amoeba's Account Talk

[Boghie]

You cut outfielders that are batting .250 with few home runs.

And, really, who cares about a 5% - 10% drop. If you cannot accept that much of a 'crash' you shouldn't be in equites.

What I am really saying is that with a 25% chance of a 10% crash - given that you have more than 5 years till retirement - you should have an equities position. And, I'm saying that even though I think the next two weeks will be crappy. If it is crappy than a 10% 'crash' will cost me about 4%, if it ain't crappy I'll do better. Since I don't smoke any crystal I'll not guess the future:nuts:.

Especially one based on a 25% hit rate and talking up a normal market decline.

The Hindenburg would have been fine if it lost 4% of its gas.

 

[PCRit]

Not worried about a 5-10% drop. It's the >20% hit which is a killer.

The H.O. is just one tool, but worth paying attention to. Many technicals need to go "right" to get 1 H.O., let alone 2 or more. I pulled out of the markets (near their peak) when we got an H.O. in 2007, rode the market up in 2008 and pulled out when we got another confirmed H.O. in 2008. Then rode the market up in 2009.

And the C fund is still 27% below it's 2007 peak, while anyone who followed the H.O. is way above where they were in 2007.

Riding the roller coaster down, only to hope it goes all the way back up is not for me. Different strokes I guess..

 

[Boghie]

PCRit,

You'll only get the 20% drop if you are 100% invested in equities. Or, shall I say, invested 100% in something. If you have a more balanced allocation than some assets will buffer others - even in 2008 through early 2009.

Anyway, summer investing is usually for the birds. Not last year, but most years. It usually bangs around the zero point. Not worth the risk.

But, summer investing is almost over. What will da’Boyz do in a week or two? Any of you guests at their cocktail parties???

Not worried about a 5-10% drop. It's the >20% hit which is a killer.

The H.O. is just one tool, but worth paying attention to. Many technicals need to go "right" to get 1 H.O., let alone 2 or more. I pulled out of the markets (near their peak) when we got an H.O. in 2007, rode the market up in 2008 and pulled out when we got another confirmed H.O. in 2008. Then rode the market up in 2009.

And the C fund is still 27% below it's 2007 peak, while anyone who followed the H.O. is way above where they were in 2007.

Riding the roller coaster down, only to hope it goes all the way back up is not for me. Different strokes I guess..

 

[PCRit]

Don't have a clue on what's going to happen...who does? Balanced is good, but the average loss between C, S, I, was 39.44% in 2008..including any of those in your balance, along with F & G made for a bad year.

The only game I play when markets and the economy are this mixed up is capital preservation. I missed the first 10% of gains in 2009 because I didn't trust the markets (still don't, so I've only been in G & F this year). But I didn't get hit with the 39% average market loss in '08 either. At least until I see some very good technical numbers to suggest otherwise, I'll stay out of the pool:worried:

 

[amoeba]

And the C fund is still 27% below it's 2007 peak, while anyone who followed the H.O. is way above where they were in 2007.

Riding the roller coaster down, only to hope it goes all the way back up is not for me. Different strokes I guess..

Or, the 1999 peak. Talk about a lost decade. More to the point (than the HO), the job claims numbers are stubbornly high and rising. WTF is up with that? I'm not sure how to explain that with the continuing claims level (or falling).

I'm wondering if an additional significant factor may be the pending expiration of the capital gains tax breaks; which are looking more like they will NOT be extended, or if it is extended, cut something else to pay for it.

This wks' GDP, job claims, and OPEX, together with light volume (except for bonds) could end up being a perfect storm. OTOH, a surprise in the economics (as unlikely as this may seem) - could result in a 4-5% upside daily move - which I will IFT the rest of my putrid CSI (30% total as of today) into G fund with a vengeance.

 

[PCRit]

I share your concerns. This article has been going around, you've probably seen it "3 Great Waves of Taxes". It has the full list of taxes to come. I suspect Congress will fix the AMT tax, marriage penalty and child deductions, just to buy votes, if for no other reason. But the coming taxes on businesses (and investment-taxes on dividends going from 15% to 39%-ouch) will be severe. http://atr.org/six-months-untilbr-largest-tax-hikes-a5171

 

[nnuut]

Yes folks, Assume the Position this won't be nice!!

