tsptalk's Market Talk

[Birchtree]

An opportunity for some to get out as well as an opportunity for some to get in - market volatility. Nothing to be concerned about at this point.

 

[tsptalk]

Hitting the 1525 area again. I'll keep a toe in the water (stock funds) but I lightened some up on Friday, and again this morning, adding to the G fund. Effective COB today I'll be 40% stocks.

The seasonality is strong in first few days of March, but at this pace I may be 100% G fund by the end of this week.

If we have what looks like could be a negative reversal day... showing before the deadline, I may change this allocation getting even more defensive.

Sure wish we had until the end of the day to make a decision. As it is now (11:39 AM ET) we have a negative reversal day on the chart and that is enough for me to just go ahead and go 100% G fund COB today, instead of the 60% G I mentioned earlier.

 

[rktect1]

I'm just shaking my head.

Good luck to everyone.

 

[wavecoder]

I'm just shaking my head.

Good luck to everyone.

on the bright side you'll likely finish this month as #1 and earn your TSP mug. you might be the fastest to ever do this since signing up?

 

[rktect1]

I'm not as new as you think

 

[wavecoder]

I'm not as new as you think

new to the board at least, unless you went by another sn?

I know you aren't new to investing, if that's what you thought I was implying, you obviously know what you're doing.

 

[wavecoder]

the dollar just took off like a rocket, holy crap.

VIX almost up 20%...

 

[Birchtree]

Not to worry - it'll just take longer for it to drop to the 10 level. I'd welcome for it to run...

 

[wavecoder]

Hey Tom, if you're reading this, do you have any info on what happened the last time the VIX climbed over 30% in a day? In my limited experience I've never seen such a thing.

 

[Birchtree]

We'll see frightening retracements and here comes one now - duck but hold. It's a panic type sell and healthy.

 

[tsptalk]

On February 19, I wrote this in my commentary:

I saw a "Black Swan" indicator yesterday that looked interesting showing that the chances of a black swan type sell-off is rising fast and likely to appear within the next 30 days. We'll see.

It just dawned on me that this Cyprus mess could be that black swan. There is debate going on about how much affect this will or should have on our markets, but this morning's sell-off is related to the Russian response to Cyprus, so whether we like it or not, this will be one of those events that will move the market one way or the other, depending on the headline of the day.

The market often uses different catalysts to determine direction. a while back it was the price of gold, it was oil, Japanese or China stocks, sometimes Europe and the euro, etc. Today it seems to be Cyprus.

 

[Birchtree]

Look up, it's a bird, it's a plane, no it's the Hindenberg Omen. Now that would probably shake a few of those S funder buy and holds to the sidelines.

 

[tsptalk]

There's that reversal day I was looking for in today's commentary.

Of course we'll have to see how the dip buyers react before the close.

 

[Boghie]

Opportunity to buy...

I'm going to let is ride like Tom says. If dip buyers immediately buy in than this isn't the dip I'm looking for. Got a big chunk in G/F looking for a nice spot...

 

[Talan150]

Stochastics crossed by 7...MACD crossed by .5....Spinning top candlestick pattern.... End of first quarter coming up...I'm out til April. 100G

 

[tsptalk]

 

[FAB1]

Michael turned bullish on stocks in March of 2009 and rode the bear market rally from a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 6,440 on March 9, 2009, to 13,437 on
September 28, 2012—a gain of 109%.

Well he got out too soon, coulda made a few more % like some TSPtalkers.

Guess he was due to make a mistake -- or two or three.

 

[tsptalk]

Who's Michael?


In an attempt to use one of my IFT's for March and try to beat the G fund this month I think I'll jump with an IFT for a quick trade in this back and forth market. May sell tomorrow - not sure. (This is the signal that the top is in)

 

[tsptalk]

SentimenTrader Home

 

[Boghie]

Looks like the Dumb Money bailed, and the predators are buying the dip.
Is there any way we can figure out if the big money is moving cash to equities? Or, is it new money coming in?

I kinda want the above chart - to a degree. Been waiting for a 3 - 10 day correction to move my dead assets back into equities. My Market Timing Globe was kinda cloudy. Been so for a few years, but the returns still haven't been too bad...