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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
- Reaction score
- 2,016
Stocks opened higher again, and like yesterday, the initial high in was sold, but unlike yesterday, the indices are pushing right back to those highs as I write this. Yesterday the highs of the day were made in the first half hour of trading.
Small caps are lagging with a small loss as they retrace some of the downside of Wednesday's wide trading range.
Yields and the dollar are down in early trading, giving a modest breeze to the back of the stock market.
Gold is up big again, oil is up on word that India may stop buying Russian oil, and bitcoin is down slightly.
Small caps are lagging with a small loss as they retrace some of the downside of Wednesday's wide trading range.
Yields and the dollar are down in early trading, giving a modest breeze to the back of the stock market.
Gold is up big again, oil is up on word that India may stop buying Russian oil, and bitcoin is down slightly.
- Reaction score
- 422
Looks like this comment came around the high of the day. Now at 12:23 PM ET the S&P 500 is trading in negative territory.
- Reaction score
- 2,016
Stocks opened higher this morning, opening a gap on many charts. It could be another volatile week, so says the calendar, so we could see an attempt to fill that gap.
Yields are down slightly and the 10-year Treasury is below 4% again. The dollar is up, but the I-fund is doing well regardless.
I don't know if it's my computer or if the stockcharts website is having trouble because I can't pull up my normal charts this morning.
Gold and bitcoin are up, oil is down, and the VIX is back below 20.
Yields are down slightly and the 10-year Treasury is below 4% again. The dollar is up, but the I-fund is doing well regardless.
I don't know if it's my computer or if the stockcharts website is having trouble because I can't pull up my normal charts this morning.
Gold and bitcoin are up, oil is down, and the VIX is back below 20.
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- Reaction score
- 2,016
Stocks opened on the sluggish side with small caps and the I-fund lagging, but we've seen some buying since the opening bell.
The 10-year yield is making new lows again this morning, printing 3.95% as the low so far, so that downward trend continues. Good for consumers as interest rates fall, but there's a reason it is falling so low - economic concerns?
The dollar, on the other hand, is rallying again. This should put pressure on prices (did you see gold today?), including the I-fund , which had been almost ignoring the recent strength in the dollar.
Today it is paying a bit of a price as the I-fund lags the US funds this morning.
Gold is down sharply, bitcoin and oil are also trading lower. The dollar is having an impact on commodities.
The 10-year yield is making new lows again this morning, printing 3.95% as the low so far, so that downward trend continues. Good for consumers as interest rates fall, but there's a reason it is falling so low - economic concerns?
The dollar, on the other hand, is rallying again. This should put pressure on prices (did you see gold today?), including the I-fund , which had been almost ignoring the recent strength in the dollar.
Today it is paying a bit of a price as the I-fund lags the US funds this morning.
Gold is down sharply, bitcoin and oil are also trading lower. The dollar is having an impact on commodities.
- Reaction score
- 2,016
Rocktober continues and this week's historic volatility is not disappointing those statistics. The good news, it tends to end after this week and then a year end rally tends to begin. That's on average, and obviously not every year do we get that rally.
Ironically, the one thing that concerns me about this is how many people are talking about it, including myself. When everyone expects something, it can be the last thing that actually happens. We'll see.
This morning we are seeing some backing and filling toward those opens gaps created on Monday. That's not a bad thing as otherwise, if we do get a year end rally, investors would always be looking over their shoulders to see where that open gap was.
Yields are up and the dollar is down this morning. Gold is down for a second day, oil is up big, and bitcoin continues to flounder near the recent lows.
We're supposed to get the CPI report on Friday, but that's still questionable, I assume, since it has already been delayed once by the shutdown.
Ironically, the one thing that concerns me about this is how many people are talking about it, including myself. When everyone expects something, it can be the last thing that actually happens. We'll see.
This morning we are seeing some backing and filling toward those opens gaps created on Monday. That's not a bad thing as otherwise, if we do get a year end rally, investors would always be looking over their shoulders to see where that open gap was.
Yields are up and the dollar is down this morning. Gold is down for a second day, oil is up big, and bitcoin continues to flounder near the recent lows.
We're supposed to get the CPI report on Friday, but that's still questionable, I assume, since it has already been delayed once by the shutdown.
- Reaction score
- 2,016
We have stocks trading higher this morning with small leading the way. Earnings were not great last night so this is just gyrating stocks in a volatile week in October.