 

[amoeba]

another IFT:

This time
84G
10F
2 each of CSI

No idea where the bottom is.....1,050 held.....but barely. What is that? 10/11 down days?

 

[poolman]

another IFT:

This time
84G
10F
2 each of CSI

No idea where the bottom is.....1,050 held.....but barely. What is that? 10/11 down days?

11 of the last 14 trading day's have been down. I got very lucky with my IFT this month. I caught the one big up day and am thankful for that.

 

[amoeba]

See you in October, maybe

11 of the last 14 trading day's have been down. I got very lucky with my IFT this month. I caught the one big up day and am thankful for that.

I hope tomorrow is an up day - I have already put in an IFT throwing in the towel on almost everything. I will try again maybe October.

Will the GDP at least come in 1.3%? If it doesn't, you can stick a fork in just about everything except G-fund for the rest of this calender year and then some. How about 1 week of coming in close to the job claims projections? (after what, 3 misses/revisions out of the last 4?).

This market was bad - got worse - and has, in my opinion, no where to go but down any time soon.:blink:

 

[amoeba]

8/25/10 Market takes no prisoners, all funds down

I hope tomorrow is an up day - I have already put in an IFT throwing in the towel on almost everything. I will try again maybe October.

Will the GDP at least come in 1.3%? If it doesn't, you can stick a fork in just about everything except G-fund for the rest of this calender year and then some. How about 1 week of coming in close to the job claims projections? (after what, 3 misses/revisions out of the last 4?).

This market was bad - got worse - and has, in my opinion, no where to go but down any time soon.:blink:

OUCH!!! This looks to be the third day this month where all of the funds except G will be in the red. All this before jobs and GDP - look for a big day one way or the other. Note that #2 ranked Pokerstar put half his chips into the pot COB today.

Late trade suggests bond correction may be coming. Look out below. How about a gold fund for TSP?

 

[amoeba]

suspended animation mimics oct 08-jan 09 cliff edge

OK:

so we've had three 50/200 EMA crosses in the SPY in 6 months; and the 200 EMA is in suspension; almost nothing like this has occurred EXCEPT

Oct 08 - Jan 09: That was a shorter period of suspended animation but it portended a long drawn out collapse of the market, with even one sucker rally in it's midst.

If anyone has been hurt now - think about what it will feel like if 25% goes down the tubes in a week; IOW the risk is STILL extreme, and the reward - like what? you mean the world economy will suddenly go back into stocks? why? how fast? Well - yes - that could be - but, like the last such sucker rally that I bought into (1,070 to 1,090, obviously a false bottom), was, as poolman pointed out - were 2 of the 3 days out of the last 14 which were up - everything else was a demoralizing, hopeless unwinding.

Today was not really much of an exception. Fairly even trade on heavy volume, turned up slightly in the last 90 minutes. I dumped some more S fund to cut losses. And bailed some F-fund, which lost a smidge.

As far as recent IFT's we're looking at 90%+ going all out. The lone exception, Pokerstar, is #2 in the ranks.

Fine - go jump 5% tomorrow. I'm wouldn't go back in this month if I had an IFT to do so, which I don't.

 

[amoeba]

Oh the humanity!!!!

The last hour of trading is looking like a flaming zeppelin. Tomorrow is the day. GDP. But this week has seen relatively heavy volume for this time of year, and most of it is selling.

I regret not bailing more yesterday, and I am only 6% in equities. I am still contemplating the move for tomorrow - There has been so much anticipation of the incineration to come on the economic data, that this is anyone's guess.

The first big miss, surprise, or technical breach of a major psychological threshold (say, 1,000 or 1,100 in the SPY, or 30 in the ^VIX) will likely result in a violent reaction one way or the other.

This is it. The hindenburg, the titanic. Just as bulls say what goes down, must come up, the bears will say it is going down before it is coming up. And this market....is going down right now.

 

[crws]

Re: Oh the humanity!!!!

