mechanism for the future and may be looking out six, twelve, or even eighteen months - into a future you may not be seeing currently. It's that simple. Look at the low point in March '09 - bet you didn't see an 80% rally up - but I was fully invested waiting for the turn.
 
rule #3 - the market is omnipotent. It is a discounting mechanism for the future

sage advice.

that arguement is in favor of sentiment traders, no?

with a mix of fundemental research say you feel that bond yields are not going to cut it in the future, then you go long stocks because the dead money will figure it out (a bit too late)? and then will chase good-feeling yields?

is that a legitamate strategery? gawd i hope so because it's been working for me baby.
 
It's a common sense strategy - pick your poison and let the market come to you. That way you leave emotion home and reap the rewards of other emotional folks. There is so much scared money sitting in bonds that it may well take several years before the bleeding stops - and that's a positive for equities. The higher we go in stocks the higher the greed factor of those on the sidelines - missing the opportunity to make serious money and the costs to get in are going up every day. A bull market can be very anxiety producing because no one knows where the top is. It's easy to see the bottom in a bear market - and you know it when you are standing on it with empty pockets.
 
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