tsptalk's Market Talk

[amoeba]

Bottom fell out after Burry's X posts reconfirming his AI bubble bust expectation.

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[TommyIV]

Did Nvidia just save the AI trade? That's the hope this morning, after weeks of talk of a bubble and even a crash coming to the stock market.

Now it is still early and this could fail. The gap left behind at the open is large and there will be some gravity trying to pull it down to fill it, but right now this morning's 2% gain puts the index back above the 50 and 30 day averages and, surprisingly, right back in the rising trading channel. so holding this morning's gains is crucial.

From an enthusiastic morning to a sinking ship. The S&P 500 held a morning gain of 1.4% around the time of your post. It now holds a 0.6% loss ten minutes after the IFT deadline and is back below its 50-day EMA.

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]

Capitulation? The close is everything.

 

[coolhand]

Capitulation? The close is everything.

NAAIM is still fairly bullish, so we may very see that capitulation. I gotta find some popcorn.

 

[Boghie]

Wish I had more in G/F.

A speculation bubble my be bursting, but the economy is starting to roll. So, all is good.

Then again, this downward move happened too late to take advantage of. We shall see what happens at 1500 EST.

 

[tsptalk]

Wash. Rinse. Repeat...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1988983803604529414

 

[JTH]

Wash. Rinse. Repeat...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1988983803604529414

This will be the 4th Down Thursday in a row.

About a -5.32% loss over these last 4.

 

[tsptalk]

Typical post plunge day. Early rally that gets sold. As always, the close matters most as far as if / when we get a serious counter rally.

The good news? There's likely a big relief rally coming. The bad news? Everyone expects it so it will take its sweet time.

Cryptos may be the key. Once they stabilize the stock market should gain more confidence.

Yields are down this morning and the odds of a December rate cut shot up to 75%. That's surprising, and good news.

 

[amoeba]

I think you may be underweighting the counterforce of the recent AI bubble scenario, repeated on the NYT front page today. Lately, AH or even opening prices have meant nothing; only the close. There's just so much blow in the mag 7, if AI sentiment fails, money can vanish quickly.

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[tsptalk]

The Monday morning gap up recaptured the losses from Friday's late selling, and now it is back above the 50-day moving average. That needs to hold since it is a key resistance areas for the bears. The trend is still technically down and until this gets above last Thursday's large negative reversal candlestick, investors could look at the high of that being a retracement target but nothing else. In other words, these gains are great, but there's more work to be done to say the downside is over.

Both the C (S&P) and S (DWCPF) fund's charts did find support at key moving averages last, and that's is encouraging, but bottoms are not made until overhead resistance is taken out.

 

[tsptalk]

The big move off of Friday's lows has the market slightly overbought in the very short term, so today feels like a little digestion of those gains, while others may be considering profit taking and preparing for another leg lower with bitcoin down again stopping that momentum for a day.

Small caps are doing well so breadth is quite positive.

Yields and the dollar are down.

 

[tsptalk]

After an awful start, November is trying to redeem itself with an explosive rally in the final week of the month, with some of the best Thanksgiving week action we've seen in a long time.

All of the TSP stock funds are up nicely for a 4th straight day. Bonds are down as yields rebound this morning. The dollar has turned lower again.

The Volatility Index is showing the shift as it has fallen below two support levels after a second spike in two month. Holiday trading is here.




Meanwhile, fear is still in the air, and that becomes fuel for a rally as the fearful start to buy again.

 

[tsptalk]

Barring any late shenanigans on this half day of trading, it looks like we will be seeing a 5th straight day of gains for the major indices, and a rare Thanksgiving week sweep for the bulls posting a gain every day.

There were levels on the chart being tested today but that resistance has so far been easily taken out.

The talk this week is that we are now on the verge of another Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal. We got one in late April and the S&P 500 rallied 23% over the following six months.

Yields are up this morning and the dollar is falling. The weak dollar is helping gold, oil, and bitcoin rally this morning.

The stocks market closes at 1 pm ET today. The TSP deadline is still noon ET.

 

[tsptalk]

Incredibly, today's gain put the S&P 500 in positive territory for November making it seven straight positive months.

The I-fund should also be positive for the month, while the S-fund was down just 0.45%.

What was all the fuss about?