The last hour of trading is looking like a flaming zeppelin. Tomorrow is the day. GDP. But this week has seen relatively heavy volume for this time of year, and most of it is selling.

I regret not bailing more yesterday, and I am only 6% in equities. I am still contemplating the move for tomorrow - There has been so much anticipation of the incineration to come on the economic data, that this is anyone's guess.

The first big miss, surprise, or technical breach of a major psychological threshold (say, 1,000 or 1,100 in the SPY, or 30 in the ^VIX) will likely result in a violent reaction one way or the other.

This is it. The hindenburg, the titanic. Just as bulls say what goes down, must come up, the bears will say it is going down before it is coming up. And this market....is going down right now.

you have seen this, yes? Looks alot like the 1970's with a touch of the 1930's tossed in.
from here:
http://dshort.com/articles/SP-Composite-secular-bull-bear-markets.html

 

[KevinD]

http://www.federalreserve.gov/whatsnext.htm

August 27 Speech--Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

The Economic Outlook and the Federal Reserve's Policy Response
At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Symposium,
Jackson Hole, Wyoming 10 a.m. ET

:worried:

 

[amoeba]

Bull market? you must be kidding me

Unemployment, home sales, at a nadir, more homeless people than I can ever remember, retail and commercial empty (no customers, or just plain vacant) except for Costco, and people are calling this a recovery, and no double dip and Bernanke makes some vague reference to "measures" and the market goes up:

Ok. Fine. The world is full of big money sovereign ostriches who play games in the summer.

That won't change the world. The end of the bull market isn't near, it's here.

Selling opportunity if the latest insanity continues for another day.

 

[amoeba]

Knife catching 101

Unemployment, home sales, at a nadir, more homeless people than I can ever remember, retail and commercial empty (no customers, or just plain vacant) except for Costco, and people are calling this a recovery, and no double dip and Bernanke makes some vague reference to "measures" and the market goes up:

Ok. Fine. The world is full of big money sovereign ostriches who play games in the summer.

That won't change the world. The end of the bull market isn't near, it's here.

Selling opportunity if the latest insanity continues for another day.

I said IFFFF! And there was not "another day". Trade ended very badly, pretty much mimicking the last 1+% gain day about 3 weeks ago. I suckered into that head fake; I'm looking for another depressing, demoralizing, hard-liquor week of multiple % losses, the sort of slow, unwinding of the market that sucks the life so slowly out of the bulls that they don't even feel it. Until - one day - the market falls below 1,000, and OH NO - you say, what a buying opportunity. And you buy, and the next week...OH NO - it's back up to 1,030, you gotta triple down....and it drops to 960, and another round of OH NO's.

Anyway, the moral of this mindless drivel is that this market is no longer range bound, on the down side, that is. But the upper range - around 1,100 more or less, is now 5% away; so even if that remains resistence it would make for a nice profit IFFF the market can ever put more than 2 up days together.

Another big IF. I doubt it, and the macroeconmics don't support that happening anytime soon. But it could. Stranger things have, and did already happen, this past April.

WAKE UP!

 

[crws]

summer prior to mid terms is some of the worst times to be in the market. It's all in the history books. 9 months prior to November (midterm) election, then 4th qtr + 2 more qtrs are the most lucrative.
I think Tsunami said it best that the current risk to reward ratio is too risky.
If you're gonna stay in, better spread it around with some F cuz G isn't gonna actively hedge any equities losses...

 

[Boghie]

Good point CRWS...

The 'G Fund' doesn't balance any negative move in any of the other funds. It is only a place to park when everything is going to hell.

I found that out the hard way this year. At least my F holdings helped out a bit. Should have known to ignore the G.

summer prior to mid terms is some of the worst times to be in the market. It's all in the history books. 9 months prior to November (midterm) election, then 4th qtr + 2 more qtrs are the most lucrative.
I think Tsunami said it best that the current risk to reward ratio is too risky.
If you're gonna stay in, better spread it around with some F cuz G isn't gonna actively hedge any equities losses...

 

[Birchtree]

Get all in now before the dust settles because it will only cost you more next week. I should boing right by you today - that's what happens in a bull market.