amoeba's Account Talk

[JimmyJoe]

Stocks suck so bad

 

[nasa1974]

rank #116 today (7/21/10); could be worse......could be better......wish it was....QUOTE]

Wish my ranking was in the 100's.

 

[amoeba]

Double Crossed!!!!!

07/22/10 - Now WHAT????

The market goes up 3 consecutive days, for "earnings"????

That is a bunch of crap. Anyway, my 6% in CSI may pull me close to even on the day depending on how badly my F-fund bet failed (did not bail enough yesterday), but not enough for the dreaded birchtree to pass me in the rankings. I think I'll be looking at a flustering drop in the rankings to the mid #130's or so. Dag nab it!!!

What really fooled me was the death cross; these occur infrequently, and are rarely if every followed anytime soon by a golden cross - only once in that I can recall in the last 20+ years (october 5 and 29, 1998), and that was during a strong bull rally.....it was more of an overdue correction than anything else.....whereas now we are in this false economy buoyed by stimuli and we get a double cross?

But remember....it is not what I think "should" happen.....it is what "does" happen.

And what we may be looking at is the rarest of the rare patterns:

the Double Cross

If there was any nascent indication of this (and I think I eluded to this in a post on someone else's site), it would have been the ^VIX SMAs, which are all (20, 50, 200) now (the 200 the latest) inflected downward in recent days.....while still high (~25 level or so), this is showing what seems to be a repeat pattern of late last Dec to this Jan. If complacency sets in further, the market could move higher still. Or it may not.

 

[JTH]

Re: Double Crossed!!!!!

07/22/10 - Now WHAT????

The market goes up 3 consecutive days, for "earnings"????

That is a bunch of crap. Anyway, my 6% in CSI may pull me close to even on the day depending on how badly my F-fund bet failed (did not bail enough yesterday), but not enough for the dreaded birchtree to pass me in the rankings. I think I'll be looking at a flustering drop in the rankings to the mid #130's or so. Dag nab it!!!

What really fooled me was the death cross; these occur infrequently, and are rarely if every followed anytime soon by a golden cross - only once in that I can recall in the last 20+ years (october 5 and 29, 1998), and that was during a strong bull rally.....it was more of an overdue correction than anything else.....whereas now we are in this false economy buoyed by stimuli and we get a double cross?

But remember....it is not what I think "should" happen.....it is what "does" happen.

And what we may be looking at is the rarest of the rare patterns:

the Double Cross

If there was any nascent indication of this (and I think I eluded to this in a post on someone else's site), it would have been the ^VIX SMAs, which are all (20, 50, 200) now (the 200 the latest) inflected downward in recent days.....while still high (~25 level or so), this is showing what seems to be a repeat pattern of late last Dec to this Jan. If complacency sets in further, the market could move higher still. Or it may not.

IMHO a death cross only carries significant weight when it's broad across the major indexes. We still have a golden cross on the Transports and Small caps, therefore we still have a game worth paying.

I did a SPX scan awhile back and 80 days was the average crossover time, with 20 days being the shorter end of the stick. If you look at my golden cross thread you will see a few of the shorter ones, I call these "touch & go" landings. As of now, SPX is at day 15.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Double Crossed!!!!!

IMHO a death cross only carries significant weight when it's broad across the major indexes. We still have a golden cross on the Transports and Small caps, therefore we still have a game worth paying.

I did a SPX scan awhile back and 80 days was the average crossover time, with 20 days being the shorter end of the stick. If you look at my golden cross thread you will see a few of the shorter ones, I call these "touch & go" landings. As of now, SPX is at day 15.

And today was the double cross in the SPY, on day 15, sure - there is some variation but THAT was one short stick. Good points, however. I will take a look for your golden cross thread (you're welcome to provide the post #); and keep a better eye on the small caps, which I had thunk were toast. No pain, no gain - or for me - pain and no gain.

 

[Birchtree]

You have been patiently waiting for your lesson I promised. Here it is in five words: Never fade a bull market. There are times when time in the market is more profitable than timing the market - watch the glorious ride going forward now that the correction is over and the bull is rampaging.

 

[Birchtree]

Welcome back to the first page - you were missed.

"Copper Signaling A Strong Economic Recovery"

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21458.html

 

[amoeba]

indicators on the fence

a)^VIX - in the middle of no-where - had been going down, then up, now no signal

b) SPY - double, perhaps triple cross, on the EMA's, can tell nothing.

c) EFA - death cross, and last 3-4 sessions, inflecting up to a double cross?

d) reaction to earnings - IMO way overbought; call me up in Q4; I shoulda known about this but that downward headfake to 1,022 messed me up, and the death crosses of the EFA and then SPY.

e) housing - still a bunch of mortages in trouble; foreclosure rates high, but decreasing - possibly in reaction to higher loan mod rate - which we all know has a high re-failure rate. I still say a large fraction of the underwaters must drown. loan mods delays the inevitable; prices are not going up, at least not higher than the rate of inflation.

f) employment - nothing to crow about; bad times continue, but aren't getting worse, yet.

Taken together - it's anyone's guess; I still have no clue what will happen next, and momentum plays haven't been working, at least not for me.

 

[crws]

Re: indicators on the fence

Recent history is my bet....follow the green...