Yields and the dollar are both up slightly. In the case of the 10 year yield, that may be a good thing as investors look for stability in the bond market. As for the small gain in the dollar, the I fund doesn't seem to care as it is doing well this morning.
We have oil up sharply this morning, while gold and Bitcoin are also up modestly.
The indices are looking for direction but the charts still looked pretty good and it was a matter of working out the kinks of the major decline on October 10th.
Next week many of the magnificent 7 will be reporting earnings so it could be another rollercoaster, unless they all give similar guidance.
Yields and the dollar are both up slightly. In the case of the 10 year yield, that may be a good thing as investors look for stability in the bond market. As for the small gain in the dollar, the I fund doesn't seem to care as it is doing well this morning.
We have oil up sharply this morning, while gold and Bitcoin are also up modestly.
The indices are looking for direction but the charts still looked pretty good and it was a matter of working out the kinks of the major decline on October 10th.
Next week many of the magnificent 7 will be reporting earnings so it could be another rollercoaster, unless they all give similar guidance.
- Reaction score
- 2,016
In the first hour if trading the indices are telling us that the CPI report was what it needed to see to break the recent two week stalemate and move to new highs. It's very early and we've seen afternoon failures before so don't count your chickens, but, that CPI came in without too much concern for inflation and that means the Fed is likely to stay on the dovish course to cut rates.
Gold and bitcoin are flat this morning, and oil is up about 1% per barrel.
Gold and bitcoin are flat this morning, and oil is up about 1% per barrel.
- Reaction score
- 2,016
Another gap up this morning as the S&P 500 stretches up toward the top of the trading channel. That leaves a lot of room to the bottom of the channel, but with the Fed set to cut interest rates again, inflation moderating - although sticky, and seasonality heading into the most bullish time of the year, the indices could remain buoyant to the frustration of the bears. But we know we are always one headline away from a shake up.
Other than the rally in stocks, the only other interesting development this morning is the continued decline in the price of gold, which is down about 3% today.
Bitcoin and oil are up this morning.
Other than the rally in stocks, the only other interesting development this morning is the continued decline in the price of gold, which is down about 3% today.
Bitcoin and oil are up this morning.
- Reaction score
- 2,016
The Dow is leading this morning, but stocks are mixed and near flat today, which isn't a bad thing after a big three day rally.
Small caps are lagging again while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq made new highs in early trading.
Tomorrow is Fed day, and as I pointed out in the previous post, there has been a moderately negative bias on recent FOMC meeting days.
Gold and oil are down, and bitcoin is flat.
TSP Funds:
Small caps are lagging again while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq made new highs in early trading.
Tomorrow is Fed day, and as I pointed out in the previous post, there has been a moderately negative bias on recent FOMC meeting days.
Gold and oil are down, and bitcoin is flat.
TSP Funds:
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- Reaction score
- 2,016
It's a quietly positive morning in front of this afternoon's Fed decision on interest rates and Magnificent 7 earnings after the bell.
The early strength is waning some and we see some extremes on the chart of the S&P 500 (C-fund), and to a lesser degree the ACWX (I-fund). Small caps (S-fund / DWCPF) have been pulling back recently and the chart is not quite as extreme. That could be seen as relative weakness, or the chart is trying to fill a gap and hold a the breakout level so perhaps the optimist may say this has a better set up.
Obviously what we see above and what will happen in a few hours could change dramatically, and more so if the Fed does does not deliver what is expected.
Gold and oil are up this morning, bitcoin is down. Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet will be reporting earnings after the closing bell today.
The early strength is waning some and we see some extremes on the chart of the S&P 500 (C-fund), and to a lesser degree the ACWX (I-fund). Small caps (S-fund / DWCPF) have been pulling back recently and the chart is not quite as extreme. That could be seen as relative weakness, or the chart is trying to fill a gap and hold a the breakout level so perhaps the optimist may say this has a better set up.
Obviously what we see above and what will happen in a few hours could change dramatically, and more so if the Fed does does not deliver what is expected.
Gold and oil are up this morning, bitcoin is down. Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet will be reporting earnings after the closing bell today.
- Reaction score
- 2,016
The stock market is feeling a bit of a Fed hangover today but the indices have come off their worst levels of the day and are mixed. The Dow and small caps are positive while the recently hot S&P 500 and Nasdaq lag with Microsoft and Meta down sharply after posting earnings last night.
Yields and the dollar are up, and that has the I-fund also down this morning.
