01/22/26
The framework for a deal involving Greenland helped the stock market snap back yesterday from Tuesday's losses, but there are still some technical issues on the charts that need addressing before the threat of a pullback is over. Small caps seem to be for real as the streak of outperforming the large cap indices continues. The high flying Japanese 10-year Treasury Yield pulled back yesterday, helping the cause. US bond yields also fell helping the F-fund rally.
Tuesday's sell off left a lot of open gaps on many charts, and Wednesday was the day to try to fill in those gaps. Gaps are lures, but sometimes filling the open gap is all that the a move in that direction can muster. That could be put to the test today, and bonds were no exception.
The 10-year Treasury Yield had a big gap up on Tuesday, and it spent the day yesterday trying to fill it, but that is textbook technical analysis, as is the potential for retesting the top of the bull flag - testing that old resistance as new support.
BND (bonds / F-fund) had a big day with yields plummeting, and here it is right back above support and the 50-day average. But again, it is filling in Tuesday's open gap, which is typical action and not necessarily a change in direction.
It didn't hurt the rally in stocks yesterday that Japan's 10-year Treasury Yield pulled back after the huge move the day before, and the bond price stopped going down, but like many of the charts that I will show today, it may only be in the process of being lured by the open gap.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) rallied back from Tuesday's sell off and regained about half of that loss. It isn't typical to see those days with big losses that close near the lows of the day (red arrows), snap back the next day, and resume the rally, but that is actually what has been happening in recent months. We saw it yesterday, but it was trying to fill that overhead open gap, but didn't quite fill it and it closed back below the 20-day average, so this has a little work to do. It looks vulnerable here, but in recent months these have worked out. I'm a little suspicious because...
... we still have this Wyckoff Distribution pattern to deal with. A failed retest of the breakdown is part of the pattern.
Admin note: We are having an annual subscription sale this week for new or current subscribers! As always, if you have an annual subscription that does not expire this month, or if you want to convert a monthly subscription to annual, the sale will allow you to tack on an additional year or two to your current subscriptions at the sale price.
Thanks so much to all of you who have taken advantage of the Premium Service's Sale! I am always humbled by the reception and I only hope we can meet or beat your expectations in each service.
As you can imagine, the cost of doing business has risen quite a bit over the past 20 years. Over that time the price of TSP Talk Plus and RevShark's Premium Services have remained the same, and we are planning a modest price increase later this year. This sale provides you and your friends the opportunity to lock in prices that we may not be able to offer again. Spread the word to anyone who you think would benefit from a TSP Talk Premium Subscription.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
The DWCPF (S-fund) is back above the neckline of its inverted head and shoulders, and really couldn't look any better, but the one caveat is that yesterday's rally filled in an open gap, and this is where it might get sticky. Things may not continue on as easily as it has been to start the year. The open gap near 2525 is a potential target, but the bears would have to turn things upside down to get that filled.
The ACWX (I-fund index) rallied back 1% yesterday after breaking down from its narrow ascending channel on Tuesday. It did so with the dollar rallying, so that's impressive, but that is partially why the I-fund lagged the US funds.
UUP was yet another chart that needed to reverse and start filling in Tuesday's open gap.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The framework for a deal involving Greenland helped the stock market snap back yesterday from Tuesday's losses, but there are still some technical issues on the charts that need addressing before the threat of a pullback is over. Small caps seem to be for real as the streak of outperforming the large cap indices continues. The high flying Japanese 10-year Treasury Yield pulled back yesterday, helping the cause. US bond yields also fell helping the F-fund rally.
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Tuesday's sell off left a lot of open gaps on many charts, and Wednesday was the day to try to fill in those gaps. Gaps are lures, but sometimes filling the open gap is all that the a move in that direction can muster. That could be put to the test today, and bonds were no exception.
The 10-year Treasury Yield had a big gap up on Tuesday, and it spent the day yesterday trying to fill it, but that is textbook technical analysis, as is the potential for retesting the top of the bull flag - testing that old resistance as new support.
BND (bonds / F-fund) had a big day with yields plummeting, and here it is right back above support and the 50-day average. But again, it is filling in Tuesday's open gap, which is typical action and not necessarily a change in direction.
It didn't hurt the rally in stocks yesterday that Japan's 10-year Treasury Yield pulled back after the huge move the day before, and the bond price stopped going down, but like many of the charts that I will show today, it may only be in the process of being lured by the open gap.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) rallied back from Tuesday's sell off and regained about half of that loss. It isn't typical to see those days with big losses that close near the lows of the day (red arrows), snap back the next day, and resume the rally, but that is actually what has been happening in recent months. We saw it yesterday, but it was trying to fill that overhead open gap, but didn't quite fill it and it closed back below the 20-day average, so this has a little work to do. It looks vulnerable here, but in recent months these have worked out. I'm a little suspicious because...
... we still have this Wyckoff Distribution pattern to deal with. A failed retest of the breakdown is part of the pattern.
Admin note: We are having an annual subscription sale this week for new or current subscribers! As always, if you have an annual subscription that does not expire this month, or if you want to convert a monthly subscription to annual, the sale will allow you to tack on an additional year or two to your current subscriptions at the sale price.
Thanks so much to all of you who have taken advantage of the Premium Service's Sale! I am always humbled by the reception and I only hope we can meet or beat your expectations in each service.
As you can imagine, the cost of doing business has risen quite a bit over the past 20 years. Over that time the price of TSP Talk Plus and RevShark's Premium Services have remained the same, and we are planning a modest price increase later this year. This sale provides you and your friends the opportunity to lock in prices that we may not be able to offer again. Spread the word to anyone who you think would benefit from a TSP Talk Premium Subscription.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
The DWCPF (S-fund) is back above the neckline of its inverted head and shoulders, and really couldn't look any better, but the one caveat is that yesterday's rally filled in an open gap, and this is where it might get sticky. Things may not continue on as easily as it has been to start the year. The open gap near 2525 is a potential target, but the bears would have to turn things upside down to get that filled.
The ACWX (I-fund index) rallied back 1% yesterday after breaking down from its narrow ascending channel on Tuesday. It did so with the dollar rallying, so that's impressive, but that is partially why the I-fund lagged the US funds.
UUP was yet another chart that needed to reverse and start filling in Tuesday's open gap.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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