tsptalk's Market Talk

[JTH]

More flat action as the 'brick wall' flat top on the S&P held again. Not bad action though - working off the overbought conditions without pulling back.

Nice little bounce for Apple, closing up 20 to 506. Still an open gap near 520.

I forget the weighting of Apple on the NASDAQ 100, with a current Death Cross, I will say it has held up well, and I'm glad it hasn't held down the indexes (too much.)

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[Sensei]

Futures just busted loose. Dyamn!

 

[tsptalk]

There's the breakout - but will the S&P close above 1374 - the September high?

 

[wavecoder]

russel up .88% dang!

 

[Sensei]

Just so's I have it straight - both the markets and TSP will be closed Monday, right? Not the TSP only, while the markets toil on (I'm speaking domestically only, of course).

 

[tsptalk]

yes, I am almost certain the NYSE is closed.

 

[wavecoder]

Crazy to think that the VIX has even more room to fall, possibly under 10? has that ever happened?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Crazy to think that the VIX has even more room to fall, possibly under 10? has that ever happened?

Not since 94-95 as far as I can tell

 

[craigerv]

I'm not sure I really know what the VIX is showing. I understand its a measure of volatility, but does anyone know how it's calibrated?

 

[tsptalk]

To me its saying there are a lot of folks who sold in December to lock in the lower capital gains rates, and now they have to buy back in on every dip.

I think the intermediate term VIX futures are showing less complacency knowing the debt ceiling is on deck.

 

[Birchtree]

Folks who are waiting for a buying dip may be terribly disappointed - 2013 may closely follow the pattern of 1998, when stocks rose more than 35% from the October lows through January 1999. This end of the outperformance in bonds likely means too much money chasing too few stocks and that means higher prices. We are set up to do work now in the 1474 - 1600 area. There is so much money still trapped out of stocks - this rally phase is about positioning and it will continue for perhaps months.

 

[wavecoder]

next week should be interesting, google (1/22) and apple (1/23) are reporting for 4Q

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Folks who are waiting for a buying dip may be terribly disappointed - 2013 may closely follow the pattern of 1998, when stocks rose more than 35% from the October lows through January 1999. This end of the outperformance in bonds likely means too much money chasing too few stocks and that means higher prices. We are set up to do work now in the 1474 - 1600 area. There is so much money still trapped out of stocks - this rally phase is about positioning and it will continue for perhaps months.

I don't know who you consider "folks", but with baby boomers now retiring, there is no way they are going to risk putting their money back in equities now if they have taken it out already. I would assume the baby boomers probably hold the greatest amount of funds out there as a population subset simply because of their current ages and when they started investing. I think you'll be waiting a long time for another 1998/1999, but who knows, I did see a pig fly in a commercial last night........................

Besides, TSP recommends they hold the L income fund now, which is 74% G fund. Think money market city..............

 

[Handballer]

Folks who are waiting for a buying dip may be terribly disappointed - 2013 may closely follow the pattern of 1998, when stocks rose more than 35% from the October lows through January 1999. This end of the outperformance in bonds likely means too much money chasing too few stocks and that means higher prices. We are set up to do work now in the 1474 - 1600 area. There is so much money still trapped out of stocks - this rally phase is about positioning and it will continue for perhaps months.

Well!, glad to see you cheering for this market. Thanks for the info. I have too much crap (G and L funds) now. February will be more into the CSI funds. Aiming for 2% or more by end of February.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm a retired baby boomer and every dime I own is invested in equities - no savings, no CDs. But I do have the security of a working wife. So I'm letting it all hang out in preparation for the mad dash of money that is going to rotate out of bonds into my pockets. It's a generational opportunity to make the dough.

 

[wavecoder]

the dollar (UUP) looks like it's about to take another nose dive to the bottom bollinger, more tail wind for this rally?

 

[wavecoder]

Will the VIX go below 10 this month?

 

[wavecoder]

Nice, it should get interesting I know all good things come to an end, but this rally was fun. Powered by some ben bernake special sauce, steroids, viagra and extenze

 

[FishinFool]

Dow up 80 points with less than an hour to go. I see they've extended the debt ceiling thru May 19 as expected.... but how many more positive runs can there be before a downturn of some significance!

Never mind. Just wanted to say I appreciate this site, there is a lot here and the daily Commentary is a great service to this would-be macro market timer and all around amateur equities warrior!!

No more moves this month unless remainder to the G... sigh!

80% G, 10% F, 10% 2050 as of 1/23/13 IFT (masses a-buyin', bring on the pullback!)

 

[wavecoder]

WWBTD? (What Would BirchTree Do)