04/14/26
After a brutal Sunday night futures session, stocks opened sharply lower on Monday, but off the overnight lows, and once that opening bell rang on Monday morning, the dip buyers were quick to do their thing with one late surge to the upside in the final 30 minutes of trading. Some indices created positive outside reversal days, leaving their open gaps behind -- for now.
The final market breadth was quite positive, which was a reversal of the morning action. The Nasdaq had more than five shares trading on the upside for every one on the downside. Pretty impressive considering this was the 9th straight gain for the Nasdaq so the momentum is strong but maybe signs of getting too lofty?
The price of oil was up yesterday but it closed well off the highs creating a negative reversal day, but it remains above rising support for now.
The 10-year Treasury Yield followed the oil trade and posted a negative reversal day, erasing the morning gains and creating a failed breakout above the resistance line. That is still a bull flag but yesterday's action could change the technical picture, although the 50 and 200-day moving averages are just below for possible support on any more downside action.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) created a positive outside reversal day, one of the most bullish technical formations. The open gap will have us looking over our shoulder for the next potential pullback, but for now the index is heading toward its highs again. Maybe we'll get a double top or this is a bear trap, etc., and another major pullback is around the corner, but for now, the action is good.
The market leaders are following along as the Transportation index did post another new all-time high yesterday with a 2.5% gain.
The small caps of the Russell 2000 aren't doing quite as well as the Transports, but the reversal day does suggest more upside in the coming days.
The S&P 500 has been up 8 of the last 9 days, with the Nasdaq up 9 days in a row. The next down day may bring out the bears again, and we're always one headline away from another panic sell off, but the dip buyers are in charge right now. Like the 2025 tariff tantrum, many hedge funds and money mangers are underinvested, if not short the stock market, and that could set up continued upside if they are forced to buy into the dips to catch up.
We'll get the PPI producer prices data this morning. Forecasts are looking for a 1.3% gain and a 4.1% year over year gain. Core PPI (excludes food and energy) estimates are +0.5% and +3.7%.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) had a big day with a positive reversal day, but not quite an outside reversal day which tends to be a more bullish indication, but just because it didn't take out Friday's lows yesterday doesn't make this any less impressive. The large gap is still open below so, yada, yada, yada, that could eventually get filled, but for now, the bulls have taken charge -- at least until the next geopolitical fallout.
ACWX (I-fund) lagged, perhaps because the price of oil was up, but also because many of the overseas markets were closed when the US market started to pull away on the upside. But despite lagging, it also created a positive outside reversal day.
BND (bonds / F-fund) traded within the range of the narrowing wedge formation, so a resolution should be coming at some point this week. Technically the upside looks more promising, but the is an open gap below that could try to pull it back again first.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
After a brutal Sunday night futures session, stocks opened sharply lower on Monday, but off the overnight lows, and once that opening bell rang on Monday morning, the dip buyers were quick to do their thing with one late surge to the upside in the final 30 minutes of trading. Some indices created positive outside reversal days, leaving their open gaps behind -- for now.
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The final market breadth was quite positive, which was a reversal of the morning action. The Nasdaq had more than five shares trading on the upside for every one on the downside. Pretty impressive considering this was the 9th straight gain for the Nasdaq so the momentum is strong but maybe signs of getting too lofty?
The price of oil was up yesterday but it closed well off the highs creating a negative reversal day, but it remains above rising support for now.
The 10-year Treasury Yield followed the oil trade and posted a negative reversal day, erasing the morning gains and creating a failed breakout above the resistance line. That is still a bull flag but yesterday's action could change the technical picture, although the 50 and 200-day moving averages are just below for possible support on any more downside action.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) created a positive outside reversal day, one of the most bullish technical formations. The open gap will have us looking over our shoulder for the next potential pullback, but for now the index is heading toward its highs again. Maybe we'll get a double top or this is a bear trap, etc., and another major pullback is around the corner, but for now, the action is good.
The market leaders are following along as the Transportation index did post another new all-time high yesterday with a 2.5% gain.
The small caps of the Russell 2000 aren't doing quite as well as the Transports, but the reversal day does suggest more upside in the coming days.
The S&P 500 has been up 8 of the last 9 days, with the Nasdaq up 9 days in a row. The next down day may bring out the bears again, and we're always one headline away from another panic sell off, but the dip buyers are in charge right now. Like the 2025 tariff tantrum, many hedge funds and money mangers are underinvested, if not short the stock market, and that could set up continued upside if they are forced to buy into the dips to catch up.
We'll get the PPI producer prices data this morning. Forecasts are looking for a 1.3% gain and a 4.1% year over year gain. Core PPI (excludes food and energy) estimates are +0.5% and +3.7%.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) had a big day with a positive reversal day, but not quite an outside reversal day which tends to be a more bullish indication, but just because it didn't take out Friday's lows yesterday doesn't make this any less impressive. The large gap is still open below so, yada, yada, yada, that could eventually get filled, but for now, the bulls have taken charge -- at least until the next geopolitical fallout.
ACWX (I-fund) lagged, perhaps because the price of oil was up, but also because many of the overseas markets were closed when the US market started to pull away on the upside. But despite lagging, it also created a positive outside reversal day.
BND (bonds / F-fund) traded within the range of the narrowing wedge formation, so a resolution should be coming at some point this week. Technically the upside looks more promising, but the is an open gap below that could try to pull it back again first.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