-however, the next 2 weeks could all change tomorrow depending on the GDP report.

a)^VIX - in the middle of no-where - had been going down, then up, now no signal

b) SPY - double, perhaps triple cross, on the EMA's, can tell nothing.

c) EFA - death cross, and last 3-4 sessions, inflecting up to a double cross?

d) reaction to earnings - IMO way overbought; call me up in Q4; I shoulda known about this but that downward headfake to 1,022 messed me up, and the death crosses of the EFA and then SPY.

e) housing - still a bunch of mortages in trouble; foreclosure rates high, but decreasing - possibly in reaction to higher loan mod rate - which we all know has a high re-failure rate. I still say a large fraction of the underwaters must drown. loan mods delays the inevitable; prices are not going up, at least not higher than the rate of inflation.

f) employment - nothing to crow about; bad times continue, but aren't getting worse, yet.

Taken together - it's anyone's guess; I still have no clue what will happen next, and momentum plays haven't been working, at least not for me.

 

[Birchtree]

"The 2010 contraction is now clearly worse than the 'Great Recession' was at the same point in their respective time lines. And we don't see a bottom forming yet."

http://pragcap.com/inside-the-gdp-numbers

 

[Boghie]

Birch,

Birch,​

Birch...​

You know as well as I do that the initial months of 'The Great Recession' were leading to a soft landing. Late 2007 through early 2008 was a rather gentle glide slope. It took six months to drop 10%. Then, bang

Then again, Amoeba keeps matching the highs of a Market Bubble with the value of a market recovering from an absolute crash. You know, the 10 year performance. Rather than 12 year performance or 8 year performance.

Oh well...

"The 2010 contraction is now clearly worse than the 'Great Recession' was at the same point in their respective time lines. And we don't see a bottom forming yet."

http://pragcap.com/inside-the-gdp-numbers

 

[amoeba]

There's alot more riding on the jobs report; like CP, I have been following the ^VIX which, speaking of crosses, is just short of a "SUPERCROSS" of it's 200 and 50 EMAs. Those who follow this closely saw the inflection of the ^VIX 200 EMA ~2 weeks ago, coinciding with the latest market turn. But the supercross has captured, the last couple cycles, 50-75% of the subsequent gain. So does that mean, with a 100 pt. rise in the SPY, another 100 is due?

Maybe. But it isn't soup yet. And the year ain't over,

amoeba, amoeba, amoeba.

 

[Birchtree]

"Will we have a terminal top or throwover top in the next few days on this rally, then followed by a substantial correction" Nah.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/17738/a-pattern-analysis-of-the-sp-500-index-rally

 

[PCRit]

125,000 jobs lost.
NYSE Composite Index, 50DMA crosses under 200DMA.
S&P500 only needs 3.5 drop in 50DMA to cross under 200DMA.

Looks like “slow motion” crash is going to continue.

June job loss revised to -221,000
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

July job loss at -131,000 (wanna bet to be revised down in Sep).

And the recession officially ended in June 2009...riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

Still looks/feels, like a slow mo crash is continuing. Two scoops and a double-dip (recession)..coming your way...

 

[Birchtree]

It's time to get into the pool at least up to your knees. " In Lowry's 77 year history there has never been an instance, at this early stage of a new bear market, where Buying Power was at a new rally high and Selling Pressure at a new reaction low."

http://pragcap.com

 

[amoeba]

It's time to get into the pool at least up to your knees. " In Lowry's 77 year history there has never been an instance, at this early stage of a new bear market, where Buying Power was at a new rally high and Selling Pressure at a new reaction low."

http://pragcap.com

Birch, I am in. In fact, I just loaded up on some more F-fund (79%), while raising my CSI to 21%. Market is back up to 1998 prices. whoopee.

 

[amoeba]

complacency/no fear continues: 2 yr swaps remain under 20 bps; ^vix 50 within fraction of crossing 200 ema; expect claims tomorrow to be inline; ergo, small bet (21% CSI) expected to pay off through this and next week, perhaps.

 

[amoeba]

Into the abyss, AGAIN

complacency/no fear continues: 2 yr swaps remain under 20 bps; ^vix 50 within fraction of crossing 200 ema; expect claims tomorrow to be inline; ergo, small bet (21% CSI) expected to pay off through this and next week, perhaps.

I can't believe my moves; moving in, AGAIN, right at the precipice of a cliff-drop day; and I wade in like it was a jacuzzi. I should be looking at something like -0.6% or so; I had half a mind of just going all F, but the greed got the better of me, as my 6% in prior to that was pretty much all that was producing.

Oh well. Claims is actually tomorrow, and may surprise. I honestly was not expecting today's move; my only saving grace is that I have been SO BAD with my timing that I have been making smaller moves, limiting my losses.

Could be worse. No. make that it WILL be worse. Asian futures are bleeding everywhere. And then there's friday. A gap down tomorrow and follow thru friday, man, I hate to think - what could we be looking at? Minus 10% for the week? Returns for me this year have been hard and slow to come by, and very fast and easy to lose.

 

[PCRit]

Very difficult to play this market. Which is why I’ve been out all year, just been in the G and F funds. Things sure aren’t looking good for the market, or the economy. Check out this article on the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index. Caution is warranted.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21808.html

 

[amoeba]

Horrible Day

Anything except G fund is down today. Horrible. The claims number missed (though within noise), and home repo's spiked big, reversing the recent trend.

Damn it all.

A few of the daring and - historical or currently successful members of the tracker here - have gone all in today, for those following the recent IFT's as a guide.

I can only hope they are right. There are times when the markets take no prisoners. Whether now is or is not one of those remains to be seen - we shall all know soon.