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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
- Reaction score
- 454
From an enthusiastic morning to a sinking ship. The S&P 500 held a morning gain of 1.4% around the time of your post. It now holds a 0.6% loss ten minutes after the IFT deadline and is back below its 50-day EMA.
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 513
NAAIM is still fairly bullish, so we may very see that capitulation. I gotta find some popcorn.
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,054
- Reaction score
- 2,136
Typical post plunge day. Early rally that gets sold. As always, the close matters most as far as if / when we get a serious counter rally.
The good news? There's likely a big relief rally coming. The bad news? Everyone expects it so it will take its sweet time.
Cryptos may be the key. Once they stabilize the stock market should gain more confidence.
Yields are down this morning and the odds of a December rate cut shot up to 75%. That's surprising, and good news.
The good news? There's likely a big relief rally coming. The bad news? Everyone expects it so it will take its sweet time.
Cryptos may be the key. Once they stabilize the stock market should gain more confidence.
Yields are down this morning and the odds of a December rate cut shot up to 75%. That's surprising, and good news.
I think you may be underweighting the counterforce of the recent AI bubble scenario, repeated on the NYT front page today. Lately, AH or even opening prices have meant nothing; only the close. There's just so much blow in the mag 7, if AI sentiment fails, money can vanish quickly.
Sent from my moto g 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
Sent from my moto g 5G (2022) using Tapatalk
- Reaction score
- 2,136
The Monday morning gap up recaptured the losses from Friday's late selling, and now it is back above the 50-day moving average. That needs to hold since it is a key resistance areas for the bears. The trend is still technically down and until this gets above last Thursday's large negative reversal candlestick, investors could look at the high of that being a retracement target but nothing else. In other words, these gains are great, but there's more work to be done to say the downside is over.
Both the C (S&P) and S (DWCPF) fund's charts did find support at key moving averages last, and that's is encouraging, but bottoms are not made until overhead resistance is taken out.
Both the C (S&P) and S (DWCPF) fund's charts did find support at key moving averages last, and that's is encouraging, but bottoms are not made until overhead resistance is taken out.
- Reaction score
- 2,136
The big move off of Friday's lows has the market slightly overbought in the very short term, so today feels like a little digestion of those gains, while others may be considering profit taking and preparing for another leg lower with bitcoin down again stopping that momentum for a day.
Small caps are doing well so breadth is quite positive.
Yields and the dollar are down.
Small caps are doing well so breadth is quite positive.
Yields and the dollar are down.
- Reaction score
- 2,136
After an awful start, November is trying to redeem itself with an explosive rally in the final week of the month, with some of the best Thanksgiving week action we've seen in a long time.
All of the TSP stock funds are up nicely for a 4th straight day. Bonds are down as yields rebound this morning. The dollar has turned lower again.
The Volatility Index is showing the shift as it has fallen below two support levels after a second spike in two month. Holiday trading is here.
Meanwhile, fear is still in the air, and that becomes fuel for a rally as the fearful start to buy again.
All of the TSP stock funds are up nicely for a 4th straight day. Bonds are down as yields rebound this morning. The dollar has turned lower again.
The Volatility Index is showing the shift as it has fallen below two support levels after a second spike in two month. Holiday trading is here.
Meanwhile, fear is still in the air, and that becomes fuel for a rally as the fearful start to buy again.
- Reaction score
- 2,136
Barring any late shenanigans on this half day of trading, it looks like we will be seeing a 5th straight day of gains for the major indices, and a rare Thanksgiving week sweep for the bulls posting a gain every day.
There were levels on the chart being tested today but that resistance has so far been easily taken out.
The talk this week is that we are now on the verge of another Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal. We got one in late April and the S&P 500 rallied 23% over the following six months.
Yields are up this morning and the dollar is falling. The weak dollar is helping gold, oil, and bitcoin rally this morning.
The stocks market closes at 1 pm ET today. The TSP deadline is still noon ET.
There were levels on the chart being tested today but that resistance has so far been easily taken out.
The talk this week is that we are now on the verge of another Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal. We got one in late April and the S&P 500 rallied 23% over the following six months.
Yields are up this morning and the dollar is falling. The weak dollar is helping gold, oil, and bitcoin rally this morning.
The stocks market closes at 1 pm ET today. The TSP deadline is still noon ET.
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- Reaction score
- 2,136
Stocks opened the new week on the downside after a slide in crypto-currency prices over the weekend had traders on edge.
Technically the loss in the S&P 500 filled in a small open gap between Wednesday's close and Friday's low. There are two other "stealth gaps" like this open shown in red that could be in play, but these stealth gaps can be considered filled by some traders and not as meaningful, but Friday's is now filled. Also, the high on Friday filled a stealth gap from mid-November.
