03/24/26
Stocks rebounded on Monday after President Trump gave a dovish assessment of the situation in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. The price of oil fell dramatically, which was the catalyst for the rally in stocks. The gains were impressive, but the action was not, as the highs of the day were once again made early in the trading day, with the gains slipping throughout the day, despite the 1% to 2% plus gains in the TSP stock fund indices. Bonds rallied with yields falling along with oil.
The Dow was up nearly 1100 at the highs of the day but closed up "just" 631. The action was questionable, but obviously any 1% gain means something, and every bottom starts with a move off the lows. The question is whether we will see lower lows.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) closed in an area that had the bulls scratching their heads. After the tremendous morning gains, the index slipped lower all day and closed near the lows of the day, and back below the 200-day average and the old gap, so technically, this has issues. The high volume trading on Friday triggered by options expiration, along with the Fed meeting last Wednesday, does set up a potential turning point, but as of now, it's too early to say because this chart needs some improving.
The price of oil fell sharply, and while it did close off the lows of the day, it did lose 9% and created a negative outside reversal day. Despite this being a typically bearish sign for oil, we had a similar fake out to the the downside on March 10, so we need more information here and that blue bull flag may still be in play.
With oil down, the 10-year Treasury Yield pulled back with it. The trouble here is that the lows of the day was right at the breakout levels from the inverted head and shoulders pattern. Resistance, once broken, can act as support.
The dollar dropped 0.43% helping the I-fund to a healthy gain, despite the Asian markets being deep in the red on Monday.
The Dow Transportation Index was up over 1% but look where it ran into trouble - at some old broken support, after finding support at the purple average, which had been holding on prior tests.
Market bottoms can come in several different ways, or the lows can turn into lower lows. You never know until it is in hindsight. The midday selling yesterday told us that there were people still willing to sell at these reduced levels. And that was after a massive FOMO market rally at the open yesterday, so someone is waiting for these rallies to sell. Should we?
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) made a similar swan dive off the highs yesterday to close below the 200-day average. Those are some ugly words for an index that just gained 2% on the day. It looks vulnerable. Clearly there is an appetite to buy if the news is good, but the bears are not shy about selling rallies.
ACWX (I-fund) had a big gain despite a sea of red in the Asian markets on Monday. The European and South American markets were strong helping create the 2.5% gain in the ACWX, but the chart failed at the 100-day average and also looks vulnerable.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied yesterday, closed off the highs, and failed at the old broken support lines. All of these charts are in same position, battling resistance in an oversold environment.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rebounded on Monday after President Trump gave a dovish assessment of the situation in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. The price of oil fell dramatically, which was the catalyst for the rally in stocks. The gains were impressive, but the action was not, as the highs of the day were once again made early in the trading day, with the gains slipping throughout the day, despite the 1% to 2% plus gains in the TSP stock fund indices. Bonds rallied with yields falling along with oil.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
The Dow was up nearly 1100 at the highs of the day but closed up "just" 631. The action was questionable, but obviously any 1% gain means something, and every bottom starts with a move off the lows. The question is whether we will see lower lows.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) closed in an area that had the bulls scratching their heads. After the tremendous morning gains, the index slipped lower all day and closed near the lows of the day, and back below the 200-day average and the old gap, so technically, this has issues. The high volume trading on Friday triggered by options expiration, along with the Fed meeting last Wednesday, does set up a potential turning point, but as of now, it's too early to say because this chart needs some improving.
The price of oil fell sharply, and while it did close off the lows of the day, it did lose 9% and created a negative outside reversal day. Despite this being a typically bearish sign for oil, we had a similar fake out to the the downside on March 10, so we need more information here and that blue bull flag may still be in play.
With oil down, the 10-year Treasury Yield pulled back with it. The trouble here is that the lows of the day was right at the breakout levels from the inverted head and shoulders pattern. Resistance, once broken, can act as support.
The dollar dropped 0.43% helping the I-fund to a healthy gain, despite the Asian markets being deep in the red on Monday.
The Dow Transportation Index was up over 1% but look where it ran into trouble - at some old broken support, after finding support at the purple average, which had been holding on prior tests.
Market bottoms can come in several different ways, or the lows can turn into lower lows. You never know until it is in hindsight. The midday selling yesterday told us that there were people still willing to sell at these reduced levels. And that was after a massive FOMO market rally at the open yesterday, so someone is waiting for these rallies to sell. Should we?
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) made a similar swan dive off the highs yesterday to close below the 200-day average. Those are some ugly words for an index that just gained 2% on the day. It looks vulnerable. Clearly there is an appetite to buy if the news is good, but the bears are not shy about selling rallies.
ACWX (I-fund) had a big gain despite a sea of red in the Asian markets on Monday. The European and South American markets were strong helping create the 2.5% gain in the ACWX, but the chart failed at the 100-day average and also looks vulnerable.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied yesterday, closed off the highs, and failed at the old broken support lines. All of these charts are in same position, battling resistance in an oversold environment.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
