tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

WWBTD? (What Would BirchTree Do)

What else but buy, buy, buy?!

 

[FishinFool]

WWBTD? (What Would BirchTree Do)

Far be it from me to second guess that big player based on the reading I did this a.m.

"We are Dwarves in the company of a Giant!"

--Con Stapleton, Deadwood


p.s. j/k Birchtree it will take me a long time (if ever) to get to your level

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

BT is more an investor than a trader. Keep it in perspective. If you want to be like BT, 80%I and 20%C and hold it. New investments into C.

 

[FishinFool]

BT is more an investor than a trader. Keep it in perspective. If you want to be like BT, 80%I and 20%C and hold it. New investments into C.

Interesting... in diplomatic terms, I'm too much of a chicken for that recipe. Although the idea of at least putting a temporary toe in the I fund someday after one of the future international market downturns, which has not occured to me until recently, might be worth looking at. So many different pullbacks to attack! After the close of business

 

[JimmyJoe]

BT is more an investor than a trader. Keep it in perspective. If you want to be like BT, 80%I and 20%C and hold it. New investments into C.

I liked this comment.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Interesting... in diplomatic terms, I'm too much of a chicken for that recipe. Although the idea of at least putting a temporary toe in the I fund someday after one of the future international market downturns, which has not occured to me until recently, might be worth looking at. So many different pullbacks to attack! After the close of business

Read up on the I fund before you dip your toes in there. The FV (fair value) will get you... on a day you think it will be up 1%, it will only be up .5%

 

[FishinFool]

Read up on the I fund before you dip your toes in there. The FV (fair value) will get you... on a day you think it will be up 1%, it will only be up .5%

Interesting and thanks I'll do that. I noticed today that a few of the Autotracker better performers in 2012 and 2011 had gone 100% I in various months and was surprised to see that. I've stayed away from it entirely to date as I don't know enough about it... and by the looks of it that wasn't a bad idea!

Update: just read up on I Fund "fair value" on TSP website. Hmmm... a cynical retirement fund builder might get the idea that certain Powers take a dim view of market timing! Warning appreciated.

 

[tsptalk]

One thing to know about the I-fund is how it is directly inversely correlated with the dollar. If the dollar is up 1%, the I-fund will do what the EAFE did minus 1%. If the dollar is down 1%, add the EAFE plus 1%.

 

[FishinFool]

One thing to know about the I-fund is how it is directly inversely correlated with the dollar. If the dollar is up 1%, the I-fund will do what the EAFE did minus 1%. If the dollar is down 1%, add the EAFE plus 1%.

Thanks! I can see that I need a much better system of charts, for one thing (scurries off to find a good dollar performance chart)

 

[wavecoder]

Bad earnings report on apple could be the catalyst for a nasty looking H&S on the nasdaq's weekly chart, could get ugly.

nasdaq futures down 1.52%, yeouch

 

[Sensei]

Just checked on Europe and our futures. Looks like a test of the 20 day SMA is in the cards.

 

[nnuut]

The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away
Written by Lance Roberts | Tuesday, February 05, 2013

The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away - StreetTalk Live

 

[Birchtree]

That was a nice read, however I'm not going to fight the Fed. I believe the last cyclical bear may have happened in 2012 or around the bottom of March 09 - at any rate I'm staying long and strong.

 

[tsptalk]

The market isn't exactly rolling over here and that's a positive, but you know the bears are just hiding and waiting for some bad news to make their move. The easy money has been made and we may need some selling to scare the nervous bulls away so the smart money can come in and get their bargains.

But be careful bears. Those freight trains are hard to stop.

 

[tsptalk]

CNBC is not quite as giddy about Dow 14,000 this morning. Maybe that's a bullish sign. They were falling all over themselves when it was nearing it the first time a few days ago.

The S&P is still below that 1525 mark by about 0.5%. Will these two areas be resistance, or will momentum take the indices through?

 

[JTH]

CNBC is not quite as giddy about Dow 14,000 this morning. Maybe that's a bullish sign. They were falling all over themselves when it was nearing it the first time a few days ago.

The S&P is still below that 1525 mark by about 0.5%. Will these two areas be resistance, or will momentum take the indices through?

Being at home the last couple days, I've noticed the shift in sentiment, everyone is ready to embrace the pullback. It's very difficult to time the markets when they only go in one direction, and I doubt many are outperforming the markets, so many of these hedge funds are starting to get worried (at least that's my uneducated guess.)

 

[wavecoder]

TNA over $80 now, and I thought it was crazy when it went over $70 :nuts:

nasdaq still bothers me, it hasn't been able to make any real progress in weeks, just a lot of choppy sideways action. very bullish if QQQ can close above 68.5, but will probably need cooperation from apple. on the bright side, apple's chart is showing some strength and will likely close that gap at 500 soon (i'll be surprised if it doesn't)

 

[wavecoder]

Will the Russell 2000 hit 1000 this year?

taking bets now, whoever guesses right wins 5 attaboys

 

[wavecoder]

on track for 7 positive weeks in a row, looks like that hasn't happened once in the last 5 years. when was the last time we had such a streak?

 

[JTH]

on track for 7 positive weeks in a row, looks like that hasn't happened once in the last 5 years. when was the last time we had such a streak?

Dec 2010 followed by a 2-week pause, then 3 more weeks of upside. Had 7 weeks in 2007, and 9 in 2004, both followed with sideways action.