Bitcoin is continuing its recent slide off the all time highs, while gold and oil are flat.
Apple and Amazon report earnings after the bell tonight, and tomorrow we get the key PCE Prices inflation report.
Yields and the dollar are up, and that has the I-fund also down this morning.
Bitcoin is continuing its recent slide off the all time highs, while gold and oil are flat.
Apple and Amazon report earnings after the bell tonight, and tomorrow we get the key PCE Prices inflation report.
- Reaction score
- 2,016
Amazon and Apple's earnings are helping regain some of Thursday's losses, but so far investors are not rushing to get back in.
One of the reason could be that the Fed's probability of another rate hike in December fell 10 points to 62% today. I was afraid of something like that with the PCE Prices data due out, and that report was on the economic calendar this morning, but so far the bea.gov website just says:
www.bea.gov
We have a good bounce in the S&P 500 (C) but it's off the highs already and the two gaps are still open below. It could take off from here but we could also see more volatility next week to fill the gap before the bulls jump back in. It may not be what the bulls want to see, but if it doesn't fill those gaps, we'll be looking over our shoulder for the next few weeks wondering when.
I thought the I-fund price was rather generous yesterday given the sell off in US stocks and the big rally in the dollar. That may be catching up today as the dollar is up again, and the ACWX (I) is lagging badly so far this morning.
Bitcoin is up this morning, gold and oil are up slightly.
One of the reason could be that the Fed's probability of another rate hike in December fell 10 points to 62% today. I was afraid of something like that with the PCE Prices data due out, and that report was on the economic calendar this morning, but so far the bea.gov website just says:
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
We have a good bounce in the S&P 500 (C) but it's off the highs already and the two gaps are still open below. It could take off from here but we could also see more volatility next week to fill the gap before the bulls jump back in. It may not be what the bulls want to see, but if it doesn't fill those gaps, we'll be looking over our shoulder for the next few weeks wondering when.
I thought the I-fund price was rather generous yesterday given the sell off in US stocks and the big rally in the dollar. That may be catching up today as the dollar is up again, and the ACWX (I) is lagging badly so far this morning.
Bitcoin is up this morning, gold and oil are up slightly.
- Reaction score
- 2,016
The stock market opened higher this morning, but in typical Monday morning fashion, it started to back and fill the open gap. That's where it stands now. It could bounce back and lead stocks higher into the close. It could trigger a negative reversal day. It could chop around in a good old fashion bulls vs. bears battle, but as James talked about in his thread, something feels off.
We're seeing bitcoin drifting well off its all time highs in recent weeks and that could be a wealth effect killer, even though most people don't own bitcoin - it is a catalyst for stocks. Gold has been stabilizing after its sharp pullback.
We know this is the time of year that stocks tend to make a bullish move into the end of the year, but not every year. The 2008 bear market started off a peak in October of 2007, so that wasn't the time to be buying.
I'm not saying the market is about to crash - probably far from it, but like James said, something doesn't feel right, whether its the long government shutdown, the constant political conflicts escalating? Or is it inflation fatigue?
I know when I go out these days, I am stunned by the price of just eating out. You can't really go anywhere without dropping a hundo , and I don't live in an expensive city.
Anyway, the charts are holding up well even though the small caps have tested support yet again, which is troublesome, but so far no breakdown and that means people are still buying the dips.
We're seeing bitcoin drifting well off its all time highs in recent weeks and that could be a wealth effect killer, even though most people don't own bitcoin - it is a catalyst for stocks. Gold has been stabilizing after its sharp pullback.
We know this is the time of year that stocks tend to make a bullish move into the end of the year, but not every year. The 2008 bear market started off a peak in October of 2007, so that wasn't the time to be buying.
I'm not saying the market is about to crash - probably far from it, but like James said, something doesn't feel right, whether its the long government shutdown, the constant political conflicts escalating? Or is it inflation fatigue?
I know when I go out these days, I am stunned by the price of just eating out. You can't really go anywhere without dropping a hundo , and I don't live in an expensive city.
Anyway, the charts are holding up well even though the small caps have tested support yet again, which is troublesome, but so far no breakdown and that means people are still buying the dips.
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FireWeatherMet
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 210
- AutoTracker
True, but when those first "Gloom and Doom" reports come up, that often leads to the "Wall of Worry" that propels the market to new highs in the coming weeks. Then complacency sets in even amongst some of those folks. THATS when its time to cash in and run to safety, IMHO. VIX a good tool for that.
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