tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Stocks opened lower with oil continuing to be the catalyst, and it is up almost 4% this morning, and that is pushing bond yields up as well.

Private credit issues caused Moody's to lower the credit rating of KKR to "junk."

Technically there is an open gap down by last Friday's closing price, and that will be a lure, but if oil continues to rally, we could see those lows get taken out. Otherwise, it may be a clean up job.



The 10-year Treasury Yield backed off after hitting 4.4% for the first time since last summer.

The pullback in oil on Monday was just enough to fill in its open gap from March 12. But now there is a gap (on the USO chart) opened this morning up by 121.

Gold, silver, and bitcoin are all relatively flat. All are in major pullbacks off their highs.

 

[nasa1974]

My bond portfolio looks ok but my stock portfolio stinks.

 

[tsptalk]

Oil down, stocks up on news that end of war negotiations are in progress. Some of Iran's "demands" for a ceasefire are a little unrealistic so it's tough to say if this is serious, but the reaction in the stock market and the price of oil are positive - just not trend changing yet.

Oil is down sharply but it (the oil ETF USO) still trades within the open gap from March 11. No new lower low yet.



The S&P 500 is currently back above its 200-day average, and that is a must on a closing basis because resistance is heaviest below 6000.

Gold, silver, and bitcoin are all up. Yields are down giving the F-fund a possible boost today.

 

[tsptalk]

The formula is still working. If oil is up, yields go up, and stocks do down.

Oil is up this morning, but the oil ETF chart is a mess with volatility and gaps that are trying to work themselves out.



The indices are down, although the S-fund DWCPF just went positive after another successful test of the 200-day moving average this morning.

Gold, silver and bitcoin are down.

 

[tsptalk]

It's early but the initial action this Friday morning is what we have seen on many Friday mornings in recent months - selling.

Yields are up sharply with oil rising and getting closer to $100 / barrel again.

The 10-year hit 4.5% this morning for the first time since last June. It broke above some resistance, but has come off the worst levels, potentially creating a blow off top... for now?



In this morning's commentary I mentioned that the S-fund's DWCPF may still be trying for a "V" bottom. That didn't take long to refute as it too is now testing Monday's lows.

Interestingly, the S and I-funds are still up for the week, but there's a lot of trading day left. Markets don't usually bottom on a Friday, but the market also loves to prove me wrong.

Gold and silver are up, bitcoin is down.