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Stocks opened lower with oil continuing to be the catalyst, and it is up almost 4% this morning, and that is pushing bond yields up as well.

Private credit issues caused Moody's to lower the credit rating of KKR to "junk."

Technically there is an open gap down by last Friday's closing price, and that will be a lure, but if oil continues to rally, we could see those lows get taken out. Otherwise, it may be a clean up job.

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The 10-year Treasury Yield backed off after hitting 4.4% for the first time since last summer.

The pullback in oil on Monday was just enough to fill in its open gap from March 12. But now there is a gap (on the USO chart) opened this morning up by 121.

Gold, silver, and bitcoin are all relatively flat. All are in major pullbacks off their highs.
 
Oil down, stocks up on news that end of war negotiations are in progress. Some of Iran's "demands" for a ceasefire are a little unrealistic so it's tough to say if this is serious, but the reaction in the stock market and the price of oil are positive - just not trend changing yet.

Oil is down sharply but it (the oil ETF USO) still trades within the open gap from March 11. No new lower low yet.

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The S&P 500 is currently back above its 200-day average, and that is a must on a closing basis because resistance is heaviest below 6000.

Gold, silver, and bitcoin are all up. Yields are down giving the F-fund a possible boost today.
 
The formula is still working. If oil is up, yields go up, and stocks do down.

Oil is up this morning, but the oil ETF chart is a mess with volatility and gaps that are trying to work themselves out.

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The indices are down, although the S-fund DWCPF just went positive after another successful test of the 200-day moving average this morning.

Gold, silver and bitcoin are down.
 
It's early but the initial action this Friday morning is what we have seen on many Friday mornings in recent months - selling.

Yields are up sharply with oil rising and getting closer to $100 / barrel again.

The 10-year hit 4.5% this morning for the first time since last June. It broke above some resistance, but has come off the worst levels, potentially creating a blow off top... for now?

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In this morning's commentary I mentioned that the S-fund's DWCPF may still be trying for a "V" bottom. That didn't take long to refute as it too is now testing Monday's lows.

Interestingly, the S and I-funds are still up for the week, but there's a lot of trading day left. Markets don't usually bottom on a Friday, but the market also loves to prove me wrong.

Gold and silver are up, bitcoin is down.
 
The pre-market futures were looking good after President Trump reported that they are in serious talks to end the operations in Iran. However, those gains were quickly diminished after the open bell sounded as the price of oil remained elevated and above 100.

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Surprisingly, the 10-year Treasury yield, which had been moving almost step for step with oil, is down sharply this morning and flirting with breaking its recent uptrend.

That may be part of what is keeping the S&P 500 positive, but also investors know they don't want to be on the wrong side of snap back rally that could be triggered at any time by a headline.

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The chart still looks dismal, but maybe getting close to "dismal enough."

Despite a rally in the dollar to new recent highs, gold, silver and bitcoin are all up this morning.
 
Interesting. Oil jumping explains why the S&P is down, but why isn't the VIX moving up (much?) It's basically flat at the moment.

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Stocks are up sharply, testing an open gap from last Friday, after the Wall Street Journal reported "Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz."

The fact that a gap is getting filled, and that early morning strength and early week strength has been getting sold regularly, certainly doesn't give confidence that this isn't anything more than a repeat, but perhaps some hope. So the bulls will want to see holding power, and follow-through.

This is a shortened holiday trading week so it could also be the start of a pre-holiday reversal from the main trend.

Lots of possibilities. Lots of emotions out there. So expect the volatility to continue, perhaps in both directions for a bit.

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Yields are down again and the 10-year broke below some rising support.

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Oil is down modestly, but hardly anything meaningful, especially if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked indefinitely.
 
We're getting some follow through today, and some moves above resistance, but some may still call this a dead cat bounce until market breath improves and, in the case of the S&P 500, the charts get back above their 200-day moving averages.

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It looks like the S-fund's DWCPF is moving above the 200-day but it needs to hold into the close, and for a couple of days.

It's a pre-holiday market and not always easy to trust. The headlines may dictate.

Oil is falling, and that is helping.
 
Classic bounce, failure at resistance. Not a great setup, but if the S&P 500 can get over 6600...

It seems to be trying to fill this morning's gap already. Typical action, but it could fail once filled.

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Yields were up, but falling fast. It did fill the gap already.

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And the VIX is also filling in the gap and remains elevated, but off the recent worst levels.
 
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Nice headline, media. The CNBC headline below after the close would have you believe today was a bad day for the stock market. Hardly.

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The Dow was the only major index down on the day.

There is still work to be done, but that was a massive positive reversal day, on the last day of the week, which has been awful for weeks, and heading into a 3-day weekend.

It could be a pre-holiday reversal that reverses back next week, but with oil up big, this was pretty good action.

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The stock market is closed on Friday, but we will get the March jobs report.
 
After last week's pre-holiday rally in a down trending market, all eyes are on the potential for a post holiday reversal back to the downtrend.

It's very early but the stock market opened modestly higher on Monday. Oil is flat after a weekend of interesting war headlines.

This is the first trading after the March jobs report was released on Friday. The numbers blew away estimates, and after February's lousy numbers, expectations weren't too high.

This has yields up as well this morning.

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Stocks are down this morning - perhaps the start of a Turnaround Tuesday after a week of rallying?

President Trump's ultimatum to Iran to either make a deal or face swift, and massive infrastructure destruction, and the deadline is tonight at 8 PM, and the market is concerned.

Oil is up. Bonds are down modestly (yields up), and gold is down, telling us there's no panic so perhaps the selling has already been exhausted, but by tonight's deadline, that could change?

It's a tough call because a late deal made tonight could send stocks soaring tomorrow, so it's a "place your bets" situation.

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