03/17/26
Stocks rallied to start the new week after oil prices pulled back with no unexpected escalation in the war in Iran over the weekend. This helped ease investors' minds, but the action had a lackluster feel to it with trading volume muted, and the highs of the day basically coming in the first hour of trading, although there was a headline driven spike late in the day that faded quickly. Bond yields and the dollar came down helping bonds and the F-fund rally, and the I-fund led the day - if the TSP confirms the gains in the international indices.
Stocks had hit their highs in the first hour of trading yesterday - that is until Nvidia's CEO announced that they had $1 trillion in backlog orders going out to 2027 and that spiked the indices to new intraday highs just after 3 PM yesterday, but that pop and drop was over as quickly as it started.
Market breadth was strong with both trading issues and trading volume both more than 2 - 1 in favor of advancing over declining. But it wasn't overwhelming with the indices floundering after those morning highs and the S&P closing close to the middle of the day's trading range, so the bulls have more work to do.
The fact that oil was down 5% on the day was a start and a good reason to see investors buying, but again nothing has been resolved so there is tentative action out there. You can see the trend is still up in oil, but a 5% decline is helpful. Another loss today could break that red rising support line.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) posted a healthy 1% gain on Monday, which erased all of Friday's losses, and then some. Trading volume was average at best, and I know many of us would like to see some kind of heavy trading volume washout kind of day, but some previous lows have had similar half-hearted trading volume at their lows, as I marked with the red arrows below. That spike in trading volume in December on the chart was the December expiration day, and not any kind of capitulation.
It looked productive, but without any bullish news, the bears have an opportunity to push this lower again.
The 10-year Treasury Yield fell sharply, helping the F-fund to a nice gain on Monday. The 200-day moving average comes into play often on this chart so I wouldn't be surprised to see 4.18% soon, but then that becomes a key pivot point. If oil moves lower the 10-year yield should fall below the average, especially with the employment picture deteriorating. But if oil rallies, it will be tough to keep yields down. The F-fund moves counter to yields.
The dollar was down helping the I-fund lead yesterday, but it merely filled in a gap and remains in an uptrend.
The Transportation Index was up modestly yesterday, but closed well off its highs, and the price of oil is probably going to have to ease more to help this chart as the index flounders below the support of some key moving averages, and it is a long way down to the 200-day average.
The small caps of the Russell 2000 are also below the 50 and 100-day averages and already nearly testing the 200-day average. It's typical, but there's no law that it has to hit that average, and we saw it rebound in late November just short of the 200-day average.
The 2-day FOMC Meeting kicks off today and tomorrow we will almost certainly get an announcement that there will be no rate cut this month, but we may get some clues as to their future plans. Perhaps the job losses in February and / or the spike in oil prices has changed their outlook, and of course any surprises will be a market mover.
Administrative Note: We have a chance for a little distraction this week with the March Madness Tournament starting. So, if you're ready for our annual March Madness Contest, please go here for more info! It's free and prizes are awarded. The deadline to enter is the start of the first game on Thursday.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) had a lot of good news, bad news action yesterday. Good news: It gained 1% on the day. Bad news - the index closed at the lows of the day. Good news: It closed back above the 200-day average. Bad news: It is still well above a head and shoulders' pattern breakdown target. Like late November, if this can hold here at the 200-day average, it would obviously be the the time to buy. Otherwise, the next support area would be near 2375.
ACWX (I-fund) rallied 2% yesterday as it tries to carve out a low, although maybe this is a bear flag forming? It's too early to say, but holding again at the 100-day average would not be a first as it did so in November. There has only been one close below it during this pullback so far.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied on the lower oil prices, but the chart has been beaten up and being back in the wedge-like formation means there no clear advantage at the moment. The fact that it broke out to the upside back in February does tell us that resistance isn't that strong, but oil must stay below 100 to keep yields down. Bonds go up when yields come down.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied to start the new week after oil prices pulled back with no unexpected escalation in the war in Iran over the weekend. This helped ease investors' minds, but the action had a lackluster feel to it with trading volume muted, and the highs of the day basically coming in the first hour of trading, although there was a headline driven spike late in the day that faded quickly. Bond yields and the dollar came down helping bonds and the F-fund rally, and the I-fund led the day - if the TSP confirms the gains in the international indices.
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Stocks had hit their highs in the first hour of trading yesterday - that is until Nvidia's CEO announced that they had $1 trillion in backlog orders going out to 2027 and that spiked the indices to new intraday highs just after 3 PM yesterday, but that pop and drop was over as quickly as it started.
Market breadth was strong with both trading issues and trading volume both more than 2 - 1 in favor of advancing over declining. But it wasn't overwhelming with the indices floundering after those morning highs and the S&P closing close to the middle of the day's trading range, so the bulls have more work to do.
The fact that oil was down 5% on the day was a start and a good reason to see investors buying, but again nothing has been resolved so there is tentative action out there. You can see the trend is still up in oil, but a 5% decline is helpful. Another loss today could break that red rising support line.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) posted a healthy 1% gain on Monday, which erased all of Friday's losses, and then some. Trading volume was average at best, and I know many of us would like to see some kind of heavy trading volume washout kind of day, but some previous lows have had similar half-hearted trading volume at their lows, as I marked with the red arrows below. That spike in trading volume in December on the chart was the December expiration day, and not any kind of capitulation.
It looked productive, but without any bullish news, the bears have an opportunity to push this lower again.
The 10-year Treasury Yield fell sharply, helping the F-fund to a nice gain on Monday. The 200-day moving average comes into play often on this chart so I wouldn't be surprised to see 4.18% soon, but then that becomes a key pivot point. If oil moves lower the 10-year yield should fall below the average, especially with the employment picture deteriorating. But if oil rallies, it will be tough to keep yields down. The F-fund moves counter to yields.
The dollar was down helping the I-fund lead yesterday, but it merely filled in a gap and remains in an uptrend.
The Transportation Index was up modestly yesterday, but closed well off its highs, and the price of oil is probably going to have to ease more to help this chart as the index flounders below the support of some key moving averages, and it is a long way down to the 200-day average.
The small caps of the Russell 2000 are also below the 50 and 100-day averages and already nearly testing the 200-day average. It's typical, but there's no law that it has to hit that average, and we saw it rebound in late November just short of the 200-day average.
The 2-day FOMC Meeting kicks off today and tomorrow we will almost certainly get an announcement that there will be no rate cut this month, but we may get some clues as to their future plans. Perhaps the job losses in February and / or the spike in oil prices has changed their outlook, and of course any surprises will be a market mover.
Administrative Note: We have a chance for a little distraction this week with the March Madness Tournament starting. So, if you're ready for our annual March Madness Contest, please go here for more info! It's free and prizes are awarded. The deadline to enter is the start of the first game on Thursday.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) had a lot of good news, bad news action yesterday. Good news: It gained 1% on the day. Bad news - the index closed at the lows of the day. Good news: It closed back above the 200-day average. Bad news: It is still well above a head and shoulders' pattern breakdown target. Like late November, if this can hold here at the 200-day average, it would obviously be the the time to buy. Otherwise, the next support area would be near 2375.
ACWX (I-fund) rallied 2% yesterday as it tries to carve out a low, although maybe this is a bear flag forming? It's too early to say, but holding again at the 100-day average would not be a first as it did so in November. There has only been one close below it during this pullback so far.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied on the lower oil prices, but the chart has been beaten up and being back in the wedge-like formation means there no clear advantage at the moment. The fact that it broke out to the upside back in February does tell us that resistance isn't that strong, but oil must stay below 100 to keep yields down. Bonds go up when yields come down.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