A big jump in the 10-year yield isn't helping today, and we'll just have to see if the 50-day average just needed testing again OR if last week was just a pre-holiday reversal that is being reversed back? Same for stocks?
This very old Thanksgiving seasonality chart from sentimentrader.com shows that post-Thanksgiving does have a bearish bias, as does the first part of December. But it tends to be the set up for the eventual Santa Claus rally.
Source: www.sentimentrader.com
At 24 (out of 100), the CNN Fear and Greed Index remains in the Extreme Fear zone.
Technically the loss in the S&P 500 filled in a small open gap between Wednesday's close and Friday's low. There are two other "stealth gaps" like this open shown in red that could be in play, but these stealth gaps can be considered filled by some traders and not as meaningful, but Friday's is now filled. Also, the high on Friday filled a stealth gap from mid-November.
A big jump in the 10-year yield isn't helping today, and we'll just have to see if the 50-day average just needed testing again OR if last week was just a pre-holiday reversal that is being reversed back? Same for stocks?
This very old Thanksgiving seasonality chart from sentimentrader.com shows that post-Thanksgiving does have a bearish bias, as does the first part of December. But it tends to be the set up for the eventual Santa Claus rally.
Source: www.sentimentrader.com
At 24 (out of 100), the CNN Fear and Greed Index remains in the Extreme Fear zone.
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- Reaction score
- 2,136
Stocks are up this morning but feeling a little pressure after Monday's decline woke up the bears. Bitcoin is up big this morning after Monday's sell off and these wide swings in the cryptos do have traders on their toes after recent liquidations in over-leveraged accounts.
December's bullish seasonality doesn't get fully underway until later in the month but November's washout selling may have created a lot of underinvested accounts that are looking for dips to buy, so weakness could get bought quickly.
The market feels like it wants to go higher, and the Fed should be paving a bullish path, but other catalysts, whether it is the cryptos or geopolitical events, have investors concerned. The question most are asking is whether to buy the fear, or sell the rallies?
December's bullish seasonality doesn't get fully underway until later in the month but November's washout selling may have created a lot of underinvested accounts that are looking for dips to buy, so weakness could get bought quickly.
The market feels like it wants to go higher, and the Fed should be paving a bullish path, but other catalysts, whether it is the cryptos or geopolitical events, have investors concerned. The question most are asking is whether to buy the fear, or sell the rallies?
- Reaction score
- 2,136
Much weaker than expected ADP employment data helped send yields and the dollar down this morning, although the 10-year has already bounced well off its lows, filling in the gap down open.
The dollar will be looking for support from the 50-day average after breaking below another layer of support this morning.
Small caps are leading and so far and the the bull flag and the old descending resistance line are holding as support on the S&P 500 (C-fund.)
Gold, oil, and bitcoin are all up on the weaker dollar.
The dollar will be looking for support from the 50-day average after breaking below another layer of support this morning.
Small caps are leading and so far and the the bull flag and the old descending resistance line are holding as support on the S&P 500 (C-fund.)
Gold, oil, and bitcoin are all up on the weaker dollar.
- Reaction score
- 2,136
It's quiet out there and stocks are mostly flat this Thursday morning, although small caps are catching a bid again.
Yields are up after a better than expected jobless claims report, and the dollar is down slightly. The I-fund is leading with the help of the weak dollar.
Despite yields moving higher on stranger data, the small caps of the S-fund are leading on the upside. There's always a battle going on between potentially lower interest rates and a growing economy. A stronger economy is usually equated with rising rates. Small caps like lower rates and a strong economy (who doesn't?) so that's the battle this morning and the stronger economy is winning out.
Here's that rally in the 10-year Treasury Yield following that strong jobless claims data. Higher yields means lower bond prices (aka F-fund.) It looks like some kind of head and shoulders, but which way does it want to go?
Gold and bitcoin are flat and oil is up.
Yields are up after a better than expected jobless claims report, and the dollar is down slightly. The I-fund is leading with the help of the weak dollar.
Despite yields moving higher on stranger data, the small caps of the S-fund are leading on the upside. There's always a battle going on between potentially lower interest rates and a growing economy. A stronger economy is usually equated with rising rates. Small caps like lower rates and a strong economy (who doesn't?) so that's the battle this morning and the stronger economy is winning out.
Here's that rally in the 10-year Treasury Yield following that strong jobless claims data. Higher yields means lower bond prices (aka F-fund.) It looks like some kind of head and shoulders, but which way does it want to go?
Gold and bitcoin are flat and oil is up.
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