tsptalk's Market Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Agreed. That's why we're seeing the VIX over 20 today. Haven't seen that since June.

Had I bought VXX when I posted below (12/19), I'd be up over 15% today. *sigh* Such is life.

 

[tsptalk]

Had I bought VXX when I posted below (12/19), I'd be up over 15% today. *sigh* Such is life.

It's tough to pull the trigger on those highly volatile trades. Better safe than sorry, I guess.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX is telling us to buy'em now - no sense in waiting for a better entry point - there won't be one any cheaper.

 

[tsptalk]

I see 2 positives for next week... The sentiment survey was showing a lot of bearishness out there. And in January, the capital gains selling will stop. That same situation triggered a big rally in Jan 1987.

 

[CrabClaw]

I see 2 positives for next week... The sentiment survey was showing a lot of bearishness out there. And in January, the capital gains selling will stop. That same situation triggered a big rally in Jan 1987.

That chart you posted sticks with me. that could very easily play out.

 

[tsptalk]

Of course there wasn't a fiscal cliff in 87.

 

[CrabClaw]

true that

 

[wavecoder]

will the cliff get resolved by the 31st? unless congress and the white house are willing to budge all of a sudden, my prediction is 'no'

plus are big money players more likely to sell off all their gains before the new year to avoid the higher taxes on capital gains? could create a new buying opportunity in january if that's the case.

 

[nnuut]

Futures arn't lookin' to good! Stock Futures of Major World Indexes - Bloomberg

 

[JTH]

Futures arn't lookin' to good! Stock Futures of Major World Indexes - Bloomberg

The good news (if you can call it that) is the markets have not had more than 6 concurrent down-days this year. Monday is day number 6...

 

[nnuut]

Make that 7!

 

[tsptalk]

Futures arn't lookin' to good! Stock Futures of Major World Indexes - Bloomberg

That -226 on the Dow futures includes Friday's action (-160) so it's not quite as bad as it looks. -66 points will be easier to erase than -226.

If I heard correctly, they will be meeting again on Sunday. I'm not optimistic, but it could change things.

 

[Handballer]

Whatever. Glad I followed your lead into the G fund last week.

 

[tsptalk]

That -226 on the Dow futures includes Friday's action (-160) so it's not quite as bad as it looks. -66 points will be easier to erase than -226.

The Dow futures are up about 25-points as I write this Sunday night. But I believe fair value is about +66 as I mentioned on Friday so we're looking at an open of about down 40-points for the Dow if nothing changes.

 

[nnuut]

Appears to be in the green right now.
Dow Pre-Market Data, Stock Market Quotes, Fair Value, Futures, Volatility Index, World Markets Information - CNBC
[TABLE="class: data"]
[TR]
[TH="class: first text"]Index Close
[/TH]
[TH]Cur Future
[/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH="class: last"]Change
[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: first"]12938.11
[/TD]
[TD]12800.0
[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow"] 
[/TD]
[TD="class: last pos"]23.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: data"]
[TR]
[TH="class: first text"]Fair Val Close
[/TH]
[TH]Cur Future
[/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH="class: last"]Change
[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: first"]12866.11
[/TD]
[TD]12800.0
[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow"] 
[/TD]
[TD="class: last neg"]-66.11

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[tsptalk]

Oh, OK. I guess fair value was 89-points, not 66. That means we'd open down 66-points if nothing changes. You'd have to subtract 89 from the current +23. That's what the -66 is.

 

[nnuut]

Oh, OK. I guess fair value was 89-points, not 66. That means we'd open down 66-points if nothing changes. You'd have to subtract 89 from the current +23. That's what the -66 is.

Oh that's how it works?
How do we compare Bloomberg
Stock Futures

Americas

[TABLE="class: alt_rows_stat_table dual_border_data_table full_width index_table"]
[TR="class: data_header"]
[TH="class: name"]Index Future
[/TH]
[TH="class: date"]Future Date
[/TH]
[TH="class: value"]Last
[/TH]
[TH="class: value_change"]Net Change
[/TH]
[TH="class: value"]Open
[/TH]
[TH="class: value"]High
[/TH]
[TH="class: value"]Low
[/TH]
[TH="class: time last"]Time
[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: name"]DJIA INDEX
[/TD]
[TD="class: date"]Mar13
[/TD]
[TD="class: value"]12,799.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: value_change up"]+22.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: value"]12,757.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: value"]12,817.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: value"]12,757.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: time last"]20:38:57
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: name"]S&P 500
[/TD]
[TD="class: date"]Mar13
[/TD]
[TD="class: value"]1,388.10
[/TD]
[TD="class: value_change up"]+4.10
[/TD]
[TD="class: value"]1,388.20
[/TD]
[TD="class: value"]1,392.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: value"]1,383.80
[/TD]
[TD="class: time last"]20:41:07
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: name"]NASDAQ 100
[/TD]
[TD="class: date"]Mar13
[/TD]
[TD="class: value"]2,587.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: value_change up"]+1.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: value"]2,582.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: value"]2,592.50
[/TD]
[TD="class: value"]2,582.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: time last"]20:39:06
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Stock Futures of Major World Indexes - Bloomberg
With CNBC?
Pre-Market Data, Stock Market Quotes, Fair Value, Futures, Volatility Index, World Markets Information - CNBC
[TABLE="class: data"]
[TR]
[TH="class: first text"]Index Close
[/TH]
[TH]Cur Future
[/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH="class: last"]Change
[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: first"]12938.11
[/TD]
[TD]12804.0
[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow"] 
[/TD]
[TD="class: last pos"]27.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: data"]
[TR]
[TH="class: first text"]Fair Val Close
[/TH]
[TH]Cur Future
[/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH="class: last"]Change
[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: first"]12866.11
[/TD]
[TD]12804.0
[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow"] 
[/TD]
[TD="class: last neg"]-62.11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[tsptalk]

For some reason, only CNBC is smart enough, or thorough enough, to make the viewers aware of FV. If someone only looks at the futures they'd be very confused on the mornings where there is a big fair value adjustment.

 

[nnuut]

For some reason, only CNBC is smart enough, or thorough enough, to make the viewers aware of FV. If someone only looks at the futures they'd be very confused on the mornings where there is a big fair value adjustment.

Yes it is, if you don't know what's going on it can be Bum Dope!

 

[wavecoder]

dollar is up big right now, hmmm..